Patrick Hyder

An operational ocean forecast system incorporating NEMO and SST data assimilation for the tidally driven European North-West shelf

A new operational ocean forecast system, the Atlantic Margin Model implementation of the Forecast Ocean Assimilation Model (FOAM-AMM), has been developed for the European North West Shelf (NWS). An overview of the system is presented including shelf specific developments of the physical model, the Nucleus for European Modelling of the Ocean (NEMO), and the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) data assimilation scheme. Initial validation is presented of the tides and model SST. The SST skill of the system is significantly improved by the data assimilation scheme. Finally, an analysis of the seasonal tidal mixing fronts shows that these, in general, agree well with observation, but data assimilation does not significantly alter their positions.

Forecasting the ocean state using NEMO:The new FOAM system

The Forecasting Ocean Assimilation Model (FOAM) deep ocean analysis and forecasting system has been running operationally at the Met Office for over 10 years.The system has recently been transitioned to use the Nucleus for European Modelling of the Ocean (NEMO) community model as its core ocean component. This paper gives an end-to-end description of the FOAM-NEMO operational system and presents some preliminary assessment of operational and hindcast integrations including verification statistics against observations and forecast verification against model best guess fields.Validation of the sea surface height fields is presented, which suggests that the system captures and tracks the major mesoscale features of the ocean circulation reasonably well, with some evidence of improvement in higher-resolution configurations.

Earth's energy imbalance since 1960 in observations and CMIP5 models

Observational analyses of running 5 year ocean heat content trends (Ht) and net downward top of atmosphere radiation (N) are significantly correlated (r ∼ 0.6) from 1960 to 1999, but a spike in Ht in the early 2000s is likely spurious since it is inconsistent with estimates of N from both satellite observations and climate model simulations. Variations in N between 1960 and 2000 were dominated by volcanic eruptions and are well simulated by the ensemble mean of coupled models from the Fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). We find an observation-based reduction in N of − 0.31 ± 0.21 W m−2 between 1999 and 2005 that potentially contributed to the recent warming slowdown, but the relative roles of external forcing and internal variability remain unclear. While present-day anomalies of N in the CMIP5 ensemble mean and observations agree, this may be due to a cancelation of errors in outgoing longwave and absorbed solar radiation. Key Points Observed maximum in ocean heat content trend in early 2000s is likely spurious Net incoming radiation (N) reduced by 0.31 ± 0.21 W m−2 during the warming pause Present-day estimates of N may contain opposing errors in radiative components

Large contribution of supercooled liquid clouds to the solar radiation budget of the Southern Ocean

The Southern Ocean is a critical region for global climate, yet large cloud and solar radiation biases over the Southern Ocean are a long-standing problem in climate models and are poorly understood, leading to biases in simulated sea surface temperatures. This study shows that supercooled liquid clouds are central to understanding and simulating the Southern Ocean environment. A combination of satellite observational data and detailed radiative transfer calculations is used to quantify the impact of cloud phase and cloud vertical structure on the reflected solar radiation in the Southern Hemisphere summer. It is found that clouds with supercooled liquid tops dominate the population of liquid clouds. The observations show that clouds with supercooled liquid tops contribute between 27% and 38% to the total reflected solar radiation between 40° and 70°S, and climate models are found to poorly simulate these clouds. The results quantify the importance of supercooled liquid clouds in the Southern Ocean environment and highlight the need to improve understanding of the physical processes that control these clouds in order to improve their simulation in numerical models. This is not only important for improving the simulation of present-day climate and climate variability, but also relevant for increasing confidence in climate feedback processes and future climate projections.

Combining satellite observations and reanalysis energy transports to estimate global net surface energy fluxes 1985–2012

Two methods are developed to estimate net surface energy fluxes based upon satellite-based reconstructions of radiative fluxes at the top of atmosphere and the atmospheric energy tendencies and transports from the ERA-Interim reanalysis. Method 1 applies the mass adjusted energy divergence from ERA-Interim while method 2 estimates energy divergence based upon the net energy difference at the top of atmosphere and the surface from ERA-Interim. To optimise the surface flux and its variability over ocean, the divergences over land are constrained to match the monthly area mean surface net energy flux variability derived from a simple relationship between the surface net energy flux and the surface temperature change. The energy divergences over the oceans are then adjusted to remove an unphysical residual global mean atmospheric energy divergence. The estimated net surface energy fluxes are compared with other data sets from reanalysis and atmospheric model simulations. The spatial correlation coefficients of multi-annual means between the estimations made here and other data sets are all around 0.9. There are good agreements in area mean anomaly variability over the global ocean, but discrepancies in the trend over the eastern Pacific are apparent.

