Daniel D. B. Koll

The dependence of transient climate sensitivity and radiative feedbacks on the spatial pattern of ocean heat uptake

The effect of ocean heat uptake (OHU) on transient global warming is studied in a multimodel framework. Simple heat sinks are prescribed in shallow aquaplanet ocean mixed layers underlying atmospheric general circulation models independently and combined with CO_2 forcing. Sinks are localized to either tropical or high latitudes, representing distinct modes of OHU found in coupled simulations. Tropical OHU produces modest cooling at all latitudes, offsetting only a fraction of CO_2 warming. High-latitude OHU produces three times more global mean cooling in a strongly polar-amplified pattern. Global sensitivities in each scenario are set primarily by large differences in local shortwave cloud feedbacks, robust across models. Differences in atmospheric energy transport set the pattern of temperature change. Results imply that global and regional warming rates depend sensitively on regional ocean processes setting the OHU pattern, and that equilibrium climate sensitivity cannot be reliably estimated from transient observations.

The Jormungand global climate state and implications for Neoproterozoic glaciations

[1] Geological and geochemical evidence can be interpreted as indicating strong hysteresis in global climate during the Neoproterozoic glacial events (∼630 Ma and ∼715 Ma). Standard climate theory only allows such strong hysteresis if global climate enters a fully‐glaciated “Snowball” state. However, the survival of photosynthetic, eukaryotic, marine species through these glaciations may indicate that there were large areas of open ocean. A previously‐proposed “Slushball” model for Neoproterozoic glaciations could easily explain the survival of these organisms because it has open ocean throughout the tropics, but there is only a small amount of hysteresis associated with the Slushball state. In this paper a new state of global climate, the “Jormungand” state, is proposed. In this state the ocean is very nearly globally ice‐covered, but a very small strip of the tropical ocean remains ice‐free. The low ice latitude of the Jormungand state is a consequence of the low albedo of snow‐free (bare) sea ice. If the ice latitude propagates into the subtropical desert zone, it can stabilize without collapsing to the equator because subtropical ice‐covered regions have a relatively low top‐of‐atmosphere albedo as a result of the exposure of bare sea ice and relatively lower cloud cover. Moreover, there is strong hysteresis associated with the Jormungand state as greenhouse gas levels are varied because of the high albedo contrast between regions of bare and snow covered sea ice. The Jormungand state is illustrated here in two different atmospheric global climate models and in the Budyko‐Sellers model. By offering a scenario that could explain both strong hysteresis in global climate and the survival of life, the Jormungand state represents a potential model for Neoproterozoic glaciations, although further study of this issue is needed.

Clouds and Snowball Earth deglaciation

Neoproterozoic, and possibly Paleoproterozoic, glaciations represent the most extreme climate events in post-Hadean Earth, and may link closely with the evolution of the atmosphere and life. According to the Snowball Earth hypothesis, the entire ocean was covered with ice during these events for a few million years, during which time volcanic CO 2 increased enough to cause deglaciation. Geochemical proxy data and model calculations suggest that the maximum CO 2 was 0.01―0.1 by volume, but early climate modeling suggested that deglaciation was not possible at CO 2 = 0.2. We use results from six different general circulation models (GCMs) to show that clouds could warm a Snowball enough to reduce the CO 2 required for deglaciation by a factor of 10―100. Although more work is required to rigorously validate cloud schemes in Snowball-like conditions, our results suggest that Snowball deglaciation is consistent with observations.

Deciphering Thermal Phase Curves of Dry, Tidally Locked Terrestrial Planets

Next-generation space telescopes will allow us to characterize terrestrial exoplanets. To do so effectively it will be crucial to make use of all available data. We investigate which atmospheric properties can, and cannot, be inferred from the broadband thermal phase curve of a dry and tidally locked terrestrial planet. First, we use dimensional analysis to show that phase curves are controlled by six nondimensional parameters. Second, we use an idealized general circulation model (GCM) to explore the relative sensitivity of phase curves to these parameters. We find that the feature of phase curves most sensitive to atmospheric parameters is the peak-to-trough amplitude. Moreover, except for hot and rapidly rotating planets, the phase amplitude is primarily sensitive to only two nondimensional parameters: 1) the ratio of dynamical to radiative timescales, and 2) the longwave optical depth at the surface. As an application of this technique, we show how phase curve measurements can be combined with transit or emission spectroscopy to yield a new constraint for the surface pressure and atmospheric mass of terrestrial planets. We estimate that a single broadband phase curve, measured over half an orbit with the James Webb Space Telescope, could meaningfully constrain the atmospheric mass of a nearby super-Earth. Such constraints will be important for studying the atmospheric evolution of terrestrial exoplanets as well as characterizing the surface conditions on potentially habitable planets.

