Daniel H. O'Leary

Carotid-Artery Intima and Media Thickness as a Risk Factor for Myocardial Infarction and Stroke in Older Adults

BACKGROUND The combined thickness of the intima and media of the carotid artery is associated with the prevalence of cardiovascular disease. We studied the associations between the thickness of the carotid-artery intima and media and the incidence of new myocardial infarction or stroke in persons without clinical cardiovascular disease. METHODS Noninvasive measurements of the intima and media of the common and internal carotid artery were made with high-resolution ultrasonography in 5858 subjects 65 years of age or older. Cardiovascular events (new myocardial infarction or stroke) served as outcome variables in subjects without clinical cardiovascular disease (4476 subjects) over a median follow-up period of 6.2 years. RESULTS The incidence of cardiovascular events correlated with measurements of carotid-artery intima-media thickness. The relative risk of myocardial infarction or stroke increased with intima-media thickness (P<0.001). The relative risk of myocardial infarction or stroke (adjusted for age and sex) for the quintile with the highest thickness as compared with the lowest quintile was 3.87 (95 percent confidence interval, 2.72 to 5.51). The association between cardiovascular events and intima-media thickness remained significant after adjustment for traditional risk factors, showing increasing risks for each quintile of combined intima-media thickness, from the second quintile (relative risk, 1.54; 95 percent confidence interval, 1.04 to 2.28), to the third (relative risk, 1.84; 95 percent confidence interval, 1.26 to 2.67), fourth (relative risk, 2.01; 95 percent confidence interval, 1.38 to 2.91), and fifth (relative risk, 3.15; 95 percent confidence interval, 2.19 to 4.52). The results of separate analyses of myocardial infarction and stroke paralleled those for the combined end point. CONCLUSIONS Increases in the thickness of the intima and media of the carotid artery, as measured noninvasively by ultrasonography, are directly associated with an increased risk of myocardial infarction and stroke in older adults without a history of cardiovascular disease.

The cardiovascular health study: Design and rationale

The Cardiovascular Health Study (CHS) is a population-based, longitudinal study of coronary heart disease and stroke in adults aged 65 years and older. The main objective of the study is to identify factors related to the onset and course of coronary heart disease and stroke. CHS is designed to determine the importance of conventional cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors in older adults, and to identify new risk factors in this age group, especially those that may be protective and modifiable. The study design called for enrollment of 1250 men and women in each of four communities: Forsyth County, North Carolina; Sacramento County, California; Washington County, Maryland; and Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. Eligible participants were sampled from Medicare eligibility lists in each area. Extensive physical and laboratory evaluations were performed at baseline to identify the presence and severity of CVD risk factors such as hypertension, hypercholesterolemia and glucose intolerance; subclinical disease such as carotid artery atherosclerosis, left ventricular enlargement, and transient ischemia; and clinically overt CVD. These examinations in CHS permit evaluation of CVD risk factors in older adults, particularly in groups previously under-represented in epidemiologic studies, such as women and the very old. The first of two examination cycles began in June 1989. A second comprehensive examination will be repeated three years later. Periodic interim contacts are scheduled to ascertain and verify the incidence of CVD events, the frequency of recurrent events, and the sequellae of CVD.

Coronary calcium as a predictor of coronary events in four racial or ethnic groups.

