Daiwen Kang

Description and evaluation of the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) modeling system version 5.1

The Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model is a comprehensive multipollutant air quality modeling system developed and maintained by the US Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA) Office of Research and Development (ORD). Recently, version 5.1 of the CMAQ model (v5.1) was released to the public, incorporating a large number of science updates and extended capabilities over the previous release version of the model (v5.0.2). These updates include the following: improvements in the meteorological calculations in both CMAQ and the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model used to provide meteorological fields to CMAQ, updates to the gas and aerosol chemistry, revisions to the calculations of clouds and photolysis, and improvements to the dry and wet deposition in the model. Sensitivity simulations isolating several of the major updates to the modeling system show that changes to the meteorological calculations result in enhanced afternoon and early evening mixing in the model, periods when the model historically underestimates mixing. This enhanced mixing results in higher ozone (O3) mixing ratios on average due to reduced NO titration, and lower fine particulate matter (PM2.5) concentrations due to greater dilution of primary pollutants (e.g., elemental and organic carbon). Updates to the clouds and photolysis calculations greatly improve consistency between the WRF and CMAQ models and result in generally higher O3 mixing ratios, primarily due to reduced cloudiness and attenuation of photolysis in the model. Updates to the aerosol chemistry result in higher secondary organic aerosol (SOA) concentrations in the summer, thereby reducing summertime PM2.5 bias (PM2.5 is typically underestimated by CMAQ in the summer), while updates to the gas chemistry result in slightly higher O3 and PM2.5 on average in January and July. Overall, the seasonal variation in simulated PM2.5 generally improves in CMAQv5.1 (when considering all model updates), as simulated PM2.5 concentrations decrease in the winter (when PM2.5 is generally overestimated by CMAQ) and increase in the summer (when PM2.5 is generally underestimated by CMAQ). Ozone mixing ratios are higher on average with v5.1 vs. v5.0.2, resulting in higher O3 mean bias, as O3 tends to be overestimated by CMAQ throughout most of the year (especially at locations where the observed O3 is low); however, O3 correlation is largely improved with v5.1. Sensitivity simulations for several hypothetical emission reduction scenarios show that v5.1 tends to be slightly more responsive to reductions in NOx (NO + NO2), VOC and SOx (SO2 + SO4) emissions than v5.0.2, representing an improvement as previous studies have shown CMAQ to underestimate the observed reduction in O3 due to large, widespread reductions in observed emissions.

Performance and Diagnostic Evaluation of Ozone Predictions by the Eta-Community Multiscale Air Quality Forecast System during the 2002 New England Air Quality Study

Abstract A real-time air quality forecasting system (Eta-Community Multiscale Air Quality [CMAQ] model suite) has been developed by linking the National Centers for Environmental Estimation Eta model to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) CMAQ model. This work presents results from the application of the Eta-CMAQ modeling system for forecasting ozone (O3) over the Northeastern United States during the 2002 New England Air Quality Study (NEAQS). Spatial and temporal performance of the Eta-CMAQ model for O3 was evaluated by comparison with observations from the EPA Air Quality System (AQS) network. This study also examines the ability of the model to simulate the processes governing the distributions of tropospheric O3 on the basis of the intensive datasets obtained at the four Atmospheric Investigation, Regional Modeling, Analysis, and Estimation (AIRMAP) and Harvard Forest (HF) surface sites. The episode analysis reveals that the model captured the buildup of O3 concentrations over the northeastern domain from August 11 and reproduced the spatial distributions of observed O3 very well for the daytime (8:00 p.m.) of both August 8 and 12 with most of normalized mean bias (NMB) within [H11006]20%. The model reproduced 53.3% of the observed hourly O3 within a factor of 1.5 with NMB of 29.7% and normalized mean error of 46.9% at the 342 AQS sites.The comparison of modeled and observed lidar O3 vertical profiles shows that whereas the model reproduced the observed vertical structure, it tended to overestimate at higher altitude. The model reproduced 64 –77% of observed NO2 photolysis rate values within a factor of 1.5 at the AIRMAP sites. At the HF site, comparison of modeled and observed O3/nitrogen oxide (NOx) ratios suggests that the site is mainly under strongly NOx-sensitive conditions (>53%). It was found that the modeled lower limits of the O3 production efficiency values (inferred from O3-CO correlation) are close to the observations.

