Charles H. Greene

A holistic view of marine regime shifts

Understanding marine regime shifts is important not only for ecology but also for developing marine management that assures the provision of ecosystem services to humanity. While regime shift theory is well developed, there is still no common understanding on drivers, mechanisms and characteristic of abrupt changes in real marine ecosystems. Based on contributions to the present theme issue, we highlight some general issues that need to be overcome for developing a more comprehensive understanding of marine ecosystem regime shifts. We find a great divide between benthic reef and pelagic ocean systems in how regime shift theory is linked to observed abrupt changes. Furthermore, we suggest that the long-lasting discussion on the prevalence of top-down trophic or bottom-up physical drivers in inducing regime shifts may be overcome by taking into consideration the synergistic interactions of multiple stressors, and the special characteristics of different ecosystem types. We present a framework for the holistic investigation of marine regime shifts that considers multiple exogenous drivers that interact with endogenous mechanisms to cause abrupt, catastrophic change. This framework takes into account the time-delayed synergies of these stressors, which erode the resilience of the ecosystem and eventually enable the crossing of ecological thresholds. Finally, considering that increased pressures in the marine environment are predicted by the current climate change assessments, in order to avoid major losses of ecosystem services, we suggest that marine management approaches should incorporate knowledge on environmental thresholds and develop tools that consider regime shift dynamics and characteristics. This grand challenge can only be achieved through a holistic view of marine ecosystem dynamics as evidenced by this theme issue.

Quantitative Uncertainty Analysis of Life Cycle Assessment for Algal Biofuel Production

As a result of algaes promise as a renewable energy feedstock, numerous studies have used Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) to quantify the environmental performance of algal biofuels, yet there is no consensus of results among them. Our work, motivated by the lack of comprehensive uncertainty analysis in previous studies, uses a Monte Carlo approach to estimate ranges of expected values of LCA metrics by incorporating parameter variability with empirically specified distribution functions. Results show that large uncertainties exist at virtually all steps of the biofuel production process. Although our findings agree with a number of earlier studies on matters such as the need for wet lipid extraction, nutrients recovered from waste streams, and high energy coproducts, the ranges of reported LCA metrics show that uncertainty analysis is crucial for developing technologies, such as algal biofuels. In addition, the ranges of energy return on (energy) invested (EROI) values resulting from our analysis help explain the high variability in EROI values from earlier studies. Reporting results from LCA models as ranges, and not single values, will more reliably inform industry and policy makers on expected energetic and environmental performance of biofuels produced from microalgae.

SOUND SCATTERING BY LIVE ZOOPLANKTON AND MICRONEKTON : EMPIRICAL STUDIES WITH A DUAL-BEAM ACOUSTICAL SYSTEM

Measurements and analyses are presented of the backscattering of 420‐kHz sound by 43 individual animals of representative zooplanktonic and micronektonic taxa. Direct measurements of an individual’s target strength were made with a commercial dual‐beam sonar system in an enclosure filled with filtered seawater deployed off a dock at Friday Harbor, Washington. The dependence of target stengths upon individual length, wet weight, and dry weight was investigated. In addition, the ‘‘target strength’’ and statistical variations of echo amplitude due to variations in shape and orientation of the organism were compared with acoustic scattering models involving different shapes (the general shapes of the sphere, and straight and uniformly bent finite cylinders were used along with attempts to take into account roughness). It was found that: (1) backscattering cross sections are proportional to volume of the organisms rather than area as would be predicted by a sphere scattering model, (2) mean target strength bas...

