Ossama Mikhail

Testing for persistence in aggregate and sectoral Canadian unemployment

Persistence in aggregate and sectoral Canadian unemployment is tested for. Using the corrected for short-range dependency modified rescaled-range test, it is concluded that the fluctuations in aggregate and sectoral Canadian unemployment exhibit persistence. Policies aimed at reducing inflation should embody and account for the extra cost of sustained unemployment due to its persistence.

Estimating persistence in Canadian unemployment: evidence from a Bayesian ARFIMA

The degree of persistence in aggregate Canadian unemployment is estimated within a Bayesian ARFIMA class of models. The results conclude that unemployment exhibits persistence in the short and intermediate run. The evidence of persistence is stronger than previously reported by Koustas and Veloce (1996). This persistence cast a vital implication regarding disinflation policies, Based on the unemployment rate, these policies will prove very costly in terms of lost output and – if implemented – they considerably lengthen recessions.

On the evidence of non-linear structure in Canadian unemployment

This study focuses on and examines the empirical evidence of non-linearity in aggregate Canadian unemployment. Contrary to the conclusion reached in many studies, and using a corrected for bias simple non-parametric test (SNT), the null hypothesis of a linear structure for Canadian unemployment is rejected.

Economic Freedom and the Business Cycle: The Egyptian Experience

Most studies that emphasize and encourage the shift towards a less regulated and financially open system rest on the premise of a prosperous growth prospect. Accordingly, interests have focused on growth models as a framework to understand and to analyze the effects of economic freedom. In this paper, we investigate the short-run characteristics of economic freedom. Using a stochastic general equilibrium framework, we argue that economic reforms tend to ease periods of recessions, increase welfare, and alleviate the burden of unemployment. Calibrated to the Egyptian economy, we simulate our model and investigate the [robust] relationship between economic reforms and the business cycle.