Craig W. Trumbo

The Function of Credibility in Information Processing for Risk Perception

This study examines how credibility affects the way people process information and how they subsequently perceive risk. Three conceptual areas are brought together in this analysis: the psychometric model of risk perception, Eagly and Chaikens heuristic-systematic information processing model, and Meyers credibility index. Data come from a study of risk communication in the circumstance of state health department investigations of suspected cancer clusters (five cases, N = 696). Credibility is assessed for three information sources: state health departments, citizen groups, and industries involved in each case. Higher credibility for industry and the state directly predicts lower risk perception, whereas high credibility for citizen groups predicts greater risk perception. A path model shows that perceiving high credibility for industry and state-and perceiving low credibility for citizen groups-promotes heuristic processing, which in turn is a strong predictor of lower risk perception. Alternately, perceiving industry and the state to have low credibility also promotes greater systematic processing, which consistently leads to perception of greater risk. Between a one-fifth and one-third of the effect of credibility on risk perception is shown to be indirectly transmitted through information processing.

Heuristic‐Systematic Information Processing and Risk Judgment

The heuristic-systematic information processing model (HSM) holds that individuals will use one or both of these modes of information processing when attempting to evaluate information in order to arrive at a judgment. Systematic processing is defined by effortful scrutiny and comparison of information, whereas heuristic processing is defined by the use of cues to arrive more easily at a judgment. Antecedents to the two processing modes include information sufficiency, motivation, and self-efficacy. Structural equation modeling is used to examine competing configuration of this model and to evaluate the model as appropriate for predicting risk judgment. The model also is evaluated across three groups that vary with respect to their level of concern. These analyses are executed within a case study involving an epidemiological investigation of a suspected cancer cluster. The analysis confirms the HSMs theoretically proposed structure and shows it to be a useful vehicle for evaluating risk judgment. In the overall analysis, antecedent variables generally function as specified by theory. Systematic processing is predicted by greater motivation. Heuristic processing is predicted by information sufficiency. Self-efficacy is a significant predictor of both processing modes. And heuristic processing is shown to be associated with judgment of less risk. However, when the analysis is contrasted across three groups (those concerned about cancer, not concerned and uncertain) it is shown that the model is significantly more robust for the uncertain group. This finding may have implications for the use of the HSM in risk research specifically, and in field research generally.

Social research on climate change: where we have been, where we are, and where we might go

The greenhouse effect, global warming, global climate change: the environmental phenomenon so important that it needs three names. Whatever one calls it, climate change is undoubtedly one of the most important environmental issues for the new century; it has been the focus of one of the most impressively coordinated international scientific efforts in recent memory. Moreover, the communication and sociological literatures—not to mention the content of this special issue of Public Understanding of Science—feature a growing variety of by-lines devoted to social research on climate change. Why is this an important topic for social researchers; why does it merit attention in a special issue of this journal? Since the close of the nineteenth century, scientists have been concerned about the effect that humans might be having on the atmosphere through the emission of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases. Accurate measurements of atmospheric carbon dioxide levels began in 1957; they show that we are rapidly approaching a doubling relative to preIndustrial Revolution levels. During the 1980s, climatologists made significant advances in understanding planetary climate using computer analyses known as Global Circulation Models. Though the models are still relatively crude (compared to the actual climate), they began to bring climatology toward some understanding with respect to the question of human influence over climate. In the parlance of climatology, it was a search for a “human fingerprint,” the “smoking gun” of climate change research. Eventually, the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) announced that its group of some 1,500 scientists representing 60 nations had come to a consensus that the fingerprint had been found, and that the planet’s average temperature would increase between about 1.5 ◦ and 6 ◦ Fahrenheit over the next 100 years. But even with that remarkable consensus, there was (and still is) considerable disagreement over what this could actually mean. A few foresee a warmer but wetter world, while others predict a wilder world as weather becomes more extreme, agricultural patterns shift, and sea levels rise. While the degree and speed of such change is uncertain, the consensus remains that climate will change in ways that influence both ecological and human social systems. 1 Recent research based on ice core samples has suggested that paleoclimate has shifted dramatically over very short periods of time—heightening the concern of many about our ability to adapt to what may lie in the future. 2 Other studies have shown that different, and conflicting, temperature trends exist at different levels of the atmosphere—adding some equivocal evidence to the argument. 3 And even important scientists such as James Hansen of NASA have added to the confusion by questioning the reliability and accuracy of the various models used to predict climate. 4

