James M. Poterba

Tax policy and the economy

The Tax Policy and Economy series presents new research bearing on the effects of taxation on economic performance and analyzing the effects of potential tax reforms. Research results are, presented in a timely and accessible fashion.Volume 4 includes contributions by Glenn Hubbard, Lawrence Goulder, Lawrence Summers, Daniel Feenberg, and Eytan Sheshinski.Lawrence H. Summers is Professor of Economics at Harvard University and Research Associate at the National Bureau of Economic Research.

Demographic structure and the political economy of public education

This article examines the relationship between demographic structure and the level of government spending on K-12 education. Panel data for the states of the United States over the 1960-1990 period suggests that an increase in the fraction of elderly residents in a jurisdiction is associated with a significant reduction in per-child educational spending. This reduction is particularly large when the elderly residents and the school-age population are from different racial groups. Variation in the size of the school-age population does not result in proportionate changes in education spending, thus, students in states with larger school-age populations receive lower per-student spending than those in states with smaller numbers of potential students. These results provide support for models of generational competition in the allocation of public sector resources. They also suggest that the effect of cohort size on government-mediated transfers must be considered in analyzing how cohort size affects economic well-being.

Demographic Structure and Asset Returns

This paper investigates the association between population age structure, particularly the share of the population in the prime saving years (40 to 64), and the returns on stocks and bonds. The paper is motivated by recent claims that the aging of the baby boom cohort is a key factor in explaining the recent rise in asset values, and by predictions that asset prices will decline when this group reaches retirement age and begins to reduce its asset holdings. This paper begins by considering household age-asset accumulation profiles. Data from repeated cross sections of the Survey of Consumer Finances suggest that, whereas age-wealth profiles rise sharply when households are in their thirties and forties, they decline much more gradually when households are in their retirement years. When these data are used to generate projected asset demands based on the projected future age structure of the U.S. population, they do not show a sharp decline in asset demand between 2020 and 2050. The paper considers the historical relationship between demographic structure and real returns on Treasury bills, long-term government bonds, and corporate stock, using data from the United States, Canada, and the United Kingdom. Although theoretical models generally suggest that equilibrium returns on financial assets will vary in response to changes in population age structure, it is difficult to find robust evidence of such relationships in the time series data. This is partly due to the limited power of statistical tests based on the few effective degrees of freedom in the historical record of age structure and asset returns. These results suggest caution in projecting large future changes in asset values on the basis of shifting demographics. Although the projected asset demand does display some correlation with the price-dividend ratio on corporate stocks, this does not portend a sharp prospective decline in asset values, because the projected asset demand variable does not fall in future decades.

Stock Ownership Patterns, Stock Market Fluctuations, and Consumption

The market value of corporate stock in the United States increased by nearly one trillion dollars between December 1994 and July 1995. This paper explores the distribution of the stock ownership, and hence the gains from the stock price rise, and what the rise in stock prices implies for consumer spending.

Is the Gasoline Tax Regressive

Claims of the regressivity of gasoline taxes typically rely on annual surveys of consumer income and expenditures, which show that gasoline expenditures are a larger fraction of income for very low-income households than for middle- or high-income households. This paper argues that annual expenditure provides a more reliable indicator of household well-being than annual income. It uses data from the Consumer Expenditure Survey to reassess the claim that gasoline taxes are regressive by computing the share of total expenditures that high-spending and low-spending households devote to retail gasoline purchases. This alternative approach shows that low-expenditure households devote a smaller share of their budget to gasoline than do their counterparts in the middle of the expenditure distribution. Although households in the top 5% of the total spending distribution spend less on gasoline than those who are less well off, the share of expenditure devoted to gasoline is much more stable across the population than the ratio of gasoline outlays to current income. The gasoline tax thus appears far less regressive than conventional analyses suggest.

