Cristiano Cantore

A Fiscal Stimulus and Jobless Recovery

We analyze the effects of a government-spending expansion in a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with Mortensen–Pissarides labor-market frictions, deep habits in private and public consumption, investment adjustment costs, a constant elasticity of substitution (CES) production function, and adjustments in employment at both intensive and extensive margins. The combination of deep habits and CES technology is crucial. The presence of deep habits magnifies the responses of macroeconomic variables to a fiscal stimulus, while an elasticity of substitution between capital and labor in the range of available estimates allows the model to produce a scenario compatible with the observed jobless recovery.

Interpreting the Hours-Technology time-varying relationship

We investigate the time varying relation between hours and technology shocks using a structural business cycle model. We propose an RBC model with a Constant Elasticity of Substitution (CES) production function that allows for capital- and labor-augmenting technology shocks. We estimate the model with Bayesian techniques. In the full sample, we find (i) evidence in favor of a less than unitary elasticity of substitution (rejecting Cobb-Douglas) and (ii) a sizable role for capital augmenting shock for business cycles fluctuations. In rolling sub-samples, we document that the transmission of technology shocks to hours worked has been varying over time. We argue that this change is due to the increase of the elasticity of factor substitution. That is, labor and capital became less complementary throughout the sample inducing a change in the sign and size of the response of hours. We conjecture that this change may have been induced by a change in the skill composition of the labor input.

Optimal Fiscal and Monetary Policy, Debt Crisis and Management

The initial government debt-to-GDP ratio and the government’s commitment play a pivotal role in determining the welfare-optimal speed of fiscal consolidation in the management of a debt crisis. Under commitment, for low or moderate initial government debt-to-GPD ratios, the optimal consolidation is very slow. A faster pace is optimal when the economy starts from a high level of public debt implying high sovereign risk premia, unless these are suppressed via a bailout by official creditors. Under discretion, the cost of not being able to commit is reflected into a quick consolidation of government debt. Simple monetary-fiscal rules with passive fiscal policy, designed for an environment with “normal shocks”, perform reasonably well in mimicking the Ramsey-optimal response to one-off government debt shocks. When the government can issue also long-term bonds – under commitment – the optimal debt consolidation pace is slower than in the case of short-term bonds only, and entails an increase in the ratio between long and short-term bonds.

The science and art of DSGE modelling: I – construction and Bayesian estimation

Contents: 1. Introduction Nigar Hashimzade and Michael A. Thornton 2. A Review of Econometric Concepts and Methods for Empirical Macroeconomics Kerry Patterson and Michael A. Thornton PART I: PROPERTIES OF MACROECONOMIC DATA 3. Trends, Cycles and Structural Breaks Terence C. Mills 4. Unit Roots, Non-linearities and Structural Breaks Niels Haldrup, Robinson Kruse, Timo Terasvirta and Rasmus T. Varneskov 5. Filtering Macroeconomic Data D.S.G. Pollock PART II: MODELS FOR MACROECONOMIC DATA ANALYSIS 6. Vector Autoregressive Models Helmut Lutkepohl 7. Cointegration and Error Correction James Davidson 8. Estimation and Inference in Threshold Type Regime Switching Models Jesus Gonzalo and Jean-Yves Pitarakis 9. Testing Structural Stability in Macroeconometric Models Otilia Boldea and Alastair R. Hall 10. Dynamic Panel Data Models Badi H. Baltagi 11. Factor Models Jorg Breitung and In Choi 12. Conditional Heteroskedasticity in Macroeconomic Data: UK Inflation, Output Growth and their Uncertainties Menelaos Karanasos and Ning Zeng 13. Temporal Aggregation in Macroeconomics Michael A. Thornton and Marcus J. Chambers PART III: ESTIMATION AND EVALUATION FRAMEWORKS IN MACROECONOMICS 14. Generalized Method of Moments Alastair R. Hall 15. Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Time Series Models: The Kalman Filter and Beyond Tommaso Proietti and Alessandra Luati 16. Bayesian Methods Luc Bauwens and Dimitris Korobilis 17. Forecasting in Macroeconomics Raffaella Giacomini and Barbara Rossi PART IV: APPLICATIONS I: DYNAMIC STOCHASTIC GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM MODELS 18. The Science and Art of DSGE Modelling: I - Construction and Bayesian Estimation Cristiano Cantore, Vasco J. Gabriel, Paul Levine, Joseph Pearlman and Bo Yang 19. The Science and Art of DSGE Modelling: II - Model Comparisons, Model Validation, Policy Analysis and General Discussion Cristiano Cantore, Vasco J. Gabriel, Paul Levine, Joseph Pearlman and Bo Yang 20. Generalized Method of Moments Estimation of DSGE Models Francisco J. Ruge-Murcia 21. Bayesian Estimation of DSGE Models Pablo A. Guerron-Quintana and James M. Nason PART V: APPLICATIONS II: VECTOR AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELS 22. Structural Vector Autoregressions Lutz Kilian 23. Vector Autoregressive Models for Macroeconomic Policy Analysis Soyoung Kim PART VI: APPLICATIONS III: CALIBRATION AND SIMULATIONS 24. Calibration and Simulation of DSGE Models Paul Gomme and Damba Lkhagvasuren 25. Simulation and Estimation of Macroeconomic Models in Dynare Joao Madeira IndexFinancial support from the ESRC is gratefully acknowledged. Address for Correspondence: Jean-Yves Pitarakis, University of Southampton, School of Social Sciences, Economics Division, Southampton, SO17 1BJ, United-Kingdom. Email: j.pitarakis@soton.ac.uk