BACKGROUND In white populations, computed tomographic measurements of coronary-artery calcium predict coronary heart disease independently of traditional coronary risk factors. However, it is not known whether coronary-artery calcium predicts coronary heart disease in other racial or ethnic groups. METHODS We collected data on risk factors and performed scanning for coronary calcium in a population-based sample of 6722 men and women, of whom 38.6% were white, 27.6% were black, 21.9% were Hispanic, and 11.9% were Chinese. The study subjects had no clinical cardiovascular disease at entry and were followed for a median of 3.8 years. RESULTS There were 162 coronary events, of which 89 were major events (myocardial infarction or death from coronary heart disease). In comparison with participants with no coronary calcium, the adjusted risk of a coronary event was increased by a factor of 7.73 among participants with coronary calcium scores between 101 and 300 and by a factor of 9.67 among participants with scores above 300 (P<0.001 for both comparisons). Among the four racial and ethnic groups, a doubling of the calcium score increased the risk of a major coronary event by 15 to 35% and the risk of any coronary event by 18 to 39%. The areas under the receiver-operating-characteristic curves for the prediction of both major coronary events and any coronary event were higher when the calcium score was added to the standard risk factors. CONCLUSIONS The coronary calcium score is a strong predictor of incident coronary heart disease and provides predictive information beyond that provided by standard risk factors in four major racial and ethnic groups in the United States. No major differences among racial and ethnic groups in the predictive value of calcium scores were detected.

Clinical Correlates of White Matter Findings on Cranial Magnetic Resonance Imaging of 3301 Elderly People The Cardiovascular Health Study

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE Our aim was to identify potential risk factors for and clinical manifestations of white matter findings on cranial MRI in elderly people. METHODS Medicare eligibility lists were used to obtain a representative sample of 5888 community-dwelling people aged 65 years or older. Correlates of white matter findings were sought among 3301 participants who underwent MRI scanning and denied a history of stroke or transient ischemic attack. Participants underwent extensive standardized evaluations at baseline and on follow-up, including standard questionnaires, physical examination, multiple blood tests, electrocardiogram, pulmonary function tests, carotid sonography, and M-mode echocardiography. Neuroradiologists graded white matter findings from 0 (none) to 9 (maximal) without clinical information. RESULTS Many potential risk factors were related to the white matter grade, but in the multivariate model the factors significantly (all P < .01) and independently associated with increased grade were greater age, clinically silent stroke on MRI, higher systolic blood pressure, lower forced expiratory volume in 1 second (FEV1), and income less than

The outbreak of West Nile virus infection in the New York City area in 1999.

50,000 per year. If excluded, FEV1 was replaced in the model by female sex, history of smoking, and history of physician-diagnosed hypertension at the baseline examination. Many clinical features were correlated with the white matter grade, especially those indicating impaired cognitive and lower extremity function. CONCLUSIONS White matter findings were significantly associated with age, silent stroke, hypertension, FEV1, and income. The white matter findings may not be considered benign because they are associated with impaired cognitive and lower extremity function.

Distribution and correlates of sonographically detected carotid artery disease in the Cardiovascular Health Study. The CHS Collaborative Research Group.

BACKGROUND In late August 1999, an unusual cluster of cases of meningoencephalitis associated with muscle weakness was reported to the New York City Department of Health. The initial epidemiologic and environmental investigations suggested an arboviral cause. METHODS Active surveillance was implemented to identify patients hospitalized with viral encephalitis and meningitis. Cerebrospinal fluid, serum, and tissue specimens from patients with suspected cases underwent serologic and viral testing for evidence of arboviral infection. RESULTS Outbreak surveillance identified 59 patients who were hospitalized with West Nile virus infection in the New York City area during August and September of 1999. The median age of these patients was 71 years (range, 5 to 95). The overall attack rate of clinical West Nile virus infection was at least 6.5 cases per million population, and it increased sharply with age. Most of the patients (63 percent) had clinical signs of encephalitis; seven patients died (12 percent). Muscle weakness was documented in 27 percent of the patients and flaccid paralysis in 10 percent; in all of the latter, nerve conduction studies indicated an axonal polyneuropathy in 14 percent. An age of 75 years or older was an independent risk factor for death (relative risk adjusted for the presence or absence of diabetes mellitus, 8.5; 95 percent confidence interval, 1.2 to 59.1), as was the presence of diabetes mellitus (age-adjusted relative risk, 5.1; 95 percent confidence interval, 1.5 to 17.3). CONCLUSIONS This outbreak of West Nile meningoencephalitis in the New York City metropolitan area represents the first time this virus has been detected in the Western Hemisphere. Given the subsequent rapid spread of the virus, physicians along the eastern seaboard of the United States should consider West Nile virus infection in the differential diagnosis of encephalitis and viral meningitis during the summer months, especially in older patients and in those with muscle weakness.