Do 401(k) contributions crowd out other personal saving

During the late 1980s. contributions to 401(k) plans eclipsed contributions to Individual Retirement Accounts as the leading form of tax-deferred individual retirement saving. This paper uses data from the 1984. 1987. and 1991 Surveys of Income and Program Participation to describe patterns of participation in and contributions to 401(k) plans. and to evaluate the net impact of these contributions on personal saving. We find that 401(k) participation conditional on eligibility exceeds sixty percent at all income levels. This pattern contrasts with Individual Retirement Accounts in the early 1980s. which exhibited a sharply rising profile of participation across income groups. We study the net effect of 401(k) contributions on personal saving by comparing the growth of non-401(k) assets for contributors and noncontributors. and by comparing the level of wealth for families who are eligible for 401(k)s with that of those who are not. We find little evidence that 401(k) contributions substitute for other forms of private saving. We also explore the substitutability of 401(k) contributions for IRA contributions. and revisit the question of whether IRAs substitute for other types of saving. Our findings suggest little substitution on either margin.

Joint life annuities and annuity demand by married couples

This paper explores the value of purchasing joint life annuities for married couples. It describes the existing market for joint life annuities, and summarizes the range of annuity products that are currently available to couples. It then considers the value that married couples would place on access to an actuarially fair annuity market, and defines a measure of willingness-to-pay for annuities. This calculation differs from the analogous one for a single individual for two reasons. First, joint-and-survivor life tables differ from individual life tables. The life expectancy of the second-to-die in a married couple is substantially greater than that for a single individual. Second, joint life annuities provide time-varying payouts, because survivor benefit options permit the payout when both members of a couple are alive to differ from that when one member has died. The paper develops a new annuity valuation model and applies it to evaluate a married couples utility gain from annuitization. The findings suggest that previous estimates of the utility gain from annuitization, which applied to individuals, overstate the benefits of annuitization for married couples. Since most potential annuity buyers are married, these findings may help to explain the limited size of the private market for single premium annuities.

The Price of Popularity: The Political Business Cycle Reexamined

This paper examines the validity of the political business cycle theory as a description of the macroeconomic policy process in the United States. It considers the ability of incumbent presidents to enhance their approval ratings by manipulating monetary and fiscal tools. The first section estimates the potential political gains from economic expansion and finds that the stimulus needed to produce even small popularity gains is substantial. The second section examines the extent to which government economic policy has been influenced by the political environment. Reaction functions for various policy instruments are estimated, and the results are shown to cast substantial doubt on the importance of the political business cycle hypothesis as an explanation of macroeconomic policy.

The effective tax rate and the pretax rate of return

This paper presents new estimates of the taxes paid on nonfinancial corporate capital, on the pretax rate of return to capital, and on the effective tax rate. The basic time series show that both the pretax rate of return and the effective tax rate have varied substantially in the past quarter century. An explicit analysis indicates that, after adjusting for different aspects of the business cycle, pretax profitability was between one and 1.5 percentage points lower in the 1970s than in the 1960s. The rate of profitability in the 1960s was also about one-half of a percentage point greater than the profitability in the 7 years of the 1950s after the Korean war. Changes in productivity growth, in inflation, in relative unit labor costs, and in other variables are all associated with changes in profitability. None of these variables, however, can explain the differences in profitability between the 1950Ts, 1960s and 1970s. Looking at broad decade averages, the effective tax rate and the pretax rate of return move in opposite directions, higher pretax profits occurring when the tax rate is high. There thus appears to have been no tendency for pretax profits to vary in a way that offsets differences in effective tax rates.

Income Inequality and the Incomes of Very High Income Taxpayers: Evidence from Tax Returns

This paper uses tax return data for the period 1951-1990 to investigate the rising share of adjusted gross income (AGI) that is reported on very high income tax returns. We find that most of this increase is due to a rise in reported income for the one quarter of one percent of taxpayers with the highest AGIs. The share of total AGI reported by these taxpayers rose slowly in the early 1980s, and increased sharply in 1987 and 1988. This pattern suggests that at least part of the increase in the income share of high-AGI taxpayers was due to the changing tax incentives that were enacted in the 1986 Tax Reform Act. By lowering marginal tax rates on top-income households from 50% to 28%, TRA86 reduced the incentive for these households to engage in tax avoidance activities. We also find substantial differences in the growth of the income share of the highest one quarter of one percent of taxpayers, and the share of other very high income taxpayers. This casts doubt on the view that the increasing inequality of reported incomes at very high levels is driven by the same factors that have generated widening wage inequality at lower income levels.