ARCTIC CLIMATE CHANGE AND ITS IMPACTS ON THE ECOLOGY OF THE NORTH ATLANTIC

Arctic climate change from the Paleocene epoch to the present is reconstructed with the objective of assessing its recent and future impacts on the ecology of the North Atlantic. A recurring theme in Earths paleoclimate record is the importance of the Arctic atmosphere, ocean, and cryosphere in regulating global climate on a variety of spatial and temporal scales. A second recurring theme in this record is the importance of freshwater export from the Arctic in regulating global- to basin-scale ocean circulation patterns and climate. Since the 1970s, historically unprecedented changes have been observed in the Arctic as climate warming has increased precipitation, river discharge, and glacial as well as sea-ice melting. In addition, modal shifts in the atmosphere have altered Arctic Ocean circulation patterns and the export of freshwater into the North Atlantic. The combination of these processes has resulted in variable patterns of freshwater export from the Arctic Ocean and the emergence of salinity anomalies that have periodically freshened waters in the North Atlantic. Since the early 1990s, changes in Arctic Ocean circulation patterns and freshwater export have been associated with two types of ecological responses in the North Atlantic. The first of these responses has been an ongoing series of biogeographic range expansions by boreal plankton, including renewal of the trans-Arctic exchanges of Pacific species with the Atlantic. The second response was a dramatic regime shift in the shelf ecosystems of the Northwest Atlantic that occurred during the early 1990s. This regime shift resulted from freshening and stratification of the shelf waters, which in turn could be linked to changes in the abundances and seasonal cycles of phytoplankton, zooplankton, and higher trophic-level consumer populations. It is predicted that the recently observed ecological responses to Arctic climate change in the North Atlantic will continue into the near future if current trends in sea ice, freshwater export, and surface ocean salinity continue. It is more difficult to predict ecological responses to abrupt climate change in the more distant future as tipping points in the Earths climate system are exceeded.

Zooplankton patch dynamics: daily gap formation over abrupt topography

Abstract Net tow and acoustic surveys of zooplankton distributions were made over and around Sixtymile Bank (110 km southwest of San Diego, California). Gaps devoid of vertically migrating zooplankton were formed every evening above the summit of the bank. Interactions between the migrating animals, their predators, physical advection and the local topography appear to determine the gap formation and dynamics. Gaps were transported downstream during the night and appeared to disintegrate slowly through vertical swimming behavior, current shear and mixing processes. Patch dynamics following gap formation, mediated by both ocean currents and animal behavior, should augment the spatial heterogeneity of zooplankton and affect marine food webs in areas where abrupt topography features are common.

Acoustical study of the spatial distribution of plankton on Georges Bank and the relationship between volume backscattering strength and the taxonomic composition of the plankton

Abstract High frequency (420 kHz) sound was used to study the volume backscattering from plankton and micronekton over Georges Bank as part of a study designed to determine the correlation length scales of plankton spatial patterns in relation to physical structure and to intercompare different kinds of sampling and remote-sensing instrumentation. Two physically distinct areas were studied: a well-mixed area in a shallow portion of the Bank and a stratified area on the deeper southern flank of the Bank. A submersible echo sounder with a down-looking transducer was mounted in a towed V-fin. Volume backscattering data were collected from near the sea surface to the bottom (40–80 m). Vertical and horizontal volume backscattering structure in the stratified region differed from that in the well-mixed area in both mean and variance, providing evidence that physical forcing of the pattern varied significantly between the two areas. Internal waves appeared to modulate the depth of dense mid-depth volume scattering layers in the stratified sites. In the mixed area, there was little horizontal layering or coarse-scale horizontal structure. However, fine-scale vertical lineations were evident with horizontal length scales on the order of the depth of the water column. One hypothesis to explain these vertical lineations in the well-mixed areas involves the development of secondary vertical circulation cells associated with the tidal flows over a rough bottom. Although volume backscattering at the stratified sites was 4–7 times higher than at the mixed site, there was no significant difference in MOCNESS (Multiple Opening/Closing Net and Environmental Sensing System) collected biovolumes between these locations. The difference in volume backscattering was due to differences in both the acoustic scattering properties of zooplankton taxa and the taxonomic composition of the plankton between the sites. Correlations between taxon abundance and volume scattering were positive and significant only for pteropods and euphausiid larvae. The abundances of copepods, chaetognaths, fish larvae, and amphipods were not significantly correlated with volume scattering. When taxon-specific model predictions of acoustic backscattering cross-section, developed by Stanton et al . ( ICES Journal of Marine Science , 51 (1994) 505–512), were used with field collected individual size and abundance data to predict measured volume backscattering data, good agreement was found between observed and predicted volume backscattering strengths.