Coronary artery calcification compared with carotid intima-media thickness in the prediction of cardiovascular disease incidence: the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA).

Background and Purpose: This article describes the prevalence of extracranial carotid atherosclerosis assessed by ultrasonography, its association with risk factors, and its relation to symptomatic coronary disease and stroke in men and women aged >65 years. Methods: Maximum percent stenosis, maximum common carotid artery wall thickness, and maximum internal carotid artery wall thickness were assessed using duplex ultrasound in 5,201 men and women aged >65 years in the Cardiovascular Health Study, a study of the risk factors and natural history of cardiovascular disease in the elderly. Existing coronary disease and stroke were assessed by physical examination and participant history. Results: Detectable carotid stenosis was present in 75% of men and 62% of women, although the prevalence of ≥50% stenosis was low, 7% in men and 5% in women. Maximum stenosis and maximum wall thickness measurements increased with age and were uniformly greater at all ages in men than in women (p<0.00001). Established risk factors for atherosclerosis (hypertension, smoking, diabetes) and indications of vascular disease (left ventricular hypertrophy, major electrocardiographic abnormality, bruits, and history of heart disease or stroke) related to all three carotid artery measures in the the elderly. Of the three ultrasound measures, the best correlate for a history of coronary disease was maximum internal carotid artery wall thickness. For stroke the best correlate was common carotid artery wall thickness. Multiple logistic regression models of prevalent coronary heart disease and stroke that included the ultrasound findings indicated, after adjustment for age and sex, that maximum internal wall thickness and maximum common carotid wall thickness were significant correlates of both. Maximum stenosis did not add significantly to the correlation. Conclusions: In the elderly the incidence of carotid atherosclerosis was high, although the frequency of severe disease was low. The prevalence and severity of carotid atherosclerosis continued to increase with age even in the late decades of life, and more disease was found in men than in women at all ages. Known risk factors for atherosclerosis continued to relate to carotid abnormalities in the later decades of life, both in symptomatic and asymptomatic subjects.

Comparison of Novel Risk Markers for Improvement in Cardiovascular Risk Assessment in Intermediate-Risk Individuals

BACKGROUND Coronary artery calcium (CAC) and carotid intima-media thickness (IMT) are noninvasive measures of atherosclerosis that consensus panels have recommended as possible additions to risk factor assessment for predicting the probability of cardiovascular disease (CVD) occurrence. Our objective was to assess whether maximum carotid IMT or CAC (Agatston score) is the better predictor of incident CVD. METHODS A prospective cohort study of subjects aged 45 to 84 years in 4 ethnic groups, who were initially free of CVD (n = 6698) was performed, with standardized carotid IMT and CAC measures at baseline, in 6 field centers of the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA). The main outcome measure was the risk of incident CVD events (coronary heart disease, stroke, and fatal CVD) over a maximum of 5.3 years of follow-up. RESULTS There were 222 CVD events during follow-up. Coronary artery calcium was associated more strongly than carotid IMT with the risk of incident CVD. After adjustment for each other (CAC score and IMT) and age, race, and sex [corrected], the hazard ratio of CVD increased 2.1-fold (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.8-2.5) for each 1-standard deviation (SD) increment of log-transformed CAC score, vs 1.3-fold (95% CI, 1.1-1.4) for each 1-SD increment of the maximum IMT. For coronary heart disease, the hazard ratios per 1-SD increment increased 2.5-fold (95% CI, 2.1-3.1) for CAC score and 1.2-fold (95% CI, 1.0-1.4) for IMT. A receiver operating characteristic curve analysis also suggested that CAC score was a better predictor of incident CVD than was IMT, with areas under the curve of 0.81 vs 0.78, respectively. CONCLUSION Although whether and how to clinically use bioimaging tests of subclinical atherosclerosis remains a topic of debate, this study found that CAC score is a better predictor of subsequent CVD events than carotid IMT.

