Crystal A. Kolden

Relationships between climate and macroscale area burned in the western United States

Increased wildfire activity (e.g. number of starts, area burned, fire behaviour) across the western United States in recent decades has heightened interest in resolving climate–fire relationships. Macroscale climate–fire relationships were examined in forested and non-forested lands for eight Geographic Area Coordination Centers in the western United States, using area burned derived from the Monitoring Trends in Burn Severity dataset (1984–2010). Fire-specific biophysical variables including fire danger and water balance metrics were considered in addition to standard climate variables of monthly temperature, precipitation and drought indices to explicitly determine their optimal capacity to explain interannual variability in area burned. Biophysical variables tied to the depletion of fuel and soil moisture and prolonged periods of elevated fire-danger had stronger correlations to area burned than standard variables antecedent to or during the fire season, particularly in forested systems. Antecedent climate–fire relationships exhibited inter-region commonality with area burned in forested lands correlated with winter snow water equivalent and emergent drought in late spring. Area burned in non-forested lands correlated with moisture availability in the growing season preceding the fire year. Despite differences in the role of antecedent climate in preconditioning fuels, synchronous regional fire activity in forested and non-forested lands suggests that atmospheric conditions during the fire season unify fire activity and can compound or supersede antecedent climatic stressors. Collectively, climate–fire relationships viewed through the lens of biophysical variables provide a more direct link to fuel flammability and wildfire activity than standard climate variables, thereby narrowing the gap in incorporating top-down climatic factors between empirical and process-based fire models.

Climate change in western US deserts: potential for increased wildfire and invasive annual grasses.

Abstract Anthropogenic climate change is hypothesized to modify the spread of invasive annual grasses across the deserts of the western United States. The influence of climate change on future invasions depends on both climate suitability that defines a potential species range and the mechanisms that facilitate invasions and contractions. A suite of downscaled climate projections for the mid–21st century was used to examine changes in physically based mechanisms, including critical physiological temperature thresholds, the timing and availability of moisture, and the potential for large wildfires. Results suggest widespread changes in 1) the length of the freeze-free season that may favor cold-intolerant annual grasses, 2) changes in the frequency of wet winters that may alter the potential for establishment of invasive annual grasses, and 3) an earlier onset of fire season and a lengthening of the window during which conditions are conducive to fire ignition and growth furthering the fire-invasive feedback loop. We propose that a coupled approach combining bioclimatic envelope modeling with mechanistic modeling targeted to a given species can help land managers identify locations and species that pose the highest level of overall risk of conversion associated with the multiple stressors of climate change.

Fire behavior, weather, and burn severity of the 2007 anaktuvuk river tundra fire, North Slope, Alaska

Abstract In 2007, the Anaktuvuk River Fire (ARF) became the largest recorded tundra fire on the North Slope of Alaska. The ARF burned for nearly three months, consuming more than 100,000 ha. At its peak in early September, the ARF burned at a rate of 7000 ha d−1. The conditions potentially responsible for this large tundra fire include modeled record high summer temperature and record low summer precipitation, a late-season high-pressure system located over the Beaufort Sea, extremely dry soil conditions throughout the summer, and sustained southerly winds during the period of vegetation senescence. Burn severity mapping revealed that more than 80% of the ARF burned at moderate to extreme severity, while the nearby Kuparuk River Fire remained small and burned at predominantly (80%) low severity. While this study provides information that may aid in the prediction of future large tundra fires in northern Alaska, the fact that three other tundra fires that occurred in 2007 combined to burn less than 1000 ha suggests site specific complexities associated with tundra fires on the North Slope, which may hamper the development of tundra fire forecasting models.

Climate change presents increased potential for very large fires in the contiguous United States

Very large fires (VLFs) have important implications for communities, ecosystems, air quality and fire suppressionexpenditures.VLFsoverthecontiguousUShavebeenstronglylinkedwithmeteorologicalandclimatological variability. Building on prior modelling of VLFs (.5000 ha), an ensemble of 17 global climate models were statistically downscaled over the US for climate experiments covering the historic and mid-21st-century periods to estimate potential changes in VLF occurrence arising from anthropogenic climate change. Increased VLF potential was projected across most historically fire-prone regions, with the largest absolute increase in the intermountain West and Northern California. Complementary to modelled increases in VLF potential were changes in the seasonality of atmospheric conditions conducive to VLFs, including an earlier onset across the southern US and more symmetric seasonal extension in the northern regions. These projections provide insights into regional and seasonal distribution of VLF potential under a changing climate, and serve as a basis for future strategic and tactical fire management options.

Carbon stocks of trees killed by bark beetles and wildfire in the western United States

Forests are major components of the carbon cycle, and disturbances are important influences of forest carbon. Our objective was to contribute to the understanding of forest carbon cycling by quantifying the amount of carbon in trees killed by two disturbance types, fires and bark beetles, in the western United States in recent decades. We combined existing spatial data sets of forest biomass, burn severity, and beetle-caused tree mortality to estimate the amount of aboveground and belowground carbon in killed trees across the region. We found that during 1984‐2010, fires killed trees that contained 5‐11 Tg C year 1 and during 1997‐2010, beetles killed trees that contained 2‐24 Tg C year 1 , with more trees killed since 2000 than in earlier periods. Over their periods of record, amounts of carbon in trees killed by fires and by beetle outbreaks were similar, and together these disturbances killed trees representing 9% of the total tree carbon in western forests, a similar amount to harvesting. Fires killed more trees in lower-elevation forest types such as Douglas-fir than higher-elevation forest types, whereas bark beetle outbreaks also killed trees in higher-elevation forest types such as lodgepole pine and Engelmann spruce. Over 15% of the carbon in lodgepole pine and spruce/fir forest types was in trees killed by beetle outbreaks; other forest types had 5‐10% of the carbon in killed trees. Our results document the importance of these natural disturbances in the carbon budget of the western United States.

