Arjan J. H. Meddens

Spatiotemporal patterns of observed bark beetle‐caused tree mortality in British Columbia and the western United States

Outbreaks of aggressive bark beetle species cause widespread tree mortality, affecting timber production, wildlife habitat, wildfire, forest composition and structure, biogeochemical cycling, and biogeophysical processes. As a result, agencies responsible for forest management in the United States and British Columbia conduct aerial surveys to map these forest disturbances. Here we combined aerial surveys from British Columbia (2001 2010) and the western conterminous United States (1997-2010), produced 1-km2 grids of the area of crown mortality from bark beetle attack, and analyzed spatial and temporal patterns. We converted aerial-survey polygon data for each combination of host type and bark beetle species available in the western United States, and for each bark beetle species available in British Columbia. We converted affected area (which includes live and killed trees) to mortality area (crown area of killed trees) using species-specific crown diameters and the number (U.S.) or percentage (British Columbia) of killed trees. In the United States we also produced an upper estimate of mortality area by forcing the mortality area to match that from high-resolution imagery in Idaho, Colorado, and New Mexico. Resulting adjustment factors of 3.7-20.9 illustrate the underestimate of mortality by the U.S. aerial surveys. The upper estimate, which we suggest is more realistic, better matched the spatial patterns and severity of the British Columbia mortality area. Cumulative mortality area from all bark beetles was 5.46 Mha in British Columbia in 2001-2010 and 0.47-5.37 Mha (lower and upper estimate) in the western conterminous United States during 1997-2010. We note that we report year of detection here; studies that consider year of tree mortality should shift the time series back one year. We conclude by discussing uses and limitations of these data in ecological studies, including uncertainties associated with assumptions in the methods, lack of complete coverage by surveys, and the subjective nature of the survey databases.

Cascading impacts of bark beetle‐caused tree mortality on coupled biogeophysical and biogeochemical processes

Recent, large-scale outbreaks of bark beetle infestations have affected millions of hectares of forest in western North America, covering an area similar in size to that impacted by fire. Bark beetles kill host trees in affected areas, thereby altering water supply, carbon storage, and nutrient cycling in forests; for example, the timing and amount of snow melt may be substantially modified following bark beetle infestation, which impacts water resources for many western US states. The quality of water from infested forests may also be diminished as a result of increased nutrient export. Understanding the impacts of bark beetle outbreaks on forest ecosystems is therefore important for resource management. Here, we develop a conceptual framework of the impacts on coupled biogeophysical and biogeochemical processes following a mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae) outbreak in lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta Douglas var latifolia) forests in the weeks to decades after an infestation, and highlight fu...

Observations and assessment of forest carbon dynamics following disturbance in North America

Disturbance processes of various types substantially modify ecosystem carbon dynamics both temporally and spatially, and constitute a fundamental part of larger landscape-level dynamics. Forests typically lose carbon for several years to several decades following severe disturbance, but our understanding of the duration and dynamics of post-disturbance forest carbon fluxes remains limited. Here we capitalize on a recent North American Carbon Program disturbance synthesis to discuss techniques and future work needed to better understand carbon dynamics after forest disturbance. Specifically, this paper addresses three topics: (1) the history, spatial distribution, and characteristics of different types of disturbance (in particular fire, insects, and harvest) in North America; (2) the integrated measurements and experimental designs required to quantify forest carbon dynamics in the years and decades after disturbance, as presented in a series of case studies; and (3) a synthesis of the greatest uncertainties spanning these studies, as well as the utility of multiple types of observations (independent but mutually constraining data) in understanding their dynamics. The case studies—in the southeast U.S., central boreal Canada, U.S. Rocky Mountains, and Pacific Northwest—explore how different measurements can be used to constrain and understand carbon dynamics in regrowing forests, with the most important measurements summarized for each disturbance type. We identify disturbance severity and history as key but highly uncertain factors driving post-disturbance carbon source-sink dynamics across all disturbance types. We suggest that imaginative, integrative analyses using multiple lines of evidence, increased measurement capabilities, shared models and online data sets, and innovative numerical algorithms hold promise for improved understanding and prediction of carbon dynamics in disturbance-prone forests.