Use of sonography to evaluate carotid atherosclerosis in the elderly. The Cardiovascular Health Study. CHS Collaborative Research Group.

CONTEXT Risk markers including coronary artery calcium, carotid intima-media thickness, ankle-brachial index, brachial flow-mediated dilation, high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (CRP), and family history of coronary heart disease (CHD) have been reported to improve on the Framingham Risk Score (FRS) for prediction of CHD, but there are no direct comparisons of these markers for risk prediction in a single cohort. OBJECTIVE We compared improvement in prediction of incident CHD/cardiovascular disease (CVD) of these 6 risk markers within intermediate-risk participants (FRS >5%-<20%) in the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA). DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS Of 6814 MESA participants from 6 US field centers, 1330 were intermediate risk, without diabetes mellitus, and had complete data on all 6 markers. Recruitment spanned July 2000 to September 2002, with follow-up through May 2011. Probability-weighted Cox proportional hazard models were used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs). Area under the receiver operator characteristic curve (AUC) and net reclassification improvement were used to compare incremental contributions of each marker when added to the FRS, plus race/ethnicity. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES Incident CHD defined as myocardial infarction, angina followed by revascularization, resuscitated cardiac arrest, or CHD death. Incident CVD additionally included stroke or CVD death. RESULTS After 7.6-year median follow-up (IQR, 7.3-7.8), 94 CHD and 123 CVD events occurred. Coronary artery calcium, ankle-brachial index, high-sensitivity CRP, and family history were independently associated with incident CHD in multivariable analyses (HR, 2.60 [95% CI, 1.94-3.50]; HR, 0.79 [95% CI, 0.66-0.95]; HR, 1.28 [95% CI, 1.00-1.64]; and HR, 2.18 [95% CI, 1.38-3.42], respectively). Carotid intima-media thickness and brachial flow-mediated dilation were not associated with incident CHD in multivariable analyses (HR, 1.17 [95% CI, 0.95-1.45] and HR, 0.95 [95% CI, 0.78-1.14]). Although addition of the markers individually to the FRS plus race/ethnicity improved AUC, coronary artery calcium afforded the highest increment (0.623 vs 0.784), while brachial flow-mediated dilation had the least (0.623 vs 0.639). For incident CHD, the net reclassification improvement with coronary artery calcium was 0.659, brachial flow-mediated dilation was 0.024, ankle-brachial index was 0.036, carotid intima-media thickness was 0.102, family history was 0.160 and high-sensitivity CRP was 0.079. Similar results were obtained for incident CVD. CONCLUSIONS Coronary artery calcium, ankle-brachial index, high-sensitivity CRP, and family history were independent predictors of incident CHD/CVD in intermediate-risk individuals. Coronary artery calcium provided superior discrimination and risk reclassification compared with other risk markers.

Common Carotid Intima-Media Thickness Measurements in Cardiovascular Risk Prediction: A Meta-analysis

Carotid sonography is being performed on more than 5,000 participants in the Cardiovascular Health Study, a prospective, multicenter study of cardiovascular disease in men and women aged 65 years and older. The sonographic methods used to examine and measure the extracranial carotid arteries are described. Initial validation studies were performed on 61 subjects with a mean age of 68.6 years. Analysis of within- and between-sonographer differences and between-reader differences were performed for selected variables. In general, the mean absolute differences for within- and between-sonographer comparisons were small, with even less variability between readers. Variability was less for the common carotid artery than for the internal carotid artery. These data suggest that carotid sonography is a reliable and reproducible method for use in the study of carotid atherosclerosis in population studies.