Rocio Ponce-Reyes

Vulnerability of cloud forest reserves in Mexico to climate change

Tropical montane cloud forests are among the most vulnerable terrestrial ecosystems to climate change(1-3) owing to their restricted climatic requirements and their narrow and fragmented distribution(4). Although 12% of Mexican cloud forest is protected, it is not known whether reserves will ensure the persistence of the ecosystem and its endemic species under climate change. Here, we show that 68% of Mexicos cloud forest could vanish by 2080 because of climate change and more than 90% of cloud forest that is protected at present will not be climatically suitable for that ecosystem in 2080. Moreover, if we assume unprotected forests are cleared, 99% of the entire ecosystem could be lost through a combination of climate change and habitat loss, resulting in the extinction of about 70% of endemic cloud forest vertebrate species. Immediate action is required to minimize this loss-expansion of the protected-area estate in areas of low climate vulnerability is an urgent priority. Our analysis indicates that one key area for immediate protection is the Sierra de Juarez in Oaxaca. This area supports many endemic species and is expected to retain relatively large fragments of cloud forest despite rapid climate change.

Priority threat management of invasive animals to protect biodiversity under climate change

Climate change is a major threat to global biodiversity, and its impacts can act synergistically to heighten the severity of other threats. Most research on projecting species range shifts under climate change has not been translated to informing priority management strategies on the ground. We develop a prioritization framework to assess strategies for managing threats to biodiversity under climate change and apply it to the management of invasive animal species across one-sixth of the Australian continent, the Lake Eyre Basin. We collected information from key stakeholders and experts on the impacts of invasive animals on 148 of the regions most threatened species and 11 potential strategies. Assisted by models of current distributions of threatened species and their projected distributions, experts estimated the cost, feasibility, and potential benefits of each strategy for improving the persistence of threatened species with and without climate change. We discover that the relative cost-effectiveness of invasive animal control strategies is robust to climate change, with the management of feral pigs being the highest priority for conserving threatened species overall. Complementary sets of strategies to protect as many threatened species as possible under limited budgets change when climate change is considered, with additional strategies required to avoid impending extinctions from the region. Overall, we find that the ranking of strategies by cost-effectiveness was relatively unaffected by including climate change into decision-making, even though the benefits of the strategies were lower. Future climate conditions and impacts on range shifts become most important to consider when designing comprehensive management plans for the control of invasive animals under limited budgets to maximize the number of threatened species that can be protected.