Daniel A. Axelrad

Dose-Response Relationship of Prenatal Mercury Exposure and IQ: An Integrative Analysis of Epidemiologic Data

Background Prenatal exposure to mercury has been associated with adverse childhood neurologic outcomes in epidemiologic studies. Dose–response information for this relationship is useful for estimating benefits of reduced mercury exposure. Objectives We estimated a dose–response relationship between maternal mercury body burden and subsequent childhood decrements in intelligence quotient (IQ), using a Bayesian hierarchical model to integrate data from three epidemiologic studies. Methods Inputs to the model consist of dose–response coefficients from studies conducted in the Faroe Islands, New Zealand, and the Seychelles Islands. IQ coefficients were available from previous work for the latter two studies, and a coefficient for the Faroe Islands study was estimated from three IQ subtests. Other tests of cognition/achievement were included in the hierarchical model to obtain more accurate estimates of study-to-study and end point–to–end point variability. Results We find a central estimate of −0.18 IQ points (95% confidence interval, −0.378 to −0.009) for each parts per million increase of maternal hair mercury, similar to the estimates for both the Faroe Islands and Seychelles studies, and lower in magnitude than the estimate for the New Zealand study. Sensitivity analyses produce similar results, with the IQ coefficient central estimate ranging from −0.13 to −0.25. Conclusions IQ is a useful end point for estimating neurodevelopmental effects, but may not fully represent cognitive deficits associated with mercury exposure, and does not represent deficits related to attention and motor skills. Nevertheless, the integrated IQ coefficient provides a more robust description of the dose–response relationship for prenatal mercury exposure and cognitive functioning than results of any single study.

Estimated daily phthalate exposures in a population of mothers of male infants exhibiting reduced anogenital distance.

Phthalate diesters have been shown to be developmental and reproductive toxicants in animal studies. A recent epidemiologic study showed certain phthalates to be significantly associated with reduced anogenital distance in human male infants, the first evidence of subtle developmental effects in human male infants exposed prenatally to phthalates. We used two previously published methods to estimate the daily phthalate exposures for the four phthalates whose urinary metabolites were statistically significantly associated with developmental effects in the 214 mother–infant pairs [di-n-butyl phthalate (DnBP), diethyl phthalate (DEP), butylbenzyl phthalate (BBzP), diisobutyl phthalate (DiBP)] and for another important phthalate [di-2-ethylhexyl phthalate (DEHP)]. We estimated the median and 95th percentile of daily exposures to DBP to be 0.99 and 2.68 μg/kg/day, respectively; for DEP, 6.64 and 112.3 μg/kg/day; for BBzP, 0.50 and 2.47 μg/kg/day; and for DEHP, 1.32 and 9.32 μg/kg/day. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) reference doses for these chemicals are 100 (DBP), 800 (DEP), 200 (BBzP), and 20 (DEHP) μg/kg/day. The median and 95th percentile exposure estimates for the phthalates associated with reduced anogenital distance in the study population are substantially lower than current U.S. EPA reference doses for these chemicals and could be informative to any updates of the hazard assessments and risk assessments for these chemicals.

The Navigation guide—evidence-based medicine meets environmental health: Systematic review of human evidence for PFOA effects on fetal growth

Background: In contrast to current methods of expert-based narrative review, the Navigation Guide is a systematic and transparent method for synthesizing environmental health research from multiple evidence streams. The Navigation Guide was developed to effectively and efficiently translate the available scientific evidence into timely prevention-oriented action. Objectives: We applied the Navigation Guide systematic review method to answer the question “Does fetal developmental exposure to perfluorooctanoic acid (PFOA) or its salts affect fetal growth in animals ?” and to rate the strength of the experimental animal evidence. Methods: We conducted a comprehensive search of the literature, applied prespecified criteria to the search results to identify relevant studies, extracted data from studies, obtained additional information from study authors, conducted meta-analyses, and rated the overall quality and strength of the evidence. Results: Twenty-one studies met the inclusion criteria. From the meta-analysis of eight mouse gavage data sets, we estimated that exposure of pregnant mice to increasing concentrations of PFOA was associated with a change in mean pup birth weight of –0.023 g (95% CI: –0.029, –0.016) per 1-unit increase in dose (milligrams per kilogram body weight per day). The evidence, consisting of 15 mammalian and 6 nonmammalian studies, was rated as “moderate” and “low” quality, respectively. Conclusion: Based on this first application of the Navigation Guide methodology, we found sufficient evidence that fetal developmental exposure to PFOA reduces fetal growth in animals. Citation: Koustas E, Lam J, Sutton P, Johnson PI, Atchley DS, Sen S, Robinson KA, Axelrad DA, Woodruff TJ. 2014. The Navigation Guide—evidence-based medicine meets environmental health: systematic review of nonhuman evidence for PFOA effects on fetal growth. Environ Health Perspect 122:1015–1027; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/ehp.1307177

