Daniel Ayllón

Thermal Carrying Capacity for a Thermally-Sensitive Species at the Warmest Edge of Its Range

Anthropogenic environmental change is causing unprecedented rates of population extirpation and altering the setting of range limits for many species. Significant population declines may occur however before any reduction in range is observed. Determining and modelling the factors driving population size and trends is consequently critical to predict trajectories of change and future extinction risk. We tracked during 12 years 51 populations of a cold-water fish species (brown trout Salmo trutta) living along a temperature gradient at the warmest thermal edge of its range. We developed a carrying capacity model in which maximum population size is limited by physical habitat conditions and regulated through territoriality. We first tested whether population numbers were driven by carrying capacity dynamics and then targeted on establishing (1) the temperature thresholds beyond which population numbers switch from being physical habitat- to temperature-limited; and (2) the rate at which carrying capacity declines with temperature within limiting thermal ranges. Carrying capacity along with emergent density-dependent responses explained up to 76% of spatio-temporal density variability of juveniles and adults but only 50% of young-of-the-years. By contrast, young-of-the-year trout were highly sensitive to thermal conditions, their performance declining with temperature at a higher rate than older life stages, and disruptions being triggered at lower temperature thresholds. Results suggest that limiting temperature effects were progressively stronger with increasing anthropogenic disturbance. There was however a critical threshold, matching the incipient thermal limit for survival, beyond which realized density was always below potential numbers irrespective of disturbance intensity. We additionally found a lower threshold, matching the thermal limit for feeding, beyond which even unaltered populations declined. We predict that most of our study populations may become extinct by 2100, depicting the gloomy fate of thermally-sensitive species occurring at thermal range margins under limited potential for adaptation and dispersal.

Eco-evolutionary responses to recreational fishing under different harvest regulations

Abstract Harvesting alters demography and life histories of exploited populations, and there is mounting evidence that rapid phenotypic changes at the individual level can occur when harvest is intensive. Therefore, recreational fishing is expected to induce both ecological and rapid evolutionary changes in fish populations and consequently requires rigorous management. However, little is known about the coupled demographic and evolutionary consequences of alternative harvest regulations in managed freshwater fisheries. We used a structurally realistic individual‐based model and implemented an eco‐genetic approach that accounts for microevolution, phenotypic plasticity, adaptive behavior, density‐dependent processes, and cryptic mortality sources (illegal harvest and hooking mortality after catch and release). We explored the consequences of a range of harvest regulations, involving different combinations of exploitation intensity and minimum and maximum‐length limits, on the eco‐evolutionary trajectories of a freshwater fish stock. Our 100‐year simulations of size‐selective harvest through recreational fishing produced negative demographic and structural changes in the simulated population, but also plastic and evolutionary responses that compensated for such changes and prevented population collapse even under intense fishing pressure and liberal harvest regulations. Fishing‐induced demographic and evolutionary changes were driven by the harvest regime, and the strength of responses increased with increasing exploitation intensity and decreasing restriction in length limits. Cryptic mortality strongly amplified the impacts of harvest and might be exerting a selective pressure that opposes that of size‐selective harvest. “Slot” limits on harvestable length had overall positive effects but lower than expected ability to buffer harvest impacts. Harvest regulations strongly shape the eco‐evolutionary dynamics of exploited fish stocks and thus should be considered in setting management policies. Our findings suggest that plastic and evolutionary responses buffer the demographic impacts of fishing, but intense fishing pressure and liberal harvest regulations may lead to an unstructured, juvenescent population that would put the sustainability of the stock at risk. Our study also indicates that high rates of cryptic mortality may make harvest regulations based on harvest slot limits ineffective.