Dana Rotz

Why Have Divorce Rates Fallen? The Role of Women’s Age at Marriage

American divorce rates rose from the 1950s to the 1970s peaked around 1980, and have fallen ever since. The mean age at marriage also substantially increased after 1970. I explore the extent to which the rise in age at marriage can explain the decrease in divorce rates for cohorts marrying after 1980 using data from the Survey of Income and Program Participation, 1979 National Longitudinal Survey of Youth, and National Survey of Family Growth. Three different empirical approaches suggest that the increase in women’s age at marriage is the main proximate cause of the fall in divorce rates.

Data and Decision Making Same Organization, Different Perceptions; Different Organizations, Different Perceptions

This study examines the perceptions of data-driven decision making (DDDM) activities and culture in organizations driven by a social mission. Analysis of survey information from multiple stakeholders in each of eight social enterprises highlights the wide divergence in views of DDDM. Within an organization, managerial and nonmanagerial staff working for the organization and staff from a prominent funder all expressed different perceptions of the same organization’s DDDM activities and culture. Study findings also provide insights into how to improve an organization’s capacity to build and use performance management systems, which include building a common understanding about what activities are—or are not—being undertaken. Finally, findings provide insights about structuring research on DDDM, which indicate that information from only one respondent in an organization or only one organization might not be reliable or generalizable.

A randomized trial of motivational interviewing and facilitated contraceptive access to prevent rapid repeat pregnancy among adolescent mothers

BACKGROUND: Most interventions designed to reduce teen pregnancy rates have not focused on pregnant and/or parenting adolescents. Therefore, a large randomized controlled trial was conducted regarding a motivational interviewing program entitled Teen Options to Prevent Pregnancy in a low‐income sample of adolescent mothers. This program recommended monthly sessions between a participant and a registered nurse over 18 months. This program also featured facilitated birth control access through transportation assistance and a part‐time contraceptive clinic. OBJECTIVE: The impact of this program on rapid repeat pregnancies at 18 months after enrollment was evaluated. STUDY DESIGN: Five hundred ninety‐eight adolescent females were enrolled from 7 obstetrics‐gynecology clinics and 5 postpartum units of a large hospital system in a Midwestern city. Each participant was enrolled at least 28 weeks pregnant or less than 9 weeks postpartum. Each participant was randomized to either the Teen Options to Prevent Pregnancy intervention or a usual‐care control condition. Intervention participants averaged 4.5 hours of assistance. Participants were contacted by blinded research staff at 6 and 18 months to complete self‐report surveys. Differences in outcomes between the intervention and control groups were assessed using ordinary least‐squares regression. RESULTS: There was an 18.1% absolute reduction in self‐reported repeat pregnancy in the intervention group relative to the control group (20.5% vs 38.6%%; P < .001). There was a 13.7% absolute increase in self‐reported long‐acting reversible contraception use in the intervention group relative to the control group (40.2% vs 26.5%, P = .002). There was no evidence of harmful effects of the intervention on sexual risk behaviors, such as having sexual intercourse without a condom or greater number of partners. CONCLUSION: The Teen Options to Prevent Pregnancy program represents one of the few evidence‐based interventions to reduce rapid repeat teen pregnancy. This relatively brief intervention may be a viable alternative to more time‐intensive programs that adolescent mothers may be unable or unwilling to receive.

The Impact of Legal Abortion on the Wage Distribution: Evidence from the 1970 New York Abortion Reform

Three years before the ruling on Roe v. Wade, New York became the first state to allow all women legal access to abortion on demand. In this study, I determine the extent to which this change in reproductive rights impacted the characteristics of mothers giving birth in New York, their newborns, and these children’s future wages. I first use birth certificate data and a regression discontinuity design to examine the socioeconomic status of infants conceived in the weeks before and after New York’s reform. This analysis suggests that after abortion’s legalization, children were born into families with greater resources. Next, using reported age and quarter of birth in the 2005 to 2010 American Community Surveys, I estimate the probability that a worker’s mother completed her first trimester of pregnancy after the New York reform and thus had access to legal abortion. I then compare the wages of native-born New Yorkers reporting the same age (in whole years) but with different estimates of mother’s abortion access. By allowing women to better-time their births, the legalization of abortion increased the eventual wages of black, Hispanic, and lower-wage workers.

Do Outside Options Matter Inside Marriage? Evidence from State Welfare Reforms

I analyze the impact of the early 1990s state waivers from Aid to Families with Dependent Children (AFDC) guidelines to understand how changes in options outside of marriage affect household expenditures. AFDC waivers decreased the public assistance available to impoverished divorced women and thereby reduced a womans bargaining threat point in marriage. Using the Consumer Expenditure Survey (CEX) and an empirical synthetic control approach, I find that decreases in potential welfare benefits altered the expenditure patterns of two-parent families. Waivers were associated with increased expenditure on food at home relative to restaurant meals and decreased expenditure on child care and womens clothing, suggesting greater home production and decreased consumption by women. Such changes are evident only for households containing a woman with a reasonable probability of receiving welfare benefits if her marriage ended. The changes in expenditure patterns suggest that reductions in a wifes outside options cause her utility within marriage to decline.