Cristiano Varin

Pairwise likelihood inference in spatial generalized linear mixed models

Spatial generalized linear mixed models are flexible models for a variety of applications, where spatially dependent and non-Gaussian random variables are observed. The focus is inference in spatial generalized linear mixed models for large data sets. Maximum likelihood or Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo approaches may in such cases be computationally very slow or even prohibitive. Alternatively, one may consider a composite likelihood, which is the product of likelihoods of subsets of data. In particular, a composite likelihood based on pairs of observations is adopted. In order to maximize the pairwise likelihood, a new expectation-maximization-type algorithm which uses numerical quadrature is introduced. The method is illustrated on simulated data and on data from air pollution effects for fish populations in Norwegian lakes. A comparison with alternative methods is given. The proposed algorithm is found to give reasonable parameter estimates and to be computationally efficient.

Pairwise Likelihood Inference for General State Space Models

This article concerns parameter estimation for general state space models, following a frequentist likelihood-based approach. Since exact methods for computing and maximizing the likelihood function are usually not feasible, approximate solutions, based on Monte Carlo or numerical methods, have to be considered. Here, we concentrate on a different approach based on a simple pseudolikelihood, called “pairwise likelihood.” Its merit is to reduce the computational burden so that it is possible to fit highly structured statistical models, even when the use of standard likelihood methods is not possible. We discuss pairwise likelihood inference for state space models, and we present some touchstone examples concerning autoregressive models with additive observation noise and switching regimes, the local level model and a non-Makovian generalization of the dynamic Tobit model.

A pairwise likelihood approach to generalized linear models with crossed random effects

Inference in generalized linear models with crossed effects is often made cumbersome by the high-dimensional intractable integrals involved in the likelihood function. We propose an inferential strategy based on the pairwise likelihood, which only requires the computation of bivariate distributions. The benefits of our approach are the simplicity of implementation and the potential to handle large data sets. The estimators based on the pairwise likelihood are generally consistent and asymptotically normally distributed. The pairwise likelihood makes it possible to improve on standard inferential procedures by means of bootstrap methods. The performance of the proposed methodology is illustrated by simulations and application to the well-known salamander mating data set.

A comparison of the maximum simulated likelihood and composite marginal likelihood estimation approaches in the context of the multivariate ordered-response model

This chapter compares the performance of the maximum simulated likelihood (MSL) approach with the composite marginal likelihood (CML) approach in multivariate ordered-response situations. The ability of the two approaches to recover model parameters in simulated data sets is examined, as is the efficiency of estimated parameters and computational cost. Overall, the simulation results demonstrate the ability of the CML approach to recover the parameters very well in a 5–6 dimensional ordered-response choice model context. In addition, the CML recovers parameters as well as the MSL estimation approach in the simulation contexts used in this study, while also doing so at a substantially reduced computational cost. Further, any reduction in the efficiency of the CML approach relative to the MSL approach is in the range of nonexistent to small. When taken together with its conceptual and implementation simplicity, the CML approach appears to be a promising approach for the estimation of not only the multivariate ordered-response model considered here, but also for other analytically intractable econometric models.

Pairwise likelihood inference for ordinal categorical time series

Ordinal categorical time series may be analyzed as censored observations from a suitable latent stochastic process, which describes the underlying evolution of the system. This approach may be considered as an alternative to Markov chain models or to regression methods for categorical time series data. The problem of parameter estimation is solved through a simple pseudolikelihood, called pairwise likelihood. This inferential methodology is successfully applied to the class of autoregressive ordered probit models. Potential usefulness for inference and model selection within more general classes of models are also emphasized. Illustrations include simulation studies and two simple real data applications.

Random-effects meta-analysis: the number of studies matters

This paper investigates the impact of the number of studies on meta-analysis and meta-regression within the random-effects model framework. It is frequently neglected that inference in random-effects models requires a substantial number of studies included in meta-analysis to guarantee reliable conclusions. Several authors warn about the risk of inaccurate results of the traditional DerSimonian and Laird approach especially in the common case of meta-analysis involving a limited number of studies. This paper presents a selection of likelihood and non-likelihood methods for inference in meta-analysis proposed to overcome the limitations of the DerSimonian and Laird procedure, with a focus on the effect of the number of studies. The applicability and the performance of the methods are investigated in terms of Type I error rates and empirical power to detect effects, according to scenarios of practical interest. Simulation studies and applications to real meta-analyses highlight that it is not possible to identify an approach uniformly superior to alternatives. The overall recommendation is to avoid the DerSimonian and Laird method when the number of meta-analysis studies is modest and prefer a more comprehensive procedure that compares alternative inferential approaches. R code for meta-analysis according to all of the inferential methods examined in the paper is provided.

Gaussian Copula Marginal Regression

This paper identifies and develops the class of Gaussian copula models for marginal regression analysis of non-normal dependent observa- tions. The class provides a natural extension of traditional linear regression models with normal correlated errors. Any kind of continuous, discrete and categorical responses is allowed. Dependence is conveniently modelled in terms of multivariate normal errors. Inference is performed through a like- lihood approach. While the likelihood function is available in closed-form for continuous responses, in the non-continuous setting numerical approx- imations are used. Residual analysis and a specification test are suggested for validating the adequacy of the assumed multivariate model. Methodol- ogy is implemented in a R package called gcmr. Illustrations include simu- lations and real data applications regarding time series, cross-design data, longitudinal studies, survival analysis and spatial regression.

A Mixed Autoregressive Probit Model for Ordinal Longitudinal Data

Longitudinal data with binary and ordinal outcomes routinely appear in medical applications. Existing methods are typically designed to deal with short measurement series. In contrast, modern longitudinal data can result in large numbers of subject-specific serial observations. In this framework, we consider multivariate probit models with random effects to capture heterogeneity and autoregressive terms for describing the serial dependence. Since likelihood inference for the proposed class of models is computationally burdensome because of high-dimensional intractable integrals, a pseudolikelihood approach is followed. The methodology is motivated by the analysis of a large longitudinal study on the determinants of migraine severity.

Statistical modelling of citation exchange between statistics journals.

Summary Rankings of scholarly journals based on citation data are often met with scepticism by the scientific community. Part of the scepticism is due to disparity between the common perception of journals’ prestige and their ranking based on citation counts. A more serious concern is the inappropriate use of journal rankings to evaluate the scientific influence of researchers. The paper focuses on analysis of the table of cross‐citations among a selection of statistics journals. Data are collected from the Web of Science database published by Thomson Reuters. Our results suggest that modelling the exchange of citations between journals is useful to highlight the most prestigious journals, but also that journal citation data are characterized by considerable heterogeneity, which needs to be properly summarized. Inferential conclusions require care to avoid potential overinterpretation of insignificant differences between journal ratings. Comparison with published ratings of institutions from the UKs research assessment exercise shows strong correlation at aggregate level between assessed research quality and journal citation ‘export scores’ within the discipline of statistics.

The ranking lasso and its application to sport tournaments

Ranking a vector of alternatives on the basis of a series of paired comparisons is a relevant topic in many instances. A popular example is ranking contestants in sport tournaments. To this purpose, paired comparison models such as the Bradley-Terry model are often used. This paper suggests fitting paired comparison models with a lasso-type procedure that forces contestants with similar abilities to be classified into the same group. Benefits of the proposed method are easier interpretation of rankings and a significant improvement of the quality of predictions with respect to the standard maximum likelihood fitting. Numerical aspects of the proposed method are discussed in detail. The methodology is illustrated through ranking of the teams of the National Football League 2010-2011 and the American College Hockey Mens Division I 2009-2010.