Damien Desbruyères

Origin, formation and variability of the Subpolar Mode Water located over the Reykjanes Ridge

The origin and formation of the Subpolar Mode Water (SPMW) located over the Reykjanes Ridge in the North-Atlantic Ocean and the variability of its properties over the period 1966-2004 are investigated through the use of a global eddy-permitting (1/4 degrees) ocean/sea-ice model and a Lagrangian analysis tool. The SPMW is fed by subtropical and subpolar waters advected by the branches of the North-Atlantic Current. The SPMW acquires its properties when its source waters enter the winter mixed layer in the Iceland Basin. The SPMW temperature variability is mainly explained by variations of the relative contributions of the subtropical and subpolar water transports to the total transport. Compared to the 1966-2004 mean, lower (higher) subtropical water relative transport contribution leads to colder (warmer) SPMW in the early 1990s (in the late 1960s and late 1990s). The intensity of the winter convection in the Iceland basin also influences the SPMW temperature through the amount of relatively cold intermediate waters of subtropical origin integrated in the SPMW layer. Strong convection partly explains the cold SPMW of the early 1990s. The large increase in the SPMW temperature in the late 1990s is due to both a decrease in the winter convection and an increase in the relative transport of the subtropical waters.

Full-depth temperature trends in the Northeastern Atlantic through the early 21st century

The vertical structure of temperature trends in the northeastern Atlantic (NEA) is investigated using a blend of Argo and hydrography data. The representativeness of sparse hydrography sampling in the basin mean is assessed using a numerical model. Between 2003 and 2013, the NEA underwent a strong surface cooling (0–450 m) and a significant warming at intermediate and deep levels (1000 m to 3000 m) that followed a strong cooling trend observed between 1988 and 2003. During 2003–2013, gyre-specific changes are found in the upper 1000 m (warming and cooling of the subtropical and subpolar gyres, respectively), while the intermediate and deep warming primarily occurred in the subpolar gyre, with important contributions from isopycnal heave and water mass property changes. The full-depth temperature change requires a local downward heat flux of 0.53 ± 0.06 W m−2 through the sea surface, and its vertical distribution highlights the likely important role of the NEA in the recent global warming hiatus.

Deep and abyssal ocean warming from 35 years of repeat hydrography

Global and regional ocean warming deeper than 2000 m is investigated using 35 years of sustained repeat hydrographic survey data starting in 1981. The global long-term temperature trend below 2000 m, representing the time period 1991–2010, is equivalent to a mean heat flux of 0.065 ± 0.040 W m?2 applied over the Earths surface area. The strongest warming rates are found in the abyssal layer (4000–6000 m), which contributes to one third of the total heat uptake with the largest contribution from the Southern and Pacific Oceans. A similar regional pattern is found in the deep layer (2000–4000 m), which explains the remaining two thirds of the total heat uptake yet with larger uncertainties. The global average warming rate did not change within uncertainties pre-2000 versus post-2000, whereas ocean average warming rates decreased in the Pacific and Indian Oceans and increased in the Atlantic and Southern Oceans.

Surface flux and ocean heat transport convergence contributions to seasonal and interannual variations of ocean heat content

We present an observation-based heat budget analysis for seasonal and interannual variations of ocean heat content (H) in the mixed layer (Hmld) and full-depth ocean (Htot). Surface heat flux and ocean heat content estimates are combined using a novel Kalman smoother-based method. Regional contributions from ocean heat transport convergences are inferred as a residual and the dominant drivers of Hmld and Htot are quantified for seasonal and interannual time scales. We find that non-Ekman ocean heat transport processes dominate Hmld variations in the equatorial oceans and regions of strong ocean currents and substantial eddy activity. In these locations, surface temperature anomalies generated by ocean dynamics result in turbulent flux anomalies that drive the overlying atmosphere. In addition, we find large regions of the Atlantic and Pacific oceans where heat transports combine with local air-sea fluxes to generate mixed layer temperature anomalies. In all locations, except regions of deep convection and water mass transformation, interannual variations in Htot are dominated by the internal rearrangement of heat by ocean dynamics rather than the loss or addition of heat at the surface. Our analysis suggests that, even in extratropical latitudes, initialization of ocean dynamical processes could be an important source of skill for interannual predictability of Hmld and Htot. Furthermore, we expect variations in Htot (and thus thermosteric sea level) to be more predictable than near surface temperature anomalies due to the increased importance of ocean heat transport processes for full-depth heat budgets.