Nonmethane hydrocarbons in the rural southeast United States national parks

Measurements of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) were made at three rural sites in the southeast U.S. national parks: Mammoth Cave National Park, Kentucky; Cove Mountain, Great Smoky Mountains National Park, Tennessee; and Big Meadows, Shenandoah National Park, Virginia. In 1995 the three locations were sampling sites for the Southern Oxidants Study (SOS) Nashville Intensive, and the measurements of VOCs for Shenandoah were also made under contract with the National Park Service. Starting in 1996, the National Park Service added the other two parks to the monitoring contract. Hydrocarbon measurements made during June through September for the years 1995, 1996, and 1997 were analyzed in this study. Source classification techniques based on correlation coefficient, chemical reactivity, and ratioing were developed and applied to these data. The results show that anthropogenic VOCs from automobile exhaust appeared to be dominant at Mammoth Cave National Park, and at Cove Mountain, Great Smoky Mountains National Park, but other sources were also important at Big Meadows, Shenandoah National Park. Correlation and ratio analysis based on chemical reactivity provides a basis for source-receptor relationship. The most abundant ambient VOCs varied both in concentration and order depending on park and year, but the following VOCs appeared on the top 10 list for all three sites: isoprene (6.3 to 18.4 ppbv), propane (2.1 to 12.9 ppbv), isopentane (1.3 to 5.7 ppbv), and toluene (1.0 to 7.2 ppbv). Isoprene is naturally emitted by vegetation, and the others are produced mainly by fossil fuel combustion and industrial processes. Propylene-equivalent concentrations were calculated to account for differences in reaction rates between the hydroxyl radical and individual hydrocarbons, and to thereby estimate their relative contributions to ozone formation.

Using National Air Quality Forecast Guidance to Develop Local Air Quality Index Forecasts

The National Air Quality Forecast Capability (NAQFC) currently provides next-day forecasts of ozone concentrations over the contiguous United States. It was developed collaboratively by NOAA and Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) in order to provide state and local agencies, as well as the general public, air quality forecast guidance. As part of the development process, the NAQFC has been evaluated utilizing strict monitor-to-gridcell matching criteria, and discrete-type statistics of forecast concentrations. While such an evaluation is important to the developers, it is equally, if not more important, to evaluate the performance using the same protocol as the models intended application. Accordingly, the purpose of this article is to demonstrate the efficacy of the NAQFC from the perspective of a local forecaster, thereby promoting its use. Such an approach has required the development of a new evaluation protocol: one that examines the ability of the NAQFC to forecast values of the EPAs Air Qualit...

Measurements of hydrocarbon air–surface exchange rates over maize

Vertical gradients of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) were measured over a maize (Zea mays) field, in its early growth period, during May 1995, in the Lower Coastal Plains of North Carolina. These measurements were combined with micrometeorological flux measurements to determine emission flux measurements for various VOCs. This measurement program was part of project NOVA (Natural emissions of Oxidant precursors: Validation of techniques and Assessment) to estimate the flux of VOCs. Average emissions of VOCs (and standard error) was estimated to be 49007700mg/m 2 /h out of which emission for methanol averaged (34507420)mg/m 2 /h. A methanol emission rate of 35mg/g/h was calculated for maize from the estimated emission of methanol and biomass density for the site. r 2003 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Impact of Domain Size on Modeled Ozone Forecast for the Northeastern United States

Abstract This study investigates the impact of model domain extent and the specification of lateral boundary conditions on the forecast quality of air pollution constituents in a specific region of interest. A developmental version of the national Air Quality Forecast System (AQFS) has been used in this study. The AQFS is based on the NWS/NCEP Eta Model (recently renamed the North American Mesoscale Model) coupled with the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model. This coupled Eta–CMAQ modeling system provided experimental air quality forecasts for the northeastern region of the United States during the summers of 2003 and 2004. The initial forecast over the northeastern United States was approved for operational deployment in September 2004. The AQFS will provide forecast coverage for the entire United States in the near future. In a continuing program of phased development to extend the geographical coverage of the forecast, the developmental version of AQFS has...

