Daniel Bergstresser

Investment Taxation and Portfolio Performance

We use the federal tax codes from 1926 through 2009 to construct the after-tax returns that individual investors, corporations, and broker–dealers would have generated on a set of benchmark portfolios. Portfolio strategies differ in the pace of capital gains realizations. This creates important heterogeneity in effective investment taxation beyond that implied by dividend yields. Tax burdens reduce the return premium that value portfolios earn over growth portfolios and the premium of small market capitalization portfolios over large market capitalization portfolios. Tax burdens exacerbate the equity premium puzzle, although they help explain mixed empirical results about the dividend preferences of high income and corporate investors.

Banking Market Concentration and Consumer Credit Constraints: Evidence from the 1983 Survey of Consumer Finances

This paper uses data from the 1983 Survey of Consumer Finances to test the relationship between the banks’ market power and households’ self-reported levels of credit constraints. The 1983 Survey was the last to identify households’ geographic location, making it useful for this analysis. There is evidence that borrowers, and particularly young borrowers, were less credit-constrained in markets where banks enjoyed more market power. Interest rates on consumer borrowing decreased more sharply with age in competitive markets than in concentrated markets. These results are consistent with the Sharpe (1990) and Petersen-Rajan (1995) models of information acquisition in credit markets.

Market Concentration and Commercial Bank Loan Portfolios

This paper estimates the relationship between banking market concentration and high-risk portfolio strategies at commercial banks. I use the unprecedented changes in the degree of competition in local banking markets that occurred after 1980 to estimate the impact of market competition on the risk profile of commercial bank lending. I find evidence that increasing concentration has been associated with reductions in the flow of bank capital to construction and land development loans, the highest-risk category of commercial bank loans. The magnitude of this effect is large: an increase in concentration from the 25th to the 75th percentile of the sample distribution is associated with a 15 percent drop in the share of bank lending going to construction loans. Robustness to a variety of econometric strategies supports a causal interpretation of this empirical relationship. Increasing concentration also appears to increase average bank capitalization, raise the average share of assets loaned out to borrowers, and reduce bank failure rates during this period. Because the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation assumes the assets and liabilities of failing banks, changes in bank portfolio risk affect the value of the governments contingent liability to the banking sector, as well as the health and stability of the larger economy.

Fractionalization and the Municipal Bond Market

We study the impact of ethnic and religious fractionalization on the U.S. municipal debt market, and find that issuers from more ethnically and religiously fractionalized counties pay higher yields on their municipal debt. A two standard deviation increase in religious fractionalization is associated with a six basis point increase in bond yields, and a two standard deviation increase in ethnic fractionalization is associated with a ten basis point increase. To provide a scale for these results, a four-notch rating change, from AAA to AA-, is associated with an eight basis point increase in yields. Additional analysis suggests that at least some of this effect is not driven by the risk of the bonds, but instead reflects inefficiency in the underwriting process.