Dale L. Morse

The information content of security prices

Abstract The study derives a relationship between prices changes and earnings changes by expanding the information upon which earnings expectations are conditioned to include data other than prior earnings history. In particular, price is used as a surrogate for additional information available to market participants. This relationship provides an interpretation of the contemporaneous association between price changes and earnings changes previously observed by Ball and Brown (1968) and Beaver, Clarke and Wright (1979), among others. It also provides a basis for inferring from prices the earnings process and the expected future earnings as perceived by market participants. In doing so, it inverts the familiar price-earnings relationship and uses price as a predictor of earnings. The study differs from previous research which has examined the time series behavior of earnings based solely on previous earnings realizations. This approach can potentially lead to earnings forecasting models that are more accurate than the random walk with a drift that has been robust against challengers. In particular, the evidence indicates that security prices behave as if earnings are perceived to be dramatically different from a simple random walk process. Preliminary evidence also indicates that price-based forecasting models are more accurate than the random walk with a drift model.

Widespread outbreaks of clam- and oyster-associated gastroenteritis. Role of Norwalk virus.

Consumption of raw shellfish has long been known to be associated with individual cases and sporadic outbreaks of enteric illness. However, during 1982, outbreaks of gastroenteritis associated with eating raw shellfish reached epidemic proportions in New York State. Between May 1 and December 31, there were 103 well-documented outbreaks in which 1017 persons became ill: 813 cases were related to eating clams, and 204 to eating oysters. The most common symptoms were diarrhea, nausea, abdominal cramps, and vomiting. Incubation periods were generally 24 to 48 hours long, and the duration of illness was 24 to 48 hours. Bacteriologic analyses of stool and shellfish specimens did not reveal a causative agent. Norwalk virus was implicated as the predominant etiologic agent by clinical features of the illness and by seroconversion and the formation of IgM antibody to Norwalk virus in paired serum samples from persons in five (71 percent) of seven outbreaks in which testing was done. In addition, Norwalk virus was identified by radioimmunoassay in clam and oyster specimens from two of the outbreaks. Determining the source of the shellfish was not always possible, but northeastern coastal waters were implicated. The magnitude, persistence, and widespread nature of these outbreaks raise further questions about the safety of consuming raw shellfish.

Detection, Isolation, and Molecular Subtyping of Escherichia coli O157:H7 and Campylobacter jejuni Associated with a Large Waterborne Outbreak

ABSTRACT The largest reported outbreak of waterborne Escherichia coli O157:H7 in the United States occurred in upstate New York following a county fair in August 1999. Culture methods were used to isolate E. coli O157:H7 from specimens from 128 of 775 patients with suspected infections. Campylobacter jejuni was also isolated from stools of 44 persons who developed diarrheal illness after attending this fair. There was one case of a confirmed coinfection with E. coli O157:H7 and C. jejuni. Molecular detection of stx1 and stx2 Shiga toxin genes, immunomagnetic separation (IMS), and selective culture enrichment were utilized to detect and isolate E. coli O157:H7 from an unchlorinated well and its distribution points, a dry well, and a nearby septic tank. PCR for stx1 and stx2 was shown to provide a useful screen for toxin-producing E. coli O157:H7, and IMS subculture improved recovery. Pulsed-field gel electrophoresis (PFGE) was used to compare patient and environmental E. coli O157:H7 isolates. Among patient isolates, 117 of 128 (91.5%) were type 1 or 1a (three or fewer bands different). Among the water distribution system isolates, 13 of 19 (68%) were type 1 or 1a. Additionally, PFGE of C. jejuni isolates revealed that 29 of 35 (83%) had indistinguishable PFGE patterns. The PFGE results implicated the water distribution system as the main source of the E. coli O157:H7 outbreak. This investigation demonstrates the potential for outbreaks involving more than one pathogen and the importance of analyzing isolates from multiple patients and environmental samples to develop a better understanding of bacterial transmission during an outbreak.

An Outbreak of Influenza A (H3N2) in a Well Immunized Nursing Home Population

To describe the epidemiologic features of an outbreak of influenza A that occurred in a skilled nursing home although over 90 percent of the resident population had previously received influenza vaccine.

Knowledge and Attitudes of Healthcare Workers About Influenza: Why Are They Not Getting Vaccinated?

In a survey of employees at a chronic care psychiatric facility following an influenza outbreak, previous influenza vaccination (relative risk [RR], 69.7; 95% confidence interval [CI95], 25.2 to 192.4), age > or = 50 years (RR, 2.4; CI95, 1.3 to 4.5), and knowledge that vaccine does not cause influenza (RR, 2.3; CI95, 1.3 to 3.7) were the factors most predictive of current influenza vaccination. Medical personnel were less likely than nonmedical employees to be vaccinated (RR, 0.5; CI95, 0.3 to 0.9). Educational efforts to address misconceptions about vaccination plus more vigorous administrative measures to vaccinate employees should be considered.

