Curtis J. Eberwein

Alternative methods of estimating program effects in event history models

Abstract This paper first investigates the sensitivity of estimates of duration models to the specification of duration dependence. Using data from an experiment involving disadvantaged women in the U.S., we find that estimates of the parameters of hazard models are not sensitive to the way one models duration dependence as long as one uses a flexible functional form. We find that estimates of the expected duration in a state are insensitive to the way one models duration dependence if long spells are observed in the data, but that these are very sensitive to the specification when there are only relatively short spells in the data. We propose and implement alternative summary measures based on the median duration in a spell and show that these are quite robust to the specification of duration dependence.

Testing for persistence in aggregate and sectoral Canadian unemployment

Persistence in aggregate and sectoral Canadian unemployment is tested for. Using the corrected for short-range dependency modified rescaled-range test, it is concluded that the fluctuations in aggregate and sectoral Canadian unemployment exhibit persistence. Policies aimed at reducing inflation should embody and account for the extra cost of sustained unemployment due to its persistence.

Estimating persistence in Canadian unemployment: evidence from a Bayesian ARFIMA

The degree of persistence in aggregate Canadian unemployment is estimated within a Bayesian ARFIMA class of models. The results conclude that unemployment exhibits persistence in the short and intermediate run. The evidence of persistence is stronger than previously reported by Koustas and Veloce (1996). This persistence cast a vital implication regarding disinflation policies, Based on the unemployment rate, these policies will prove very costly in terms of lost output and – if implemented – they considerably lengthen recessions.

Repeated bargaining and the role of impatience and incomplete contracting

Abstract This paper develops a model of firm/union bargaining in which bargaining is repeated. If contracts specify the values of all variables of interest, a players share of the surplus will decrease as that player becomes more impatient, but impatience has a much weaker effect than in static games. When the contracts do not specify the values of all relevant variables, this result can be reversed and the firms bargaining power could become greater as it becomes more impatient .

On the evidence of non-linear structure in Canadian unemployment

This study focuses on and examines the empirical evidence of non-linearity in aggregate Canadian unemployment. Contrary to the conclusion reached in many studies, and using a corrected for bias simple non-parametric test (SNT), the null hypothesis of a linear structure for Canadian unemployment is rejected.

Correcting estimates of expected durations from discrete-time hazard models

Abstract This paper proposes corrections for estimating expected durations when “discrete-hazard” models are used to estimate the duration distribution in a two-state, event-history model. The corrections are based on the assumption that the continuous-time hazard rates are approximately constant within periods and make no parametric assumptions about the duration dependence of the continuous-time hazard rates. The corrections will be useful for applied work, especially when the time interval for the discrete-time model is quite long, as in the case of the SIPP data. The corrections are evaluated using simulations and are found to be robust for many types of hazard rates that display duration dependence. So long as the assumption that the hazards are constant within periods is not extremely violated, the corrected estimates of the expected durations are substantially better than the uncorrected estimates. Even if the hazards do change by extreme amounts within periods, the simulations indicate that two of the estimators still do very well as long as the volatility in the hazard is not early in new spells. An empirical application is explored and one of the estimators is found to be quite successful in correcting the bias.

Intertemporal Non-separability and Dynamic Oligopoly

We construct a framework for modeling dynamic Cournot oligopoly. We consider models where utility maximizing consumers give rise to demand functions that depend on current and prior period prices. Future demand depends on the current price and consumers, and firms must take this into account when making their decisions. Focusing on problems that yield dynamic demand functions that are linear in current and prior period price, we characterize the unique Markov perfect equilibrium in linear strategies. We then demonstrate the applicability of our framework through a series of practical examples.