Air Toxics and Health Risks in California: The Public Health Implications of Outdoor Concentrations

Of the 188 hazardous air pollutants (HAPs) listed in the Clean Air Act, only a handful have information on human health effects, derived primarily from animal and occupational studies. Lack of consistent monitoring data on ambient air toxics makes it difficult to assess the extent of low-level, chronic, ambient exposures to HAPs that could affect human health, and limits attempts to prioritize and evaluate policy initiatives for emissions reduction. Modeled outdoor HAP concentration estimates from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agencys Cumulative Exposure Project were used to characterize the extent of the air toxics problem in California for the base year of 1990. These air toxics concentration estimates were used with chronic toxicity data to estimate cancer and noncancer hazards for individual HAPs and the risks posed by multiple pollutants. Although hazardous air pollutants are ubiquitous in the environment, potential cancer and noncancer health hazards posed by ambient exposures are geographically concentrated in three urbanized areas and in a few rural counties. This analysis estimated a median excess individual cancer risk of 2.7E-4 for all air toxics concentrations and 8600 excess lifetime cancer cases, 70% of which were attributable to four pollutants: polycyclic organic matter, 1,3 butadiene, formaldehyde, and benzene. For noncancer effects, the analysis estimated a total hazard index representing the combined effect of all HAPs considered. Each pollutant contributes to the index a ratio of estimated concentration to reference concentration. The median value of the index across census tracts was 17, due primarily to acrolein and chromium concentration estimates. On average, HAP concentrations and cancer and noncancer health risks originate mostly from area and mobile source emissions, although there are several locations in the state where point sources account for a large portion of estimated concentrations and health risks. Risk estimates from this study can provide guidance for prioritizing research, monitoring, and regulatory intervention activities to reduce potential hazards to the general population. Improved ambient monitoring efforts can help clarify uncertainties inherent in this analysis.

The Navigation Guide - evidence-based medicine meets environmental health: integration of animal and human evidence for PFOA effects on fetal growth.

Background: The Navigation Guide is a novel systematic review method to synthesize scientific evidence and reach strength of evidence conclusions for environmental health decision making. Objective: Our aim was to integrate scientific findings from human and nonhuman studies to determine the overall strength of evidence for the question “Does developmental exposure to perfluorooctanoic acid (PFOA) affect fetal growth in humans?” Methods: We developed and applied prespecified criteria to systematically and transparently a) rate the quality of the scientific evidence as “high,” “moderate,” or “low”; b) rate the strength of the human and nonhuman evidence separately as “sufficient,” “limited,” “moderate,” or “evidence of lack of toxicity”; and c) integrate the strength of the human and nonhuman evidence ratings into a strength of the evidence conclusion. Results: We identified 18 epidemiology studies and 21 animal toxicology studies relevant to our study question. We rated both the human and nonhuman mammalian evidence as “moderate” quality and “sufficient” strength. Integration of these evidence ratings produced a final strength of evidence rating in which review authors concluded that PFOA is “known to be toxic” to human reproduction and development based on sufficient evidence of decreased fetal growth in both human and nonhuman mammalian species. Conclusion: We concluded that developmental exposure to PFOA adversely affects human health based on sufficient evidence of decreased fetal growth in both human and nonhuman mammalian species. The results of this case study demonstrate the application of a systematic and transparent methodology, via the Navigation Guide, for reaching strength of evidence conclusions in environmental health. Citation: Lam J, Koustas E, Sutton P, Johnson PI, Atchley DS, Sen S, Robinson KA, Axelrad DA, Woodruff TJ. 2014. The Navigation Guide—evidence-based medicine meets environmental health: integration of animal and human evidence for PFOA effects on fetal growth. Environ Health Perspect 122:1040–1051; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/ehp.1307923