Burden of Self-Reported Acute Diarrheal Illness in FoodNet Surveillance Areas, 1998–1999

To assess trends in the burden of acute diarrheal illness, the Foodborne Diseases Active Surveillance Network (FoodNet) conducted a population-based telephone survey during 1998-1999, using a random-digit-dialing, single-stage Genesys-ID sampling method. During the 12-month study period, 12,755 persons were interviewed; after the exclusion of persons with chronic diarrheal illnesses, 12,075 persons were included in the analysis; 6% (n=645) reported having experienced an acute diarrheal illness at some point during the 4 weeks preceding the interview (annualized rate, 0.72 episodes per person-year). Rates of diarrheal illness were highest among children aged <5 years (1.1 episodes per person-year) and were lowest in persons aged > or =65 years (0.32 episodes per person-year). Twenty-one percent of persons with acute diarrheal illness sought medical care as a result of their illness. Diarrheal illness imposes a considerable burden on the US population and health care system.

The Etiology of Severe Acute Gastroenteritis Among Adults Visiting Emergency Departments in the United States

BACKGROUND Acute gastroenteritis (AGE) remains a common cause of clinic visits and hospitalizations in the United States, but the etiology is rarely determined. METHODS We performed a prospective, multicenter emergency department-based study of adults with AGE. Subjects were interviewed on presentation and 3-4 weeks later. Serum samples, rectal swab specimens, and/or whole stool specimens were collected at presentation, and serum was collected 3-4 weeks later. Fecal specimens were tested for a comprehensive panel of viral, bacterial, and parasitic pathogens; serum was tested for calicivirus antibodies. RESULTS Pathogens were detected in 25% of 364 subjects, including 49% who provided a whole stool specimen. The most commonly detected pathogens were norovirus (26%), rotavirus (18%), and Salmonella species (5.3%). Pathogens were detected significantly more often from whole stool samples versus a rectal swab specimen alone. Nine percent of subjects who provided whole stool samples had >1 pathogen identified. CONCLUSIONS Viruses, especially noroviruses, play a major role as agents of severe diarrhea in adults. Further studies to confirm the unexpectedly high prevalence of rotaviruses and to explore the causes of illness among patients from whom a pathogen cannot be determined are needed. Studies of enteric pathogens should require the collection of whole stool samples.

Nosocomial tuberculosis: an outbreak of a strain resistant to seven drugs.

OBJECTIVE To evaluate nosocomial transmission of multidrug-resistant (MDR) tuberculosis (TB). DESIGN Outbreak investigation: review of infection control practices and skin test results of healthcare workers (HCWs); medical records of hospitalized TB patients and mycobacteriology reports; submission of specimens for restriction fragment length polymorphism (RFLP) typing; and an assessment of the air-handling system. SETTING A teaching hospital in upstate New York. RESULTS Skin-test conversions occurred among 46 (6.6%) of 696 HCWs tested from August through October 1991. Rates were highest on two units (29% and 20%); HCWs primarily assigned to these units had a higher risk for conversion compared with HCWs tested following previous incidents of exposure to TB (relative risk [RR] = 53.4, 95% confidence interval [CI95] = 6.9 to 411.1; and RR = 37.4, CI95 = 5.0 to 277.3, respectively). The likely source patient was the only TB patient hospitalized on both units during the probable exposure period. This patient appeared clinically infectious, was associated with a higher risk of conversion among HCWs providing direct care (RR = 2.37; CI95 = 1.05 to 5.34), and was a prison inmate with TB resistant to seven antituberculosis agents. The MDR-TB strain isolated from this patient also was isolated from other inmate and noninmate patients, and a prison correctional officer exposed in the hospital. Mycobacterium tuberculosis isolates from all of these patients had matching RFLP patterns. Infection control practices closely followed established guidelines; however, several rooms housing TB patients had marginal negative pressure with variable numbers of air changes per hour, and directional airflow was disrupted easily. CONCLUSIONS These data strongly suggest nosocomial transmission of MDR-TB to HCWs, patients, and a prison correctional officer working in the hospital. Factors contributing to transmission apparently included prolonged infectiousness of the likely source patient and inadequate environmental controls. Continued urgent attention to TB infection control is needed.

Public health impact of reemergence of rabies, New York.

This report summarizes the spread of a raccoon rabies epizootic into New York in the 1990s, the species of animals affected, and human postexposure treatments (PET). A total of 57,008 specimens were submitted to the state laboratory from 1993 to 1998; 8,858 (16%) animals were confirmed rabid, with raccoons the most common species (75%). After exposure to 11,769 animals, 18,238 (45%) persons received PET, mostly because of contact with saliva or nervous tissue. We analyzed expenditure reports to estimate the cost of rabies prevention activities. An estimated

Hemolytic Uremic Syndrome Risk and Escherichia coli O157:H7

13.9 million was spent in New York State to prevent rabies from 1993 to 1998. Traditional prevention methods such as vaccinating pets, avoiding wildlife, and verifying an animal’s rabies status must be continued to reduce costly PET. To reduce rabid animals, exposures, and costs, oral vaccination of wildlife should also be considered.