The Effect of Proximity to Hurricanes Katrina and Rita on Subsequent Hurricane Outlook and Optimistic Bias

This study evaluated how individuals living on the Gulf Coast perceived hurricane risk after Hurricanes Katrina and Rita. It was hypothesized that hurricane outlook and optimistic bias for hurricane risk would be associated positively with distance from the Katrina-Rita landfall (more optimism at greater distance), controlling for historically based hurricane risk and county population density, demographics, individual hurricane experience, and dispositional optimism. Data were collected in January 2006 through a mail survey sent to 1,375 households in 41 counties on the coast (n = 824, 60% response). The analysis used hierarchal regression to test hypotheses. Hurricane history and population density had no effect on outlook; individuals who were male, older, and with higher household incomes were associated with lower risk perception; individual hurricane experience and personal impacts from Katrina and Rita predicted greater risk perception; greater dispositional optimism predicted more optimistic outlook; distance had a small effect but predicted less optimistic outlook at greater distance (model R(2) = 0.21). The model for optimistic bias had fewer effects: age and community tenure were significant; dispositional optimism had a positive effect on optimistic bias; distance variables were not significant (model R(2) = 0.05). The study shows that an existing measure of hurricane outlook has utility, hurricane outlook appears to be a unique concept from hurricane optimistic bias, and proximity has at most small effects. Future extension of this research will include improved conceptualization and measurement of hurricane risk perception and will bring to focus several concepts involving risk communication.

Use and Perception of Electronic Cigarettes Among College Students

Abstract Objective: This study provides insight into how electronic cigarettes (e-cigarettes) may affect the social normative environment for tobacco use among college students. Participants: Participants were 244 freshman and sophomore students. Methods: Students completed an online self-report survey in April 2011. Results: There is a higher acceptance rate of e-cigarette smoking in public than traditional tobacco. For intention to use an e-cigarette, the strongest predictor is current tobacco use, followed by a positive orientation toward public use of e-cigarettes. Positive orientation toward public use of e-cigarettes is significantly predicted by the use of alternate tobacco, intention to use or try e-cigarettes, positive orientation toward public use of tobacco, positive attitude toward e-cigarettes, positive perception of social norms for use of e-cigarettes, and favorable orientation toward e-cigarettes as an innovation. Conclusions: These models suggest attitudinal, social normative, innovation, and behavioral factors may combine to bring the e-cigarette into wider use among college students.

The effect of electronic cigarette advertising on intended use among college students.

INTRODUCTION . Aside from prohibiting health claims, there are presently no restrictions on electronic cigarette advertising in the U.S. Studies have shown college students have a positive view of e-cigarettes and use on campuses is increasing. The purpose of this study was to test if the appeal of e-cigarette advertisements and beliefs about the addictiveness of e-cigarettes may affect their uptake among college students. METHODS The study was framed within the Theory of Reasoned Action, which posits that behavioral intention can be understood in terms of social norms and attitudes toward a behavior. We also included variables capturing appeal of e-cigarette advertisements, belief that e-cigarettes are not as addictive as cigarettes, and tobacco use. Attitudes toward e-cigarettes, perceived norms concerning their use, beliefs that e-cigarettes are not as addictive as cigarettes, and positive appraisal of e-cigarette advertising videos were all hypothesized to be independently positively associated with intention to use an e-cigarette. Data were collected through a survey of students at a major U.S. university (participation rate 78%, N=296). Participants were exposed to three e-cigarette video advertisements in random order. RESULTS In a regression analysis we found positive reaction to the ads and holding the belief that e-cigarettes are not as addictive were both independently associated with intention. Attitudes and norms were also associated but were controlled by inclusion of the other variables. CONCLUSIONS These findings suggest that advertising may promote the uptake of e-cigarettes and may do so in addition to current smoking and alternate tobacco use status.

