Dorian S. Abbot

Quantifying the seasonal and interannual variability of North American isoprene emissions using satellite observations of the formaldehyde column

JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH, VOL. 111, D12315, doi:10.1029/2005JD006689, 2006 Quantifying the seasonal and interannual variability of North American isoprene emissions using satellite observations of the formaldehyde column Paul I. Palmer, 1,2 Dorian S. Abbot, 1 Tzung-May Fu, 1 Daniel J. Jacob, 1 Kelly Chance, 3 Thomas P. Kurosu, 3 Alex Guenther, 4 Christine Wiedinmyer, 4 Jenny C. Stanton, 5 Michael J. Pilling, 5 Shelley N. Pressley, 6 Brian Lamb, 6 and Anne Louise Sumner 7 Received 20 September 2005; revised 19 December 2005; accepted 14 February 2006; published 27 June 2006. [ 1 ] Quantifying isoprene emissions using satellite observations of the formaldehyde (HCHO) columns is subject to errors involving the column retrieval and the assumed relationship between HCHO columns and isoprene emissions, taken here from the GEOS- CHEM chemical transport model. Here we use a 6-year (1996–2001) HCHO column data set from the Global Ozone Monitoring Experiment (GOME) satellite instrument to (1) quantify these errors, (2) evaluate GOME-derived isoprene emissions with in situ flux measurements and a process-based emission inventory (Model of Emissions of Gases and Aerosols from Nature, MEGAN), and (3) investigate the factors driving the seasonal and interannual variability of North American isoprene emissions. The error in the GOME HCHO column retrieval is estimated to be 40%. We use the Master Chemical Mechanism (MCM) to quantify the time-dependent HCHO production from isoprene, a- and b-pinenes, and methylbutenol and show that only emissions of isoprene are detectable by GOME. The time-dependent HCHO yield from isoprene oxidation calculated by MCM is 20–30% larger than in GEOS-CHEM. GOME-derived isoprene fluxes track the observed seasonal variation of in situ measurements at a Michigan forest site with a 30% bias. The seasonal variation of North American isoprene emissions during 2001 inferred from GOME is similar to MEGAN, with GOME emissions typically 25% higher (lower) at the beginning (end) of the growing season. GOME and MEGAN both show a maximum over the southeastern United States, but they differ in the precise location. The observed interannual variability of this maximum is 20–30%, depending on month. The MEGAN isoprene emission dependence on surface air temperature explains 75% of the month-to-month variability in GOME-derived isoprene emissions over the southeastern United States during May–September 1996–2001. Citation: Palmer, P. I., et al. (2006), Quantifying the seasonal and interannual variability of North American isoprene emissions using satellite observations of the formaldehyde column, J. Geophys. Res., 111, D12315, doi:10.1029/2005JD006689. 1. Introduction [ 2 ] Emissions of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) from the terrestrial biosphere have important implications Division of Engineering and Applied Sciences, Harvard University, Cambridge, Massachusetts, USA. Now at the School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds, UK. Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics, Cambridge, Massachu- setts, USA. National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado, USA. Department of Chemistry, University of Leeds, Leeds, UK. Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Washington State University, Pullman, Washington, USA. Battelle, Columbus, Ohio, USA. Copyright 2006 by the American Geophysical Union. 0148-0227/06/2005JD006689 for tropospheric ozone (O 3 ) [Wang and Shallcross, 2000], organic aerosols [Claeys et al., 2004], and climate change [Sanderson et al., 2003]. Local VOC emission data, representative of scales less than 1 km, are difficult to extrapolate, and consequently the magnitude and variabil- ity of these emissions is not well understood on conti- nental scales. Standard emission inventories based on ecosystem data and emission factors [Guenther et al., 2005] are poorly constrained. We have shown previously that observations of formaldehyde (HCHO) columns from the Global Ozone Monitoring Experiment (GOME) satel- lite instrument [Chance et al., 2000] provide information to estimate biogenic VOC emissions, specifically isoprene emissions, on a global scale and with resolution of the order of 100 km [Palmer et al., 2003]. We examine here the quantitative value of these data for better understand- D12315 1 of 14

STABILIZING CLOUD FEEDBACK DRAMATICALLY EXPANDS THE HABITABLE ZONE OF TIDALLY LOCKED PLANETS

The habitable zone (HZ) is the circumstellar region where a planet can sustain surface liquid water. Searching for terrestrial planets in the HZ of nearby stars is the stated goal of ongoing and planned extrasolar planet surveys. Previous estimates of the inner edge of the HZ were based on one-dimensional radiative-convective models. The most serious limitation of these models is the inability to predict cloud behavior. Here we use global climate models with sophisticated cloud schemes to show that due to a stabilizing cloud feedback, tidally locked planets can be habitable at twice the stellar flux found by previous studies. This dramatically expands the HZ and roughly doubles the frequency of habitable planets orbiting red dwarf stars. At high stellar flux, strong convection produces thick water clouds near the substellar location that greatly increase the planetary albedo and reduce surface temperatures. Higher insolation produces stronger substellar convection and therefore higher albedo, making this phenomenon a stabilizing climate feedback. Substellar clouds also effectively block outgoing radiation from the surface, reducing or even completely reversing the thermal emission contrast between dayside and nightside. The presence of substellar water clouds and the resulting clement surface conditions will therefore be detectable with the James Webb Space Telescope.

