D. James Baker

Climate change as an intergenerational problem

Predicting climate change is a high priority for society, but such forecasts are notoriously uncertain. Why? Even should climate prove theoretically predictable—by no means certain—the near-absence of adequate observations will preclude its understanding, and hence even the hope of useful predictions. Geological and cryospheric records of climate change and our brief recent record of instrumental observations show that the climate system is changeable on all time scales—from a few years out to the age of the earth. Major physical, chemical, and biological processes influence the climate system on decades, centuries, and millennia. Glaciers fluctuate on time scales of years to centuries and beyond. Since the Industrial Revolution, carbon dioxide has been emitted through fossil fuel burning, and it will be absorbed, recycled, and transferred amongst the atmosphere, ocean, and biosphere over decades to thousands of years.

On the delivery of weather services and parallels for the development of operational forest carbon measurement, reporting and verification systems

The UN Framework Convention on Climate Change has requested governments participating in Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation Plus to establish reference emission levels and maintain robust and transparent forest monitoring systems. While the measurement and data coordination technology is available, much work remains to be done to develop national monitoring capability and institutions in developing countries, and the international framework for these systems. This paper draws attention to the useful insights to be drawn from the evolution of the delivery of routine global weather information, which stems from a partnership between National Meteorological Services and the World Meteorological Organization. These insights are already aiding in the ongoing development of national systems as well as in the Global Forest Observations Initiative led by the intergovernmental Group on Earth Observations.