Global satellite monitoring of climate-induced vegetation disturbances

Terrestrial disturbances are accelerating globally, but their full impact is not quantified because we lack an adequate monitoring system. Remote sensing offers a means to quantify the frequency and extent of disturbances globally. Here, we review the current application of remote sensing to this problem and offer a framework for more systematic analysis in the future. We recommend that any proposed monitoring system should not only detect disturbances, but also be able to: identify the proximate cause(s); integrate a range of spatial scales; and, ideally, incorporate process models to explain the observed patterns and predicted trends in the future. Significant remaining challenges are tied to the ecology of disturbances. To meet these challenges, more effort is required to incorporate ecological principles and understanding into the assessments of disturbance worldwide.

Carbon stocks of trees killed by bark beetles and wildfire in the western United States

Forests are major components of the carbon cycle, and disturbances are important influences of forest carbon. Our objective was to contribute to the understanding of forest carbon cycling by quantifying the amount of carbon in trees killed by two disturbance types, fires and bark beetles, in the western United States in recent decades. We combined existing spatial data sets of forest biomass, burn severity, and beetle-caused tree mortality to estimate the amount of aboveground and belowground carbon in killed trees across the region. We found that during 1984‐2010, fires killed trees that contained 5‐11 Tg C year 1 and during 1997‐2010, beetles killed trees that contained 2‐24 Tg C year 1 , with more trees killed since 2000 than in earlier periods. Over their periods of record, amounts of carbon in trees killed by fires and by beetle outbreaks were similar, and together these disturbances killed trees representing 9% of the total tree carbon in western forests, a similar amount to harvesting. Fires killed more trees in lower-elevation forest types such as Douglas-fir than higher-elevation forest types, whereas bark beetle outbreaks also killed trees in higher-elevation forest types such as lodgepole pine and Engelmann spruce. Over 15% of the carbon in lodgepole pine and spruce/fir forest types was in trees killed by beetle outbreaks; other forest types had 5‐10% of the carbon in killed trees. Our results document the importance of these natural disturbances in the carbon budget of the western United States.

Recent tree die‐off has little effect on streamflow in contrast to expected increases from historical studies

Recent bark beetle epidemics have caused regional-scale tree mortality in many snowmelt-dominated headwater catchments of western North America. Initial expectations of increased streamflow have not been supported by observations, and the basin-scale response of annual streamflow is largely unknown. Here we quantified annual streamflow responses during the decade following tree die-off in eight infested catchments in the Colorado River headwaters and one nearby control catchment. We employed three alternative empirical methods: (i) double-mass comparison between impacted and control catchments, (ii) runoff ratio comparison before and after die-off, and (iii) time-trend analysis using climate-driven linear models. In contrast to streamflow increases predicted by historical paired catchment studies and recent modeling, we did not detect streamflow changes in most basins following die-off, while one basin consistently showed decreased streamflow. The three analysis methods produced generally consistent results, with time-trend analysis showing precipitation was the strongest predictor of streamflow variability (R2 = 74–96%). Time-trend analysis revealed post-die-off streamflow decreased in three catchments by 11–29%, with no change in the other five catchments. Although counter to initial expectations, these results are consistent with increased transpiration by surviving vegetation and the growing body of literature documenting increased snow sublimation and evaporation from the subcanopy following die-off in water-limited, snow-dominated forests. The observations presented here challenge the widespread expectation that streamflow will increase following beetle-induced forest die-off and highlight the need to better understand the processes driving hydrologic response to forest disturbance.

