Daniel Frei

Reassessing East‐West relations: A Macroquantitative analysis of trends, premises and consequences of east‐west cooperation and conflict

Since the Geneva, Reykjavik, and Washington summits, East‐West relations are generally expected to improve rapidly. Such expectations are usually based on theoretical assumptions regarding causes and effects of detente. Eight hypotheses, most of them very central ones, are discussed and tested empirically by using time‐series data for the 1960–84 period. It appears that the move toward a strategic balance is not necessarily conducive to improved East‐West relations, nor do independent European efforts have a decisive impact on the shaping of major‐power relations. In contrast, detente appears to be divisible: The extra‐European rivalry between East and West is hardly affected by the events on the main arena. Furthermore, an improvement of relations is not a mere question of good will: cooperative initiatives by the one side are usually not responded to reciprocally by the other. Trade relations, rather than being independent stimuli promoting East‐West detente, have developed their own momentum. The inter...

The Methodology of Political risk assessment: An overview

Abstract The paper gives a broad overview of the methodology of political risk assessment. The authors especially pay attention to knowing of which methods are suitable for which problems, what types of information they are capable of providing, and how much time and money is involved in the using of the methods.

Epidemiological tracing of bovine tuberculosis in Switzerland, multilocus variable number of tandem repeat analysis of Mycobacterium bovis and Mycobacterium caprae

Background After 15 years of absence, in 2013 bovine tuberculosis (bTB), caused by Mycobacterium (M.) bovis and M. caprae, reemerged in the Swiss dairy cattle population. In order to identify the sources of infection as well as the spread of the agents, molecular-epidemiologic tracing by MIRU-VNTR analysis in combination with spoligotyping was performed. A total of 17 M. bovis and 7 M. caprae isolates were cultured from tuberculous bovine lymph nodes and analyzed with a set of 49 genetic markers by using automated capillary electrophoresis. Results The outbreak in the western part of Switzerland was caused by M. bovis spoligotype SB0120. With the exception of four single-locus variations observed in MIRU 20, the MIRU-VNTR profiles of the 17 M. bovis isolates were identical, indicating a single source of infection. M. bovis detected in one archival bovine specimen from the outbreak region showed an identical MIRU-VNTR profile, suggesting persistence of the agent in a dairy herd for nearly fifteen years. The outbreak in the eastern part of Switzerland was caused by M. caprae spoligotype SB0418. All Swiss M. caprae isolates showed the Lechtal-type MIRU-VNTR profile, described as endemic in wild ruminants and in dairy cattle in Austrian bordering regions. This suggests the agent was most likely introduced by Swiss dairy cattle summering on Austrian pastures. Conclusions The present study is the first MIRU-VNTR analysis of Swiss bTB mycobacterial isolates. The genotyping assay was found to be highly discriminating and suitable for the epidemiological tracing of further outbreaks. These findings will contribute to the development of an international MIRU-VNTR database aiming to improve bTB surveillance.

The Regulation of Warfare

The regulation of warfare as envisaged by the Hague and Geneva Conventions may be seen as a paradigm for the legal control of international conflict in general. This article suggests two complementary theoretical frameworks to explain the creation and application of norms regarding restraints in war: (a) a framework based on the theory of bargaining and (b) a framework based on the theory of integration. Each framework is described by a set of interrelated hypotheses. So far, they have the status of pre theory only.

First screening for Brachyspira hampsonii in Swiss pigs applying a new high resolution melting assay

A new High Resolution Melting (HRM) assay was developed for the rapid detection of Brachyspira (B.) hampsonii. B. hampsonii occurs in different European countries, however, until today it has not been encountered in Switzerland. Four B. hampsonii reference strains were used to develop the HRM assay: B. hampsonii clade I ATCC BAA2463 and clade II ATCC BAA2464 strain, as well as two isolated strains P280/1 from the UK and the German isolate 5369-1x/12. A conserved region of the nox gene was used to design B. hampsonii-specific primers. The HRM melting curves for the four reference strains showed reproducible difference graphs with distinct differences between the four strains based on a slight variation between the four amplicon sequences. In addition, DNA from 22 B. hampsonii strains representing four genetic B. hampsonii groups was used to validate the method. Melting temperatures in the interval between 73.1 and 74°C were obtained for all B. hampsonii strains and allow differentiating B. hampsonii from other Brachyspira species. In total 897 Swiss porcine fecal Brachyspira isolates, cultured between 2009 and 2015, were analysed by the HRM protocol. B. hampsonii was not detected among these Swiss Brachyspira isolates. In conclusion, the rapid and low-cost HRM approach allows a sensitive and specific identification of B. hampsonii.

Äußere und innere Voraussetzungen der Entspannungspolitik Eine Untersuchung zu elf ausgewählten Hypothesen

Die besondere Gestaltung der Ost-West-Beziehungen, die man seit den sechziger Jahren als „Entspannung“ bezeichnet, findet sich in ihrer Beurteilung immer heftiger umstritten. Die in der wissenschaftlichen und publizistischen Diskussion geauserten Befunde reichen von der lapidaren Feststellung „Entspannung ist tot“ bis zu Zweckoptimismus oder gar der unerschutterlichen Zuversicht. Viele begnugen sich mit der nicht weiter hinterfragten Meinung, das den Regierungen in Ost und West angesichts des Risikos einer Eskalation ihres Konflikts in den Bereich eines nuklearen Duells gar nichts anderes ubrig bleibe, als auch weiterhin und auf unabsehbare Zeit eine Politik der Entspannung zu verfolgen. Der Bandbreite dieses Streits der Meinungen entspricht auch die Fulle der Argumente, die zur Erklarung oder Deutung des tatsachlichen Geschehens in die Diskussion geworfen werden. Die Literatur uber das Thema „Entspannung“ hat daher inzwischen einen Umfang angenommen, der nurmehr mit Hilfe von Spezialbibliographien (vgl. z. B. Schwarz/Lutz 1980) noch einigermasen zu uberblicken ist. Untersucht man die Diskussion uber Entspannung und die daraus hervorgegangene Literatur etwas naher, so wird unschwer ein allen Beitragen gemeinsamer Zug erkennbar: Jeder Diskussionsbeitrag beruht im Grunde — ausgesprochen oder unausgesprochen — auf einer Theorie uber den Entspannungsprozes, d.h. auf einer Antwort auf Fragen wie: „Warum Entspannung?“ oder „Warum nicht mehr Entspannung?“ Es fallt auf, das die Antworten auf diese Fragen, also die theoretischen Uberlegungen zu den Voraussetzungen des Entspannungsprozesses, haufig eine recht einfache Struktur aufweisen.

Conflict reduction by mutual disengagement

This study attempts to discover what variables, if any, will induce opponents to cooperate. The author isolated 12 independent variables and grouped the first five together in his refined model as variable 6. The remaining variables are: worthlessness, supervision, conspicuousness, previous neutralization, absence of internal segmentation, military potential, and tradition as a neutral. Analysis was limited to bivariate relationships between the independent and dependent variables (i.e., possible outcomes). Cases tested included examples from the outbreak of World War I to the present. The author discovered that disengagement would most likely succeed in a geographically and ideologically distinct Country, one previously neutralized, that had little military value, a politically organized population, and some military capacity. The most unpromising candidate would lack clearcut ethnic borders, internal homogeneity, and political unity. Disengagement, while no panacea, offers the advantage of many opening ...