Surface flux and ocean heat transport convergence contributions to seasonal and interannual variations of ocean heat content

We present an observation-based heat budget analysis for seasonal and interannual variations of ocean heat content (H) in the mixed layer (Hmld) and full-depth ocean (Htot). Surface heat flux and ocean heat content estimates are combined using a novel Kalman smoother-based method. Regional contributions from ocean heat transport convergences are inferred as a residual and the dominant drivers of Hmld and Htot are quantified for seasonal and interannual time scales. We find that non-Ekman ocean heat transport processes dominate Hmld variations in the equatorial oceans and regions of strong ocean currents and substantial eddy activity. In these locations, surface temperature anomalies generated by ocean dynamics result in turbulent flux anomalies that drive the overlying atmosphere. In addition, we find large regions of the Atlantic and Pacific oceans where heat transports combine with local air-sea fluxes to generate mixed layer temperature anomalies. In all locations, except regions of deep convection and water mass transformation, interannual variations in Htot are dominated by the internal rearrangement of heat by ocean dynamics rather than the loss or addition of heat at the surface. Our analysis suggests that, even in extratropical latitudes, initialization of ocean dynamical processes could be an important source of skill for interannual predictability of Hmld and Htot. Furthermore, we expect variations in Htot (and thus thermosteric sea level) to be more predictable than near surface temperature anomalies due to the increased importance of ocean heat transport processes for full-depth heat budgets.

The Met Office Global Coupled Model 3.0 and 3.1 (GC3.0 and GC3.1) Configurations

The Global Coupled 3 (GC3) configuration of the Met Office Unified Model is presented. Amongst other applications, GC3 is the basis of the United Kingdoms submission to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6). This paper documents the model components that make up the configuration (although the scientific description of these components are in companion papers), and details the coupling between them. The performance of GC3 is assessed in terms of mean biases and variability in long climate simulations using present-day forcing. The suitability of the configuration for predictabiity on shorter timescales (weather and seasonal forecasting) is also briefly discussed. The performance of GC3 is compared against GC2, the previous Met Office coupled model configuration, and against an older configuration (HadGEM2-AO) which was the submission to CMIP5. In many respects, the performance of GC3 is comparable with GC2, however there is a notable improvement in the Southern Ocean warm sea surface temperature bias which has been reduced by 75%, and there are improvements in cloud amount and some aspects of tropical variability. Relative to HadGEM2-AO, many aspects of the present-day climate are improved in GC3 including tropospheric and stratospheric temperature structure, most aspects of tropical and extra-tropical variability and top-of-atmosphere & surface fluxes. A number of outstanding errors are identified including a residual asymmetric sea surface temperature bias (cool northern hemisphere, warm Southern Ocean), an overly strong global hydrological cycle and insufficient European blocking.

Evaluation of satellite and reanalysis‐based global net surface energy flux and uncertainty estimates

Abstract The net surface energy flux is central to the climate system yet observational limitations lead to substantial uncertainty. A combination of satellite‐derived radiative fluxes at the top of atmosphere adjusted using the latest estimation of the net heat uptake of the Earth system, and the atmospheric energy tendencies and transports from the ERA‐Interim reanalysis are used to estimate surface energy flux globally. To consider snowmelt and improve regional realism, land surface fluxes are adjusted through a simple energy balance approach at each grid point. This energy adjustment is redistributed over the oceans to ensure energy conservation and maintain realistic global ocean heat uptake, using a weighting function to avoid meridional discontinuities. Calculated surface energy fluxes are evaluated through comparison to ocean reanalyses. Derived turbulent energy flux variability is compared with the Objectively Analyzed air‐sea Fluxes (OAFLUX) product, and inferred meridional energy transports in the global ocean and the Atlantic are also evaluated using observations. Uncertainties in surface fluxes are investigated using a variety of approaches including comparison with a range of atmospheric reanalysis products. Decadal changes in the global mean and the interhemispheric energy imbalances are quantified, and present day cross‐equator heat transports are reevaluated at 0.22 ± 0.15 PW (petawatts) southward by the atmosphere and 0.32 ± 0.16 PW northward by the ocean considering the observed ocean heat sinks.

Evaluating a new NEMO-based Persian/Arabian Gulf tidal operational model

A 3-D baroclinic pre-operational model, including tides of the Persian/Arabian Gulf, has been developed at the Met Office using the NEMO framework. The non-assimilative model is believed to represent a significant improvement over the existing POLCOMS based system, benefiting from: extended domain; improved resolution; more accurate representation of coasts and bathymetry; improved representation of tides; and improved representation of salinity. As expected, with sea surface temperature (SST) data assimilation, the accuracy of SST is significantly improved. However, data assimilation also appears to help reduce thermal biases throughout the water column, within the limited accuracy of a climatology comparison. Operational implementation occurred in late 2012.

CMIP5 diversity in southern westerly jet projections related to historical sea ice area; strong link to strengthening and weak link to shift

AbstractA major feature of projected changes in Southern Hemisphere climate under future scenarios of increased greenhouse gas concentrations is the poleward shift and strengthening of the main eddy-driven belt of mid-latitude near-surface westerly winds (the westerly jet). However, there is large uncertainty in projected twenty-first century westerly jet changes across different climate models.Here the World Climate Research Programme’s Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) models were evaluated to assess linkages between diversity in simulated sea ice area (SIA), Antarctic amplification and diversity in projected 21st century changes in the westerly jet following the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 scenario (RCP8.5). To help disentangle cause and effect in the coupled model analysis, uncoupled atmosphere-only fixed sea-surface experiments from CMIP5 were also evaluated.It is shown that across all seasons approximately half of the variance in projected RCP8.5 jet strengthening is...