Differences in Water Vapor Radiative Transfer among 1D Models Can Significantly Affect the Inner Edge of the Habitable Zone

An accurate estimate of the inner edge of the habitable zone is critical for determining which exoplanets are potentially habitable and for designing future telescopes to observe them. Here, we explore differences in estimating the inner edge among seven one-dimensional (1D) radiative transfer models: two line-by-line codes (SMART and LBLRTM) as well as five band codes (CAM3, CAM4_Wolf, LMDG, SBDART, and AM2) that are currently being used in global climate models. We compare radiative fluxes and spectra in clear-sky conditions around G- and M-stars, with fixed moist adiabatic profiles for surface temperatures from 250 to 360 K. We find that divergences among the models arise mainly from large uncertainties in water vapor absorption in the window region (10 um) and in the region between 0.2 and 1.5 um. Differences in outgoing longwave radiation increase with surface temperature and reach 10-20 Wm^-2; differences in shortwave reach up to 60 Wm^-2, especially at the surface and in the troposphere, and are larger for an M-dwarf spectrum than a solar spectrum. Differences between the two line-by-line models are significant, although smaller than among the band models. Our results imply that the uncertainty in estimating the insolation threshold of the inner edge (the runaway greenhouse limit) due only to clear-sky radiative transfer is ~10% of modern Earths solar constant (i.e., ~34 Wm^-2 in global mean) among band models and ~3% between the two line-by-line models. These comparisons show that future work is needed focusing on improving water vapor absorption coefficients in both shortwave and longwave, as well as on increasing the resolution of stellar spectra in broadband models.

Why Tropical Sea Surface Temperature is Insensitive to Ocean Heat Transport Changes

Previous studies have shown that increases in poleward ocean heat transport (OHT) do not strongly affect tropical SST. The goal of this paper is to explain this observation. To do so, the authors force two atmospheric global climatemodels (GCMs)in aquaplanet configuration with a varietyof prescribed OHTs. It is found that increased OHT weakens the Hadley circulation, which decreases equatorial cloud cover and shortwave reflection, as well as reduces surface winds and evaporation, which both limit changes in tropical SST. The authors also modify one of the GCMs by alternatively setting the radiative effect of clouds to zero and disabling wind-driven evaporation changes to show that the cloud feedback is more important than the wind‐ evaporation feedback for maintaining constant equatorial SST as OHT changes. This work highlights the fact that OHT can reduce the meridional SST gradient without affecting tropical SST and could therefore serve as an additional degree of freedom for explaining past warm climates.

Temperature Structure and Atmospheric Circulation of Dry, Tidally Locked Rocky Exoplanets

Next-generation space telescopes will observe the atmospheres of rocky planets orbiting nearby M-dwarfs. Understanding these observations will require well-developed theory in addition to numerical simulations. Here we present theoretical models for the temperature structure and atmospheric circulation of dry, tidally locked rocky exoplanets with gray radiative transfer and test them using a general circulation model (GCM). First, we develop a radiative-convective (RC) model that captures surface temperatures of slowly rotating and cool atmospheres. Second, we show that the atmospheric circulation acts as a global heat engine, which places strong constraints on large-scale wind speeds. Third, we develop an RC-subsiding model which extends our RC model to hot and thin atmospheres. We find that rocky planets develop large day-night temperature gradients at a ratio of wave-to-radiative timescales up to two orders of magnitude smaller than the value suggested by work on hot Jupiters. The small ratio is due to the heat engine inefficiency and asymmetry between updrafts and subsidence in convecting atmospheres. Fourth, we show, using GCM simulations, that rotation only has a strong effect on temperature structure if the atmosphere is hot or thin. Our models let us map out atmospheric scenarios for planets such as GJ 1132b, and show how thermal phase curves could constrain them. Measuring phase curves of short-period planets will require similar amounts of time on the James Webb Space Telescope as detecting molecules via transit spectroscopy, so future observations should pursue both techniques.

Atmospheric Circulations of Hot Jupiters as Planetary Heat Engines

James McDonnell Foundation postdoctoral fellowship; NASA Earth and Space Science fellowship; Heising-Simons Foundation