Patterns and causes of observed piñon pine mortality in the southwestern United States

Recently, widespread piñon pine die-off occurred in the southwestern United States. Here we synthesize observational studies of this event and compare findings to expected relationships with biotic and abiotic factors. Agreement exists on the occurrence of drought, presence of bark beetles and increased mortality of larger trees. However, studies disagree about the influences of stem density, elevation and other factors, perhaps related to study design, location and impact of extreme drought. Detailed information about bark beetles is seldom reported and their role is poorly understood. Our analysis reveals substantial limits to our knowledge regarding the processes that produce mortality patterns across space and time, indicating a poor ability to forecast mortality in response to expected increases in future droughts.

Characterizing Forest Fragments in Boreal, Temperate, and Tropical Ecosystems

Abstract An increased ability to analyze landscapes in a spatial manner through the use of remote sensing leads to improved capabilities for quantifying human-induced forest fragmentation. Developments of spatially explicit methods in landscape analyses are emerging. In this paper, the image delineation software program eCognition and the spatial pattern analysis program FRAGSTATS were used to quantify patterns of forest fragments on six landscapes across three different climatic regions characterized by different moisture regimes and different influences of human pressure. Our results support the idea that landscapes with higher road and population density are more fragmented; however, there are other, equally influential factors contributing to fragmentation, such as moisture regime, historic land use, and fire dynamics. Our method provided an objective means to characterize landscapes and assess patterns of forest fragments across different forested ecosystems by addressing the limitations of pixel-based classification and incorporating image objects.

An Observational and Modeling Study of Impacts of Bark Beetle–Caused Tree Mortality on Surface Energy and Hydrological Cycles

AbstractBark beetle outbreaks have killed billions of trees and affected millions of hectares of forest during recent decades. The objective of this study was to quantify responses of surface energy and hydrologic fluxes 2–3 yr following a spruce beetle outbreak using measurements and modeling. The authors used observations at the Rocky Mountains Glacier Lakes Ecosystem Experiments Site (GLEES), where beetles killed 85% of the basal area of spruce from 2005–07 (prebeetle) to 2009/10 (postbeetle). Observations showed increased albedo following tree mortality, more reflected solar radiation, and less net radiation, but these postoutbreak radiation changes are smaller than or comparable to their annual preoutbreak variability. The dominant signals from observations were a large reduction (27%) in summer daytime evaporation and a large increase (25%) in sensible heat fluxes. Numerous Noah LSM with multiparameterization options (Noah-MP) simulations incorporating beetle-caused tree mortality effects were condu...

Landsat time series and lidar as predictors of live and dead basal area across five bark beetle-affected forests

Bark beetle-caused tree mortality affects important forest ecosystem processes. Remote sensing methodologies that quantify live and dead basal area (BA) in bark beetle-affected forests can provide valuable information to forest managers and researchers. We compared the utility of light detection and ranging (lidar) and the Landsat-based detection of trends in disturbance and recovery (LandTrendr) algorithm to predict total, live, dead, and percent dead BA in five bark beetle-affected forests in Alaska, Arizona, Colorado, Idaho, and Oregon, USA. The BA response variables were predicted from lidar and LandTrendr predictor variables using the random forest (RF) algorithm. RF models explained 28%-61% of the variation in BA responses. Lidar variables were better predictors of total and live BA, whereas LandTrendr variables were better predictors of dead and percent dead BA. RF models predicting percent dead BA were applied to lidar and LandTrendr grids to produce maps, which were then compared to a gridded dataset of tree mortality area derived from aerial detection survey (ADS) data. Spearman correlations of beetle-caused tree mortality metrics between lidar, LandTrendr, and ADS were low to moderate; low correlations may be due to plot sampling characteristics, RF model error, ADS data subjectivity, and confusion caused by the detection of other types of forest disturbance by LandTrendr. Provided these sources of error are not too large, our results show that lidar and LandTrendr can be used to predict and map live and dead BA in bark beetle-affected forests with moderate levels of accuracy.