The Jormungand global climate state and implications for Neoproterozoic glaciations

[1] Geological and geochemical evidence can be interpreted as indicating strong hysteresis in global climate during the Neoproterozoic glacial events (∼630 Ma and ∼715 Ma). Standard climate theory only allows such strong hysteresis if global climate enters a fully‐glaciated “Snowball” state. However, the survival of photosynthetic, eukaryotic, marine species through these glaciations may indicate that there were large areas of open ocean. A previously‐proposed “Slushball” model for Neoproterozoic glaciations could easily explain the survival of these organisms because it has open ocean throughout the tropics, but there is only a small amount of hysteresis associated with the Slushball state. In this paper a new state of global climate, the “Jormungand” state, is proposed. In this state the ocean is very nearly globally ice‐covered, but a very small strip of the tropical ocean remains ice‐free. The low ice latitude of the Jormungand state is a consequence of the low albedo of snow‐free (bare) sea ice. If the ice latitude propagates into the subtropical desert zone, it can stabilize without collapsing to the equator because subtropical ice‐covered regions have a relatively low top‐of‐atmosphere albedo as a result of the exposure of bare sea ice and relatively lower cloud cover. Moreover, there is strong hysteresis associated with the Jormungand state as greenhouse gas levels are varied because of the high albedo contrast between regions of bare and snow covered sea ice. The Jormungand state is illustrated here in two different atmospheric global climate models and in the Budyko‐Sellers model. By offering a scenario that could explain both strong hysteresis in global climate and the survival of life, the Jormungand state represents a potential model for Neoproterozoic glaciations, although further study of this issue is needed.

Indication of Insensitivity of Planetary Weathering Behavior and Habitable Zone to Surface Land Fraction

It is likely that unambiguous habitable zone terrestrial planets of unknown water content will soon be discovered. Water content helps determine surface land fraction, which influences planetary weathering behavior. This is important because the silicate-weathering feedback determines the width of the habitable zone in space and time. Here a low-order model of weathering and climate, useful for gaining qualitative understanding, is developed to examine climate evolution for planets of various land-ocean fractions. It is pointed out that, if seafloor weathering doesnotdependdirectlyonsurfacetemperature,therecanbenoweathering-climatefeedbackonawaterworld.This would dramatically narrow the habitable zone of a waterworld. Results from our model indicate that weathering behavior does not depend strongly on land fraction for partially ocean-covered planets. This is powerful because it suggests that previous habitable zone theory is robust to changes in land fraction, as long as there is some land. Finally, a mechanism is proposed for a waterworld to prevent complete water loss during a moist greenhouse through rapid weathering of exposed continents. This process is named a “waterworld self-arrest,” and it implies that waterworlds can go through a moist greenhouse stage and end up as planets like Earth with partial ocean coverage. This work stresses the importance of surface and geologic effects, in addition to the usual incident stellar flux, for habitability.

STRONG DEPENDENCE OF THE INNER EDGE OF THE HABITABLE ZONE ON PLANETARY ROTATION RATE

Planetary rotation rate is a key parameter in determining atmospheric circulation and hence the spatial pattern of clouds. Since clouds can exert a dominant control on planetary radiation balance, rotation rate could be critical for determining the mean planetary climate. Here we investigate this idea using a three-dimensional general circulation model with a sophisticated cloud scheme. We find that slowly rotating planets (like Venus) can maintain an Earth-like climate at nearly twice the stellar flux as rapidly rotating planets (like Earth). This suggests that many exoplanets previously believed to be too hot may actually be habitable, depending on their rotation rate. The explanation for this behavior is that slowly rotating planets have a weak Coriolis force and long daytime illumination, which promotes strong convergence and convection in the substellar region. This produces a large area of optically thick clouds, which greatly increases the planetary albedo. In contrast, on rapidly rotating planets a much narrower belt of clouds form in the deep tropics, leading to a relatively low albedo. A particularly striking example of the importance of rotation rate suggested by our simulations is that a planet with modern Earth’s atmosphere, in Venus’ orbit, and with modern Venus’ (slow) rotation rate would be habitable. This would imply that if Venus went through a runaway greenhouse, it had a higher rotation rate at that time.

Sea ice, high‐latitude convection, and equable climates

[1] It is argued that deep atmospheric convection might occur during winter in ice-free high-latitude oceans, and that the surface radiative warming effects of the clouds and water vapor associated with this winter convection could keep high-latitude oceans ice-free through polar night. In such an ice-free high-latitude ocean the annual-mean SST would be much higher and the seasonal cycle would be dramatically reduced - making potential implications for equable climates manifest. The constraints that atmospheric heat transport, ocean heat transport, and CO 2 concentration place on this mechanism are established. These ideas are investigated using the NCAR column model, which has state-of-the-art atmospheric physics parameterizations, high vertical resolution, a full seasonal cycle, a thermodynamic sea ice model, and a mixed layer ocean.

