Danial Stratford

Modelling population responses to flow

Many fish species are dependent upon flows to trigger breeding, facilitate high recruitment of offspring, and to maintain adult survival rates. Understanding how fish populations respond to different flow regimes is important in regulated waterways as subtle changes in regimes have the potential to influence both fish breeding and survival. In this paper, we describe an age-structured population response model that explores how quantitative changes in the flow regime can lead to changes in fish population size and structure through time. We use three large bodied fish species (golden perch, Murray cod and the invasive common carp) from the mid Murray River near Barmah-Millewa Forest to explore the possible responses to the observed flow regime over a 30-year period. The model links flow volumes, seasonality, temperature and rates of fall to the fecundity and survival rates for the different fish species to project population change through time. We have developed a fish population response model to evaluate flow regimes.The model uses daily flow and water temperature to determine population response.Population response is modelled using an age-structured matrix model.Model outputs are explored with sensitivity analysis and provisional confirmation.

Priority Threat Management for biodiversity conservation: A handbook

Threats to biodiversity and the integrity of ecological systems are escalating globally, both within and outside of protected areas. Decision makers have inadequate resources to manage all threats and typically lack information on the likely outcomes and cost‐effectiveness of possible management strategies. Priority Threat Management (PTM) is an emerging approach designed to address this challenge, by defining and appraising cost‐effective strategies for mitigating threats to biodiversity across regions. The scientific and practical impacts of PTM are increasing, with a growing number of case study applications across the globe. Here, we provide guidance and resource material for conducting the PTM process based on our experience delivering six large‐scale projects across Australia and Canada. Our handbook describes the four stages of PTM: scoping and planning; defining and collecting key elements; analysing the cost‐effectiveness of strategies; and communicating and integrating recommendations. We summarise critical tips, strengths, and limitations and scope for possible enhancements of the approach. Priority Threat Management harnesses scientific and expert‐derived information to prioritise management strategies based on their benefit to biodiversity, management costs and feasibility. The approach involves collaboration with key experts and stakeholders in a region to improve knowledge sharing and conservation support. The PTM approach identifies sets of regional level strategies that together provide the greatest benefits for multiple species under a limited budget, which can be used to inform existing processes for decision‐making. The PTM approach applies some generalisations in management strategies and resolution, in order to address complex challenges. Further developments of the approach include testing in a greater range of socioecological systems with adaptations that cater for multiobjective decisions. Synthesis and applications. Priority Threat Management is a decision science approach that brings people together to define and prioritise strategies for managing threats to biodiversity across broad regions. It delivers a prospectus for investment in the biodiversity of a region that is transparent, repeatable, participatory, and based on the best available information. Our handbook provides the necessary guidance and resources for expanding the Priority Threat Management approach to new locations, contexts, and challenges.

Making the best use of experts' estimates to prioritise monitoring and management actions: A freshwater case study

Under limited time and resources, ecological managers are under increasing pressure to demonstrate tangible impact of monitoring activities. Value of Information (VOI) has been advocated as an ideal tool to evaluate whether more data is required to improve expected management outcomes. Yet, despite several recent works explaining its value, VOI remains seldom used in practice. Here we provide an example of a successful ecological application of VOI. We apply VOI to a novel multi-objective freshwater management problem and show how to make the best use of expert data through a robust sensitivity analysis. Unlike previous VOI approaches, our analysis provides statistical confidence to our recommendations. We apply our approach to the recovery of Moira grass (Pseudoraphis spinescens) plains, a threatened vegetation community at the Ramsar-listed Barmah Forest on the Murray River, Australia. Working closely with managers, we discovered that although many threats may impede Moira grass recovery, reducing grazing pressure and applying ideal depth and duration of flooding were most likely to lead to recovery. We found that learning from monitoring can significantly increase the existing extent of Moira grass, although these gains are modest compared to immediate management action. Our study shows how VOI can be used to demonstrate efficient use of limited environmental water to maximise ecological impact and increase transparency when making monitoring or management decisions. More broadly, the study methods will be of interest to any environmental manager who needs to prioritise monitoring and evaluation activities subject to a limited research budget. At a time where researchers and managers are asked to be more accountable for their decision-making, VOI provides a very accessible tool that can speed up the decision of whether to wait and collect more data or act immediately despite uncertainty.

Calling phenology of a diverse amphibian assemblage in response to meteorological conditions

The strong association between amphibian activity, breeding and recruitment with local environmental conditions raises concerns regarding how changes in climate may affect the persistence of species populations into the future. Additionally, in a highly diverse assemblage of anurans, competition for breeding sites affects the time and duration of activity, as species compete for limited resources such as water. Meteorological conditions are strong drivers of amphibian activity, so we assessed whether temperature, rainfall, atmospheric pressure and humidity were associated with the calling phenology of an assemblage of anurans in South East Queensland, Australia. We performed calling surveys and collected digital recordings at 45 ponds in an area known for high anuran diversity. We performed detection analyses to investigate the influence of 10 meteorological variables in detection of calling activity in 19 amphibian species. Our results suggest four breeding strategies in the assemblage: explosive summer breeders, prolonged breeders, opportunistic breeders and a winter breeder. Classifying these species into associations provides a framework for understanding how species respond to environmental conditions. Explosive breeders (i.e. species demonstrating short and highly synchronised breeding periods) were particularly responsive to temperature. Our findings help elucidate the breeding phenology of frogs and provide valuable information on their mating systems in native Australian forests. This study highlights the difficulties of surveying even common anurans. We highlight the importance of predictability and stability in climate and the vulnerability of species for which reproduction appears to require highly specific environmental cues.