Teri A. Manolio

Finding the missing heritability of complex diseases

Genome-wide association studies have identified hundreds of genetic variants associated with complex human diseases and traits, and have provided valuable insights into their genetic architecture. Most variants identified so far confer relatively small increments in risk, and explain only a small proportion of familial clustering, leading many to question how the remaining, ‘missing’ heritability can be explained. Here we examine potential sources of missing heritability and propose research strategies, including and extending beyond current genome-wide association approaches, to illuminate the genetics of complex diseases and enhance its potential to enable effective disease prevention or treatment.

Carotid-Artery Intima and Media Thickness as a Risk Factor for Myocardial Infarction and Stroke in Older Adults

BACKGROUND The combined thickness of the intima and media of the carotid artery is associated with the prevalence of cardiovascular disease. We studied the associations between the thickness of the carotid-artery intima and media and the incidence of new myocardial infarction or stroke in persons without clinical cardiovascular disease. METHODS Noninvasive measurements of the intima and media of the common and internal carotid artery were made with high-resolution ultrasonography in 5858 subjects 65 years of age or older. Cardiovascular events (new myocardial infarction or stroke) served as outcome variables in subjects without clinical cardiovascular disease (4476 subjects) over a median follow-up period of 6.2 years. RESULTS The incidence of cardiovascular events correlated with measurements of carotid-artery intima-media thickness. The relative risk of myocardial infarction or stroke increased with intima-media thickness (P<0.001). The relative risk of myocardial infarction or stroke (adjusted for age and sex) for the quintile with the highest thickness as compared with the lowest quintile was 3.87 (95 percent confidence interval, 2.72 to 5.51). The association between cardiovascular events and intima-media thickness remained significant after adjustment for traditional risk factors, showing increasing risks for each quintile of combined intima-media thickness, from the second quintile (relative risk, 1.54; 95 percent confidence interval, 1.04 to 2.28), to the third (relative risk, 1.84; 95 percent confidence interval, 1.26 to 2.67), fourth (relative risk, 2.01; 95 percent confidence interval, 1.38 to 2.91), and fifth (relative risk, 3.15; 95 percent confidence interval, 2.19 to 4.52). The results of separate analyses of myocardial infarction and stroke paralleled those for the combined end point. CONCLUSIONS Increases in the thickness of the intima and media of the carotid artery, as measured noninvasively by ultrasonography, are directly associated with an increased risk of myocardial infarction and stroke in older adults without a history of cardiovascular disease.

The cardiovascular health study: Design and rationale

The Cardiovascular Health Study (CHS) is a population-based, longitudinal study of coronary heart disease and stroke in adults aged 65 years and older. The main objective of the study is to identify factors related to the onset and course of coronary heart disease and stroke. CHS is designed to determine the importance of conventional cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors in older adults, and to identify new risk factors in this age group, especially those that may be protective and modifiable. The study design called for enrollment of 1250 men and women in each of four communities: Forsyth County, North Carolina; Sacramento County, California; Washington County, Maryland; and Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. Eligible participants were sampled from Medicare eligibility lists in each area. Extensive physical and laboratory evaluations were performed at baseline to identify the presence and severity of CVD risk factors such as hypertension, hypercholesterolemia and glucose intolerance; subclinical disease such as carotid artery atherosclerosis, left ventricular enlargement, and transient ischemia; and clinically overt CVD. These examinations in CHS permit evaluation of CVD risk factors in older adults, particularly in groups previously under-represented in epidemiologic studies, such as women and the very old. The first of two examination cycles began in June 1989. A second comprehensive examination will be repeated three years later. Periodic interim contacts are scheduled to ascertain and verify the incidence of CVD events, the frequency of recurrent events, and the sequellae of CVD.

Potential etiologic and functional implications of genome-wide association loci for human diseases and traits

We have developed an online catalog of SNP-trait associations from published genome-wide association studies for use in investigating genomic characteristics of trait/disease-associated SNPs (TASs). Reported TASs were common [median risk allele frequency 36%, interquartile range (IQR) 21%−53%] and were associated with modest effect sizes [median odds ratio (OR) 1.33, IQR 1.20–1.61]. Among 20 genomic annotation sets, reported TASs were significantly overrepresented only in nonsynonymous sites [OR = 3.9 (2.2−7.0), p = 3.5 × 10−7] and 5kb-promoter regions [OR = 2.3 (1.5−3.6), p = 3 × 10−4] compared to SNPs randomly selected from genotyping arrays. Although 88% of TASs were intronic (45%) or intergenic (43%), TASs were not overrepresented in introns and were significantly depleted in intergenic regions [OR = 0.44 (0.34−0.58), p = 2.0 × 10−9]. Only slightly more TASs than expected by chance were predicted to be in regions under positive selection [OR = 1.3 (0.8−2.1), p = 0.2]. This new online resource, together with bioinformatic predictions of the underlying functionality at trait/disease-associated loci, is well-suited to guide future investigations of the role of common variants in complex disease etiology.