THERMAL PHASES OF EARTH-LIKE PLANETS: ESTIMATING THERMAL INERTIA FROM ECCENTRICITY, OBLIQUITY, AND DIURNAL FORCING

In order to understand the climate on terrestrial planets orbiting nearby Sun-like stars, one would like to know their thermal inertia. We use a global climate model to simulate the thermal phase variations of Earth-analogs and test whether these data could distinguish between planets with different heat storage and heat transport characteristics. In particular, we consider a temperate climate with polar ice caps (like modern Earth), and a snowball state where the oceans are globally covered in ice. We first quantitatively study the periodic radiative forcing from, and climatic response to, rotation, obliquity, and eccentricity. Orbital eccentricity and seasonal changes in albedo cause variations in the global-mean absorbed flux. The responses of the two climates to these global seasons indicate that the temperate planet has 3× the bulk heat capacity of the snowball planet due to the presence of liquid water oceans. The temperate obliquity seasons are weaker than one would expect based on thermal inertia alone; this is due to cross-equatorial oceanic and atmospheric energy transport. Thermal inertia and cross-equatorial heat transport have qualitatively different effects on obliquity seasons, insofar as heat transport tends to reduce seasonal amplitude without inducing a phase lag. For an Earth-like planet, however, this effect is masked by the mixing of signals from low thermal inertia regions (sea ice and land) with that from high thermal inertia regions (oceans), which also produces a damped response with small phase lag. We then simulate thermal lightcurves as they would appear to a highcontrast imaging mission (TPF-I/Darwin). In order of importance to the present simulations, which use modern-Earth orbital parameters, the three drivers of thermal phase variations are 1) obliquity seasons, 2) diurnal cycle, and 3) global seasons. Obliquity seasons are the dominant source of phase variations for most viewing angles. A pole-on observer would measure peak-to-trough amplitudes of 13% and 47% for the temperate and snowball climates, respectively. Diurnal heating is important for equatorial observers (∼ 5% phase variations), because the obliquity effects cancel to first order from that vantage. Finally, we compare the prospects of optical vs. thermal direct imaging missions for constraining the climate on exoplanets and conclude that while zero- and one-dimensional models are best served by thermal measurements, second-order models accounting for seasons and planetary thermal inertia would require both optical and thermal observations.

Iceberg-capsize tsunamigenesis

Abstract Calving from the floating termini of outlet glaciers and ice shelves is just the beginning of an interesting chain of events that can subsequently have important impacts on human life and property. Immediately after calving, many icebergs capsize (roll over by 90°) due to the instability of their initial geometry. As icebergs melt and respond to the cumulative effects of ocean swell, they can also reorient their mass distribution by further capsize and fragmentation. These processes release gravitational potential energy and can produce impulsive large-amplitude surface-gravity waves known as tsunamis (a term derived from the Japanese language). Iceberg-capsize tsunamis in Greenland fjords can be of sufficient amplitude to threaten human life and cause destruction of property in settlements. Iceberg-capsize tsunamis may also have a role in determining why some ice shelves along the Antarctic Peninsula disintegrate ‘explosively’ in response to general environmental warming. To quantify iceberg tsunami hazards we investigate iceberg-capsize energetics, and develop a rule relating tsunami height to iceberg thickness. This rule suggests that the open-water tsunami height (located far from the iceberg and from shorelines where the height can be amplified) has an upper limit of 0.01H where H is the initial vertical dimension of the iceberg.

Resolved Snowball Earth Clouds

AbstractRecent general circulation model (GCM) simulations have challenged the idea that a snowball Earth would be nearly entirely cloudless. This is important because clouds would provide a strong warming to a high-albedo snowball Earth. GCM results suggest that clouds could lower the threshold CO2 needed to deglaciate a snowball by a factor of 10–100, enough to allow consistency with geochemical data. Here a cloud-resolving model is used to investigate cloud and convection behavior in a snowball Earth climate. The model produces convection that extends vertically to a similar temperature as modern tropical convection. This convection produces clouds that resemble stratocumulus clouds under an inversion on modern Earth, which slowly dissipate by sedimentation of cloud ice. There is enough cloud ice for the clouds to be optically thick in the longwave, and the resulting cloud radiative forcing is similar to that produced in GCMs run in snowball conditions. This result is robust to large changes in the clo...

The Steppenwolf: A Proposal for a Habitable Planet in Interstellar Space

Rogue planets have been ejected from their planetary system. We investigate the possibility that a rogue planet could maintain a liquid ocean under layers of thermally insulating water ice and frozen gas as a result of geothermal heat flux. We find that a rogue planet of Earth-like composition and age could maintain a subglacial liquid ocean if it were ≈3.5 times more massive than Earth, corresponding to ≈8 km of ice. Suppression of the melting point by contaminants, a layer of frozen gas, or a larger complement of water could significantly reduce the planetary mass that is required to maintain a liquid ocean. Such a planet could be detected from reflected solar radiation, and its thermal emission could be characterized in the far-IR if it were to pass within O(1000) AU of Earth.