Simulated decadal variability of the meridional overturning circulation across the A25-Ovide section

andhighlatitudes(12Sv,1Sv=10 6 m 3 s –1 ) and a cellinternal to the subpolar gyre(4Sv). The decadal MOC variability is associated with synchronized transport changes of the subtropical and subpolar inflow within the North Atlantic Current (NAC). The varying strength of the MOC is further related to changes in the upper horizontal transport distribution. When the MOC is in a strong phase (early 1990s), the northern branch of the NAC in the Iceland Basin is strong while the southern branch at the Rockall Trough entrance is relatively weak. The inverse situation holds for a persistent weak MOC state (1970s). Contrary to the conclusions of earlier studies, variability in the strength and shape of the subpolar gyre does not stand as the main driver of the changing NAC structure, which is largely induced by the horizontal variability of the subtropical inflow. Additionally, the recently shown intrusion of subtropical waters into the northeastern Atlantic (late 1960s, early 1980s, and 2000s) are shown to primarily occur during periods of weak MOC circulation at A25-Ovide.

Global and full-depth ocean temperature trends during the early 21st century from Argo and repeat hydrography

The early 21st century’s warming trend of the full-depth global ocean is calculated by combining the analysis of Argo (top 2000m) and repeat hydrography into a blended full-depth observing system. The surface-to-bottom temperature change over the last decade of sustained observation is equivalent to a heat uptake of 0.72 ± 0.09 W m?2 applied over the surface of the earth, 90% of it being found above 2000m depth. We decompose the temperature trend point-wise into changes in isopycnal depth (heave) and temperature changes along an isopycnal (spiciness) to describe the mechanisms controlling the variability. The heave component dominates the global heat content increase, with the largest trends found in the southern hemisphere’s extratropics (0 - 2000m) highlighting a volumetric increase of subtropical mode waters. Significant heave-related warming is also found in the deep North Atlantic and Southern Ocean (2000m - 4000m), reflecting a potential decrease in deep water mass renewal rates. The spiciness component shows its strongest contribution at intermediate levels (700m - 2000m), with striking localised warming signals in regions of intense vertical mixing (North Atlantic and Southern oceans). Finally, the agreement between the independent Argo and repeat hydrography temperature changes at 2000m provides an overall good confidence in the blended heat content evaluation on global and ocean scales, but also highlights basin scale discrepancies between the two independent estimates. Those mismatches are largest in those basins with the largest heave signature (Southern Ocean) and reflect both the temporal and spatial sparseness of the hydrography sampling.

Observational advances in estimates of oceanic heating

Since the early twenty-first century, improvements in understanding climate variability resulted from the growth of the ocean observing system. The potential for a closure of the Earth’s energy budget has emerged with the unprecedented coverage of Argo profiling floats, which now provide a decade (2006–2015) of invaluable information on ocean heat content changes above 2000 m. The expertise gained from Argo and repeat hydrography sections motivated the extension of the array toward the ocean bottom, which will progressively reveal the poorly known deep ocean and reduce the uncertainty of its presumed 10–15 % contribution to the global ocean warming trend of 0.65–0.80 W m−2. The sustainability and synergy of various observing systems helped to corroborate numerical models and decipher the internal variability of distinct ocean basins. Due to unique observations of the circulation in the North Atlantic, particular attention is paid to heat content changes and their relationship to dynamic variability in that region.

Deep temperature variability in Drake Passage

Observations made on 21 occupations between 1993 and 2016 of GO-SHIP line SR1b in eastern Drake Passage show an average temperature of 0.53°C deeper than 2000 dbar, with no significant trend, but substantial year-to-year variability (standard deviation 0.08°C). Using a neutral density framework to decompose the temperature variability into isopycnal displacement (heave) and isopycnal property change components shows that approximately 95% of the year-to-year variance in deep temperature is due to heave. Changes on isopycnals make a small contribution to year-to-year variability but contribute a significant trend of -1.4±0.6 m°C per year, largest for density (?n)?>?28.1, south of the Polar Front (PF). The heave component is depth-coherent and results from either vertical or horizontal motions of neutral density surfaces, which trend upward and northward around the PF, downward for the densest levels in the southern section, and downward and southward in the Subantarctic Front and Southern Antarctic Circumpolar Current Front (SACCF). A proxy for the locations of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) fronts is constructed from the repeat hydrographic data and has a strong relationship with deep ocean heat content, explaining 76% of deep temperature variance. The same frontal position proxy based on satellite altimeter-derived surface velocities explains 73% of deep temperature variance. The position of the PF plays the strongest role in this relationship between ACC fronts and deep temperature variability in Drake Passage, although much of the temperature variability in the southern half of the section can be explained by the position of the SACCF. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.