The Science of Firescapes: Achieving Fire-Resilient Communities

Abstract Wildland fire management has reached a crossroads. Current perspectives are not capable of answering interdisciplinary adaptation and mitigation challenges posed by increases in wildfire risk to human populations and the need to reintegrate fire as a vital landscape process. Fire science has been, and continues to be, performed in isolated “silos,” including institutions (e.g., agencies versus universities), organizational structures (e.g., federal agency mandates versus local and state procedures for responding to fire), and research foci (e.g., physical science, natural science, and social science). These silos tend to promote research, management, and policy that focus only on targeted aspects of the “wicked” wildfire problem. In this article, we provide guiding principles to bridge diverse fire science efforts to advance an integrated agenda of wildfire research that can help overcome disciplinary silos and provide insight on how to build fire-resilient communities.

Relative importance of weather and climate on wildfire growth in interior Alaska

Efforts to quantify relationships between climate and wildfire in Alaska have not yet explored the role of higher-frequency meteorological conditions on individual wildfire ignition and growth. To address this gap, meteorologi- cal data for 665 large fires that burned across the Alaskan interior between 1980 and 2007 were assessed to determine the respective influence of higher-frequency weather and lower-frequency climate, in terms of both antecedent and post- ignitionconditionsonfiregrowth.Antecedentclimateexhibitednodiscernableinfluenceoneventualfiresize.Incontrast, fire size was sensitive to weather in the days to weeks following ignition, particularly the post-ignition timing of precipitation. Prolonged periods of warm and dry conditions coincident with blocking that persists for several weeks after ignition enabled growth of large wildfires, whereas the return of wetting precipitation generally within a week after ignition inhibited growth of smaller wildfires. These results suggest that daily weather data are a critical predictor of fire growth and large fire potential and encourage their use in fire management and modelling.

Human exposure and sensitivity to globally extreme wildfire events

Extreme wildfires have substantial economic, social and environmental impacts, but there is uncertainty whether such events are inevitable features of the Earth’s fire ecology or a legacy of poor management and planning. We identify 478 extreme wildfire events defined as the daily clusters of fire radiative power from MODIS, within a global 10 × 10 km lattice, between 2002 and 2013, which exceeded the 99.997th percentile of over 23 million cases of the ΣFRP 100 km−2 in the MODIS record. These events are globally distributed across all flammable biomes, and are strongly associated with extreme fire weather conditions. Extreme wildfire events reported as being economically or socially disastrous (n = 144) were concentrated in suburban areas in flammable-forested biomes of the western United States and southeastern Australia, noting potential biases in reporting and the absence of globally comprehensive data of fire disasters. Climate change projections suggest an increase in days conducive to extreme wildfire events by 20 to 50% in these disaster-prone landscapes, with sharper increases in the subtropical Southern Hemisphere and European Mediterranean Basin.

Limitations and utilisation of Monitoring Trends in Burn Severity products for assessing wildfire severity in the USA

The Monitoring Trends in Burn Severity project is a comprehensive fire atlas for the United States that includesperimetersandseveritydataforallfiresgreaterthanaparticularsize(,400hainthewesternUS,and,200hain the eastern US). Although the database was derived for management purposes, the scientific community has expressed interest in its research capacity. As with any derived data, it is critical to understand inherent limitations to maximise the utility of the dataset without compromising the inferences. The classified severity product in particular is of limited use to research due to a lack of both consistency in developing class thresholds and empirical relationships with ecological metrics. Here we review the products available and their development process, and characterise and quantify the limitations of the classified burn severity data product based on the use of highly variable and subjective classification thresholds. We suggest a framework for overcoming these limitations by developing a more robust classified product that will support ecological management and applications. This framework utilises field data to develop consistent, ecologically based thresholds that incorporate existing ecoregion classifications from LANDFIRE or other fire management frameworks already widely integrated into planning efforts. Additional keywords: dNBR, Landsat, MTBS, RdNBR.

Vegetation, topography and daily weather influenced burn severity in central Idaho and western Montana forests

Burn severity as inferred from satellite-derived differenced Normalized Burn Ratio (dNBR) is useful for evaluating fire impacts on ecosystems but the environmental controls on burn severity across large forest fires are both poorly understood and likely to be different than those influencing fire extent. We related dNBR to environmental variables including vegetation, topography, fire danger indices, and daily weather for daily areas burned on 42 large forest fires in central Idaho and western Montana. The 353 fire days we analyzed burned 111,200 ha as part of large fires in 2005, 2006, 2007, and 2011. We expected that local “bottom-up” variables like topography and vegetation would influence burn severity, but that our use of daily dNBR and weather data would uncover stronger relationships between the two than previous studies have shown. We found that percent existing vegetation cover had the largest influence on burn severity, while weather variables like fine fuel moisture, relative humidity, and wind...