Daneswar Poonyth

Determinants of adoption and intensity of use of improved maize varieties in the Central Highlands of Ethiopia: A Tobit analysis

This study employed a Tobit model to examine factors that influence the adoption and intensity of utilisation of improved maize varieties in the West Shoa Zone in the central highlands of Ethiopia. The estimated results indicate that level of education, household labour, farm size, extension services, farm income, and timely availability of improved maize seeds significantly influence the adoption and intensity of use of improved maize. It also showed that the impact of off-farm income and age of the household head on adoption and intensity of use of improved maize seed was insignificant.

Random Coefficients Analysis of Changes in Meat Consumption Preferences in South Africa

This study is designed to investigate changes in consumer preferences for meat in South Africa using Kalman random coefficients filtering techniques. The results provide substantial empirical evidence in support of notable changes in meat consumption patterns. The changes in meat consumption pattern can be attributed to changes in the prices of products. The empirical results indicate a long run growth prospect for white meat consumption. This study provides vital information for meat market analysis and projection of meat demand in South Africa.

FORECASTING THE MARKET OUTLOOK FOR THE SOUTH AFRICAN MAIZE AND SORGHUM SECTOR USING ECONOMETRIC MODELLING

In this study, an econometric model of the South African maize and sorghum sector is estimated. Using the developed model, a market outlook for the two major grain sectors -maize and sorghum -for 1999/00 to 2006/07, is generated under the specified assumptions. Results indicate that for both maize and sorghum, consumption will gradually increase over time. In spite of varying areas of maize and sorghum being harvested, total production will also gradually increase over time due to increases in particularly yields.

THE IMPACT OF REAL EXCHANGE RATE CHANGES ON SOUTH AFRICAN AGRICULTURAL EXPORTS: AN ERROR CORRECTION MODEL APPROACH

This study evaluates the long run and short run effects of real exchange rate changes on South African agricultural exports using an Error Correction Model (ECM). The results suggest that there is a unidirectional causal flow from exchange rate to agricultural exports. Moreover, appreciation of the Rand will be detrimental to agricultural exports.

Representing the production structure of South African agriculture

This paper evaluates the production structure of the South African agricultural sector for the period 1970–1998, using a translog function. The results show that the production structure is best represented by production technology that is Hicks-neutral and homothetic. This information is useful in evaluating the results of previous research on the structure of South African agricultural production, particularly relatively recent research on elasticities of substitution. In addition, it also provides the basis for meaningful future analysis of aspects related to the production structure of agriculture.

THE IMPACT OF THE WTO AGRICULTURAL NEGOTIATING MODALITIES ON SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY COUNTRIES

Abstract This paper assesses the likely impact on the agricultural sector of the Southern African Development Community (SADC) countries of the Harbinson modalities, along with the EU and US proposals as alternative scenarios in the context of the ongoing negotiations of the WTO Agreement on Agriculture. Impacts are assessed on a number of indicators, notably government revenue, producer, consumer and total welfare measures and trade flow. Reflecting country- and commodity-specific factors, the three modalities have different impacts on the indicators. The SADC as a whole is found to lose in terms of total welfare under all three proposals. But while this loss under the Harbinson and EU proposals is due to declines in consumer surpluses and government revenues, reduced producer surplus and government revenue explain the loss in total welfare under the US proposal. Thus, the ranking of the modalities differs according to the impact indicator used, revealing important trade-offs in the choice of the modalities. An issue raised is the value of consumer gains relative to producer gains for low-income economies highly dependent on agriculture because for them effective demand for consumption itself depends on incomes generated from increased agricultural activities, which in turn requires sustained gains in producer surpluses. The paper presents a range of results and discusses the trade-offs, with the hope that SADC trade negotiators and policy makers find these to be useful as they negotiate for the final form of the modalities.

BIASES AND EFFECTIVENESS OF EXTENSION SERVICESTO MAIZE FARMERS IN KENYA BEFORE AND AFTER THE TRAINING AND VISIT SYSTEM

The effectiveness of the training and visit (T&V) extension method in reversing typical biases of the previous conventional system of extension services in Kenya was investigated using multinomial logistic regression analysis. The study provided empirical evidence supporting reduction in biases against small-scale, young and uneducated farmers and remote areas. On the other hand, the bias against marginal production environments and women continued under the T&V system, though at lower rates than before. Efficacy of the T&V system was also confirmed through promotion of higher adoption of improved technologies. This was mainly attributed to the effective mechanisms and better quality of information delivered through the indirect contact methods of T&V.