Daniel E. Kaufman

Climate change impacts on southern Ross Sea phytoplankton composition, productivity, and export

The Ross Sea, a highly productive region of the Southern Ocean, is expected to experience warming during the next century along with reduced summer sea ice concentrations and shallower mixed layers. This study investigates how these climatic changes may alter phytoplankton assemblage composition, primary productivity and export. Glider measurements are used to force a one-dimensional biogeochemical model, which includes diatoms and both solitary and colonial forms of Phaeocystis antarctica. Model performance is evaluated with glider observations, and experiments are conducted using projections of physical drivers for mid- and late-21st century. These scenarios reveal a 5% increase in primary productivity by mid-century and 14% by late-century and proportional increase in carbon export, which remains approximately 18% of primary production. In addition, scenario results indicate diatom biomass increases while P. antarctica biomass decreases in the first half of the 21st century. In the second half of the century, diatom biomass remains relatively constant and P. antarctica biomass increases. Additional scenarios examining the independent contributions of expected future changes (temperature, mixed layer depth, irradiance, and surface iron inputs from melting ice) demonstrate that earlier availability of low light due to reduction of sea ice early in the growing season is the primary driver of productivity increases over the next century; shallower mixed layer depths additionally contribute to changes of assemblage composition and export. This study further demonstrates how glider data can be effectively used to facilitate model development and simulation, and inform interpretation of biogeochemical observations in the context of climate change. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Dissolved oxygen dynamics during a phytoplankton bloom in the Ross Sea polynya

Abstract The Ross Sea polynya is one of the most productive regions in the Southern Ocean. However, limited access and high spatio-temporal variability of physical and biological processes limit the use of conventional oceanographic methods to measure early season primary productivity. High-resolution observations from two Seagliders provide insights into the timing of a bloom in the southern Ross Sea polynya in December 2010. Changes in chlorophyll and oxygen concentrations are used to assess bloom dynamics. Using a ratio of dissolved oxygen to carbon, net primary production is estimated over the duration of the bloom showing a sensitive balance between net autotrophy and heterotrophy. The two gliders, observing spatially distinct regions during the same period, found net community production rates of -0.9±0.7 and 0.7±0.4 g C m-2 d-1. The difference highlights the spatial variability of biological processes and is probably caused by observing different stages of the bloom. The challenge of obtaining accurate primary productivity estimates highlights the need for increased observational efforts, particularly focusing on subsurface processes not resolved using surface or remote observations. Without an increased observational effort and the involvement of emerging technologies, it will not be possible to determine the seasonal trophic balance of the Ross Sea polynya and quantify the shelf’s importance in carbon export.