New Categorical Metrics for Air Quality Model Evaluation

Abstract Traditional categorical metrics used in model evaluations are “clear cut” measures in that the model’s ability to predict an “exceedance” is defined by a fixed threshold concentration and the metrics are defined by observation–forecast sets that are paired both in space and time. These metrics are informative but limited in evaluating the performance of air quality forecast (AQF) systems because AQF generally examines exceedances on a regional scale rather than a single monitor. New categorical metrics—the weighted success index (WSI), area hit (aH), and area false-alarm ratio (aFAR)—are developed. In the calculation of WSI, credits are given to the observation–forecast pairs within the observed exceedance region (missed forecast) or the forecast exceedance region (false alarm), depending on the distance of the points from the central line (perfect observation–forecast match line or 1:1 line on scatterplot). The aH and aFAR are defined by matching observed and forecast exceedances within an area ...

Modelling and analysis of the atmospheric nitrogen deposition in North Carolina

The United States Environmental Protection Agencys Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) regional-scale model is used to study concentrations and dry deposition of nitrogen species in North Carolina (NC) during the summer season. Each modelled and measured species featured a similar diurnal trend. A process budget analysis (production and removal evaluation) of NO, NO2, and NOY depicted the models capability to evaluate various process contributions. Dry deposition of NH3 contributed 34.2 ± 57.9 µg N m-2 hr-1; whereas HNO3 contributed slightly larger dry deposition of nitrogen, 35.2 ± 16.0 µg N m-2 hr-1, in NC. NH4+ and NO3- hourly-averaged wet deposition fluxes were calculated as 37.3 ± 19.7 µg N -2 hr-1 and 40.6 ± 11.8 µg N m-2 hr-1, respectively. Examination of total nitrogen deposition during the summer season in NC found that NH3 contributes approximately 50% of the dry deposition and NO3- contributes approximately 50% of the wet deposition.

Representing the Effects of Long-Range Transport and Lateral Boundary Conditions in Regional Air Pollution Models

The Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) modeling system was applied to a domain covering the northern hemisphere; meteorological information was derived from the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model run on identical grid and projection configuration, while the emission inputs were derived from global inventories. The ability of the model to represent long-range transport of pollutants is analyzed through comparisons with aircraft measurements from the 2006 INTEX-B field campaign, ozonesonde profiles, and remotely sensed observations of aerosol optical depth. Time varying lateral boundary conditions from these hemispheric scale calculations were used to drive regional-scale air quality simulations over a finer resolution domain covering the continental United States. Comparison of model predictions with surface O3 and PM2.5 measurements indicate comparable or better performance relative to other approaches (e.g., other global models, static profiles). The successful expansion of CMAQ to the hemispheric scales now provides a conceptual framework to examine interactions between atmospheric processes occurring at various spatial and temporal scales in a consistent manner.

A simple lightning assimilation technique for improving retrospective WRF simulations

Convective rainfall is often a large source of error in retrospective modeling applications. In particular, positive rainfall biases commonly exist during summer months due to overactive convective parameterizations. In this study, lightning assimilation was applied in the Kain-Fritsch (KF) convective scheme to improve retrospective simulations using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The assimilation method has a straightforward approach: force KF deep convection where lightning is observed and, optionally, suppress deep convection where lightning is absent. WRF simulations were made with and without lightning assimilation over the continental United States for July 2012, July 2013, and January 2013. The simulations were evaluated against NCEP stage-IV precipitation data and MADIS near-surface meteorological observations. In general, the use of lightning assimilation considerably improves the simulation of summertime rainfall. For example, the July 2012 monthly averaged bias of 6 h accumulated rainfall is reduced from 0.54 to 0.07 mm and the spatial correlation is increased from 0.21 to 0.43 when lightning assimilation is used. Statistical measures of near-surface meteorological variables also are improved. Consistent improvements also are seen for the July 2013 case. These results suggest that this lightning assimilation technique has the potential to substantially improve simulation of warm-season rainfall in retrospective WRF applications.