Public Meetings About Suspected Cancer Clusters: The Impact of Voice, Interactional Justice, and Risk Perception on Attendees' Attitudes in Six Communities

Holding a public meeting is a frequent method of communicating with community residents during official investigations into possible cancer clusters; however, there has been little formal research into the effectiveness of this method of health communication. This article presents research examining the influence of public meetings held during ongoing cancer cluster investigations in six U.S. communities. Drawing on social psychological theories of organizational justice, it examines the degree to which three specific elements of justice, including having a voice in the process, receiving fair interactional treatment, and facing equal risk of loss (i.e., cancer), influenced five outcome variables: meeting satisfaction, community connectedness, willingness to accept meeting outcomes or recommendations, willingness to attend future public meetings, and concern about the potential cancer cluster. The analysis of data collected from meeting attendees who responded to the mailed survey (N = 165) confirms a strong role for justice concerns in public meeting evaluations. In particular, perceptions of voice and interactional treatment had consistently large effects on the outcome variables, suggesting that managing a fair public engagement process can contribute to positive civic outcomes even during periods of heightened community concern about area cancer rates.

Use of E-Mail and the Web by Science Writers

The authors report data from two surveys of the National Association of Science Writers conducted in 1994 and 1999 to investigate e-mail and Web use by science journalists. Results show that task and social e-mail use have expanded dramatically. Also, the Web has become a regular part of science journalism. Enthusiasm for the use of the Web is a function of a positive orientation toward the quality of Web information, trust in the sources behind Web information, and individual characteristics of connectedness. The authors conclude with qualitative interviews with five science writers who provide supporting anecdotal evidence.

Individual‐ and Community‐Level Effects on Risk Perception in Cancer Cluster Investigations

This article focuses on the relative influence of individual versus community effects on risk perception. The study is grounded in literature examining how individuals manage information and make risk judgments in the context of suspected environmental cancer threats. We focus on three individual-level perspectives: the psychometric model of risk perception, an adaptation of the heuristic-systematic information processing model, and cancer anxiety. We also evaluate five sets of community-level variables that frame cancer cluster investigations: demographic, epidemiologic, sociologic, etiologic, and pathologic. Data were collected through a mail survey of 30 communities in which cancer cluster investigations were being conducted. Response rates averaged 43%, with 1,111 records in the final data set. Through multilevel modeling and other techniques, the results show that the individual-level model developed in previous work remains a robust description of risk perception in these cases. However, the analysis also shows that the community-level measures neither improve the individual-level model nor offer any substantial explanatory power of their own. We provisionally conclude that, within the context of cancer cluster investigations, risk perception is a phenomenon located in a common psychological dimension that is substantially independent of contextual influences. We also suggest that risk communication efforts in this specific context might successfully draw from a common approach informed more by individual than community factors.

Institutional trust, information processing and perception of environmental cancer risk

This paper examines how institutional trust affects the way in which people process information and perceive risk. Data come from a study of risk perception in the circumstance of US state health department investigations of suspected cancer clusters, with 30 cases examined (n = 1,111). Trust is assessed for three information sources: state health departments, civic groups and industries involved in each case. Higher trust for the state directly predicts lower risk perception, while high trust for civic groups predicts greater risk perception. Perceiving high trust for industry and state – and low trust for civic groups–promotes heuristic processing, which in turn predicts lower risk perception. Alternately, perceiving industry to have low trust and civic groups to have high trust promotes greater systematic processing, which consistently leads to perception of greater risk. Almost all of the effect of industry trust on risk is expressed indirectly.