The science and art of DSGE modelling: II – model comparisons, model validation, policy analysis and general discussion

Contents: 1. Introduction Nigar Hashimzade and Michael A. Thornton 2. A Review of Econometric Concepts and Methods for Empirical Macroeconomics Kerry Patterson and Michael A. Thornton PART I: PROPERTIES OF MACROECONOMIC DATA 3. Trends, Cycles and Structural Breaks Terence C. Mills 4. Unit Roots, Non-linearities and Structural Breaks Niels Haldrup, Robinson Kruse, Timo Terasvirta and Rasmus T. Varneskov 5. Filtering Macroeconomic Data D.S.G. Pollock PART II: MODELS FOR MACROECONOMIC DATA ANALYSIS 6. Vector Autoregressive Models Helmut Lutkepohl 7. Cointegration and Error Correction James Davidson 8. Estimation and Inference in Threshold Type Regime Switching Models Jesus Gonzalo and Jean-Yves Pitarakis 9. Testing Structural Stability in Macroeconometric Models Otilia Boldea and Alastair R. Hall 10. Dynamic Panel Data Models Badi H. Baltagi 11. Factor Models Jorg Breitung and In Choi 12. Conditional Heteroskedasticity in Macroeconomic Data: UK Inflation, Output Growth and their Uncertainties Menelaos Karanasos and Ning Zeng 13. Temporal Aggregation in Macroeconomics Michael A. Thornton and Marcus J. Chambers PART III: ESTIMATION AND EVALUATION FRAMEWORKS IN MACROECONOMICS 14. Generalized Method of Moments Alastair R. Hall 15. Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Time Series Models: The Kalman Filter and Beyond Tommaso Proietti and Alessandra Luati 16. Bayesian Methods Luc Bauwens and Dimitris Korobilis 17. Forecasting in Macroeconomics Raffaella Giacomini and Barbara Rossi PART IV: APPLICATIONS I: DYNAMIC STOCHASTIC GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM MODELS 18. The Science and Art of DSGE Modelling: I - Construction and Bayesian Estimation Cristiano Cantore, Vasco J. Gabriel, Paul Levine, Joseph Pearlman and Bo Yang 19. The Science and Art of DSGE Modelling: II - Model Comparisons, Model Validation, Policy Analysis and General Discussion Cristiano Cantore, Vasco J. Gabriel, Paul Levine, Joseph Pearlman and Bo Yang 20. Generalized Method of Moments Estimation of DSGE Models Francisco J. Ruge-Murcia 21. Bayesian Estimation of DSGE Models Pablo A. Guerron-Quintana and James M. Nason PART V: APPLICATIONS II: VECTOR AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELS 22. Structural Vector Autoregressions Lutz Kilian 23. Vector Autoregressive Models for Macroeconomic Policy Analysis Soyoung Kim PART VI: APPLICATIONS III: CALIBRATION AND SIMULATIONS 24. Calibration and Simulation of DSGE Models Paul Gomme and Damba Lkhagvasuren 25. Simulation and Estimation of Macroeconomic Models in Dynare Joao Madeira IndexFinancial support from the ESRC is gratefully acknowledged. Address for Correspondence: Jean-Yves Pitarakis, University of Southampton, School of Social Sciences, Economics Division, Southampton, SO17 1BJ, United-Kingdom. Email: j.pitarakis@soton.ac.uk