Meeting Report: Moving Upstream—Evaluating Adverse Upstream End Points for Improved Risk Assessment and Decision-Making

Background Assessing adverse effects from environmental chemical exposure is integral to public health policies. Toxicology assays identifying early biological changes from chemical exposure are increasing our ability to evaluate links between early biological disturbances and subsequent overt downstream effects. A workshop was held to consider how the resulting data inform consideration of an “adverse effect” in the context of hazard identification and risk assessment. Objectives Our objective here is to review what is known about the relationships between chemical exposure, early biological effects (upstream events), and later overt effects (downstream events) through three case studies (thyroid hormone disruption, antiandrogen effects, immune system disruption) and to consider how to evaluate hazard and risk when early biological effect data are available. Discussion Each case study presents data on the toxicity pathways linking early biological perturbations with downstream overt effects. Case studies also emphasize several factors that can influence risk of overt disease as a result from early biological perturbations, including background chemical exposures, underlying individual biological processes, and disease susceptibility. Certain effects resulting from exposure during periods of sensitivity may be irreversible. A chemical can act through multiple modes of action, resulting in similar or different overt effects. Conclusions For certain classes of early perturbations, sufficient information on the disease process is known, so hazard and quantitative risk assessment can proceed using information on upstream biological perturbations. Upstream data will support improved approaches for considering developmental stage, background exposures, disease status, and other factors important to assessing hazard and risk for the whole population.

PCB body burdens in US women of childbearing age 2001-2002: An evaluation of alternate summary metrics of NHANES data.

An extensive body of epidemiologic data associates prenatal exposure to polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) with neurodevelopmental deficits and other childhood health effects. Neurological effects and other adverse health effects may also result from exposure during infancy, childhood, and adulthood. Although manufacture and use of PCBs were banned in the US in 1977, exposure to PCBs is a continuing concern due to the widespread distribution of these compounds in the environment and their persistence. The National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey provides PCB body burden measurements representative of the US population for the years 1999-2002. Interpretation of these data is challenging due to the large number of PCB congeners reported. We examined 6 PCB body burden metrics to identify an approach for summarizing the NHANES data and for characterizing changes over time in potential risks to childrens health. We focused on women of childbearing age, defined here as 16-39 years, because in utero exposures have been associated with neurodevelopmental effects, and used only the 2001-2002 data because of higher detection rates. The 6 metrics, each consisting of different combinations of the 9 most frequently detected congeners, were as follows: total PCBs (all 9 congeners); highly chlorinated PCBs (2 congeners); dioxin-like PCBs (3 congeners, weighted by toxic equivalency factors); non-dioxin-like PCBs (6 congeners); a 4-congener metric (PCBs 118, 138, 153, and 180); and PCB-153 alone. The PCB metrics were generally highly correlated with each other. There was a strong association of PCB body burdens with age for all metrics. Median body burdens of Mexican American women were lower than those of non-Hispanic White and non-Hispanic Black women for 5 of the 6 metrics, and there were no significant differences in body burdens between the latter two groups. Body burdens of women with incomes above poverty level were greater than those for lower-income women at the median and 95th percentiles, but the differences were not statistically significant for any metric. We conclude that the 4-congener and total PCBs metrics are the most promising approaches for tracking changes in body burdens over time and for comparing body burdens of different subgroups in NHANES.

Estimating risk from ambient concentrations of acrolein across the United States.

Background Estimated ambient concentrations of acrolein, a hazardous air pollutant, are greater than the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) reference concentration throughout the United States, making it a concern for human health. However, there is no method for assessing the extent of risk under the U.S. EPA noncancer risk assessment framework. Objectives We estimated excess risks from ambient concentrations of acrolein based on dose–response modeling of a study in rats with a relationship between acrolein and residual volume/total lung capacity ratio (RV/TLC) and specific compliance (sCL), markers for altered lung function. Methods Based on existing literature, we defined values above the 90th percentile for controls as “adverse.” We estimated the increase over baseline response that would occur in the human population from estimated ambient concentrations of acrolein, taken from the U.S. EPA’s National-Scale Air Toxics Assessment for 1999, after standard animal-to-human conversions and extrapolating to doses below the experimental data. Results The estimated median additional number of adverse sCL outcomes across the United States was approximately 2.5 cases per 1,000 people. The estimated range of additional outcomes from the 5th to the 95th percentile of acrolein concentration levels across census tracts was 0.28–14 cases per 1,000. For RV/TLC, the median additional outcome was 0.002 per 1,000, and the additional outcome at the 95th percentile was 0.13 per 1,000. Conclusions Although there are uncertainties in estimating human risks from animal data, this analysis demonstrates a method for estimating health risks for noncancer effects and suggests that acrolein could be associated with decreased respiratory function in the United States.