High-frequency acoustic volume backscattering in the Georges Bank coastal region and its interpretation using scattering models

High-frequency (120 and 420 kHz) sound was used to survey sound scatterers in the water over Georges Bank. In addition to the biological sound scatterers (the plankton and micronekton), scattering associated with internal waves and suspended sediment was observed. Volume backscattering was more homogeneous in the vertical dimension (with occasional patches) in the shallow central portion of the Bank where there is significant mixing. In the deeper outer portion of the Bank where the water is stratified, volume backscattering was layered and internal waves modulated the vertical position of the layers in the pycnocline. The internal waves typically had amplitudes of 5-20 m, but sometimes much higher. Species composition and size data from samples of the animals and suspended sediment used in conjunction with acoustic scattering models revealed that throughout the region the animals generally dominate the scattering, but there are times and places where sand particles (suspended as high as up to the sea surface) can dominate. The source of the scattering in the internal waves is probably due to a combination of both animals and sound-speed microstructure. Determination of their relative contributions requires further study.

Foraging tactics and prey-selection patterns of omnivorous and carnivorous calanoid copepods

The foraging tactics and prey-selection patterns of omnivorous and carnivorous calanoid copepods are reviewed. Calanoid foraging tactics are envisioned as falling along several closely coupled continua reflecting swimming behavior, feeding behavior, and dietary habit. The consequences of these foraging tactics on prey-selection patterns are explored in the context of a graphical model. It is hypothesized that the prey-selection patterns of calanoid copepods are determined, to a large extent, by calanoid foraging tactics and the size relationships of predator and prey.

Synchronous marine pelagic regime shifts in the Northern Hemisphere

Regime shifts are characterized by sudden, substantial and temporally persistent changes in the state of an ecosystem. They involve major biological modifications and often have important implications for exploited living resources. In this study, we examine whether regime shifts observed in 11 marine systems from two oceans and three regional seas in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) are synchronous, applying the same methodology to all. We primarily infer marine pelagic regime shifts from abrupt shifts in zooplankton assemblages, with the exception of the East Pacific where ecosystem changes are inferred from fish. Our analyses provide evidence for quasi-synchronicity of marine pelagic regime shifts both within and between ocean basins, although these shifts lie embedded within considerable regional variability at both year-to-year and lower-frequency time scales. In particular, a regime shift was detected in the late 1980s in many studied marine regions, although the exact year of the observed shift varied somewhat from one basin to another. Another regime shift was also identified in the mid- to late 1970s but concerned less marine regions. We subsequently analyse the main biological signals in relation to changes in NH temperature and pressure anomalies. The results suggest that the main factor synchronizing regime shifts on large scales is NH temperature; however, changes in atmospheric circulation also appear important. We propose that this quasi-synchronous shift could represent the variably lagged biological response in each ecosystem to a large-scale, NH change of the climatic system, involving both an increase in NH temperature and a strongly positive phase of the Arctic Oscillation. Further investigation is needed to determine the relative roles of changes in temperature and atmospheric pressure patterns and their resultant teleconnections in synchronizing regime shifts at large scales.

Algal food and fuel coproduction can mitigate greenhouse gas emissions while improving land and water-use efficiency

The goals of ensuring energy, water, food, and climate security can often conflict. Microalgae (algae) are being pursued as a feedstock for both food and fuels—primarily due to algaes high areal yield and ability to grow on non-arable land, thus avoiding common bioenergy-food tradeoffs. However, algal cultivation requires significant energy inputs that may limit potential emission reductions. We examine the tradeoffs associated with producing fuel and food from algae at the energy–food–water–climate nexus. We use the GCAM integrated assessment model to demonstrate that algal food production can promote reductions in land-use change emissions through the offset of conventional agriculture. However, fuel production, either via co-production of algal food and fuel or complete biomass conversion to fuel, is necessary to ensure long-term emission reductions, due to the high energy costs of cultivation. Cultivation of salt–water algae for food products may lead to substantial freshwater savings; but, nutrients for algae cultivation will need to be sourced from waste streams to ensure sustainability. By reducing the land demand of food production, while simultaneously enhancing food and energy security, algae can further enable the development of terrestrial bioenergy technologies including those utilizing carbon capture and storage. Our results demonstrate that large-scale algae research and commercialization efforts should focus on developing both food and energy products to achieve environmental goals.