Upstream adverse effects in risk assessment: A model of polychlorinated biphenyls, thyroid hormone disruption and neurological outcomes in humans

BACKGROUND Increasing data on early biological changes from chemical exposures requires new interpretation tools to support decision-making. OBJECTIVES To test the possibility of applying a quantitative approach using human data linking chemical exposures and upstream biological perturbations to overt downstream outcomes. METHODS Using polychlorinated biphenyl (PCB) exposures and maternal thyroid hormone (TH) perturbations as a case study, we model three relationships: (1) prenatal PCB exposures and TH changes, using free T(4) (FT(4)); (2) prenatal TH and childhood neurodevelopmental outcomes; and (3) prenatal PCB exposures and childhood neurodevelopmental outcomes (IQ). We surveyed the epidemiological literature; extracted relevant quantitative data; and developed models for each relationship, applying meta-analysis where appropriate. RESULTS For relationship 1, a meta-analysis of 3 studies gives a coefficient of -0.27 pg/mL FT(4) per ln(sum of PCBs) (95% confidence interval [CI] -0.82 to 0.27). For relationship 2, regression coefficients from three studies of maternal FT(4) levels and cognitive scores ranged between 0.99 IQ points/(pg/mL FT(4)) (95% CI -0.31 to 2.2) and 7.6 points/(pg/mL FT(4)) (95% CI 1.2 to 16.3). For relationship 3, a meta-analysis of five studies produces a coefficient of -1.98 IQ points (95% CI -4.46 to 0.50) per unit increase in ln(sum of PCBs). Combining relationships 1 and 2 yields an estimate of -2.0 to -0.27 points of IQ per unit increase in ln(sum of PCBs). CONCLUSIONS Combining analysis of chemical exposures and early biological perturbations (PCBs and FT(4)) with analysis of early biological perturbations and downstream overt effects (FT(4) and IQ) yields estimates within the range of studies of exposures and overt effects (PCBs and IQ). This is an example approach using upstream biological perturbations for effect prediction.

Developmental PBDE Exposure and IQ/ADHD in Childhood: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis

Background: In the United States, one in six children are affected by neurodevelopmental disorders, and polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) in flame-retardant chemicals are measured ubiquitously in children. Objective: We conducted a systematic a systematic review regarding developmental exposure to PBDEs and intelligence or Attention Deficit/Hyperactivity Disorder (ADHD) and attention-related behavioral conditions in humans. Methods: We searched articles published up to 26 September 2016, and included original studies that quantified exposures to PBDEs incurred any time in proximity to conception or during in utero, perinatal, or childhood time periods. We evaluated the risk of bias of individual studies and the overall quality and strength of the evidence according to the Navigation Guide systematic review methodology. We established criteria in advance to identify studies that could be combined using random effects meta-analyses (DerSimonian-Laird method). Results: Fifteen studies met the inclusion criteria; 10 studies met the criteria for intelligence and nine for attention-related problems. We rated studies generally with “low” to “probably low” risk of bias and rated the overall body of evidence as “moderate” quality with “sufficient” evidence for an association between Intelligence Quotient (IQ) and PBDEs. Our meta-analysis of four studies estimated a 10-fold increase (in other words, times 10) in PBDE exposure associated with a decrement of 3.70 IQ points (95% confidence interval: 0.83, 6.56). We concluded the body of evidence was of “moderate” quality for ADHD with “limited” evidence for an association with PBDEs, based on the heterogeneity of association estimates reported by a small number of studies and the fact that chance, bias, and confounding could not be ruled out with reasonable confidence. Conclusion: We concluded there was sufficient evidence supporting an association between developmental PBDE exposure and reduced IQ. Preventing developmental exposure to PBDEs could help prevent loss of human intelligence. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP1632