Heart Disease and Stroke Statistics—2006 Update

1. About These Statistics 2. Cardiovascular Diseases 3. Coronary Heart Disease, Acute Coronary Syndrome and Angina Pectoris 4. Stroke and Stroke in Children 5. High Blood Pressure (and End-Stage Renal Disease) 6. Congenital Cardiovascular Defects 7. Heart Failure 8. Other Cardiovascular Diseases 9. Risk Factors 10. Metabolic Syndrome 11. Nutrition 12. Quality of Care 13. Medical Procedures 14. Economic Cost of Cardiovascular Diseases 15. At-a-Glance Summary Tables 16. Glossary and Abbreviation Guide 17. Acknowledgment 18. References Appendix I: List of Statistical Fact Sheets. URL: http://www.americanheart.org/presenter.jhtml?identifier=2007 The American Heart Association works with the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s National Center for Health Statistics (CDC/NCHS), the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute (NHLBI), the National Institute of Neurological Disorders and Stroke (NINDS), and other government agencies to derive the annual statistics in this update. This section describes the most important sources we use. For more details and an alphabetical list of abbreviations, see the Glossary and Abbreviation Guide. All statistics are for the most recent year available. Prevalence, mortality and hospitalizations are computed for 2003 unless otherwise noted. Mortality as an underlying or contributing cause of death is for 2002. Economic cost estimates are for 2006. Due to late release of data, some disease mortality are not updated to 2003. Mortality for 2003 are underlying preliminary data, obtained from the NCHS publication National Vital Statistics Report: Deaths: Preliminary Data for 2003 (NVSR, 2005;53:15) and from unpublished tabulations furnished by Robert Anderson of NCHS. US and state death rates and prevalence rates are age-adjusted per 100 000 population (unless otherwise specified) using the 2000 …

The NHGRI GWAS Catalog, a curated resource of SNP-trait associations.

The National Human Genome Research Institute (NHGRI) Catalog of Published Genome-Wide Association Studies (GWAS) Catalog provides a publicly available manually curated collection of published GWAS assaying at least 100 000 single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) and all SNP-trait associations with P <1 × 10−5. The Catalog includes 1751 curated publications of 11 912 SNPs. In addition to the SNP-trait association data, the Catalog also publishes a quarterly diagram of all SNP-trait associations mapped to the SNPs’ chromosomal locations. The Catalog can be accessed via a tabular web interface, via a dynamic visualization on the human karyotype, as a downloadable tab-delimited file and as an OWL knowledge base. This article presents a number of recent improvements to the Catalog, including novel ways for users to interact with the Catalog and changes to the curation infrastructure.

Replicating genotype-phenotype associations.

What constitutes replication of a genotype–phenotype association, and how best can it be achieved?

Incidence of and Risk Factors for Atrial Fibrillation in Older Adults

BACKGROUND This study aimed to describe the incidence of atrial fibrillation (AF) among older adults during 3 years of follow-up. METHODS AND RESULTS In this cohort study, 5201 adults > or = 65 years old were examined annually on four occasions between June 1989 and May 1993. At baseline, participants answered questionnaires and underwent a detailed examination that included carotid ultrasound, pulmonary function tests, ECG, and echocardiography. Subjects with a pacemaker or AF at baseline (n=357) were excluded. New cases of AF were identified from three sources: (1) annual self-reports, (2) annual ECGs, and (3) hospital discharge diagnoses. Cox proportional-hazards models were used to assess baseline risk factors as predictors of incident AF. Among 4844 participants, 304 developed a first episode of AF during an average follow-up of 3.28 years, for an incidence of 19.2 per 1000 person-years. The onset was strongly associated with age, male sex, and the presence of clinical cardiovascular disease. For men 65 to 74 and 75 to 84 years old, the incidences were 17.6 and 42.7, respectively, and for women, 10.1 and 21.6 events per 1000 person-years. In stepwise models, the use of diuretics, a history of valvular heart disease, coronary disease, advancing age, higher levels of systolic blood pressure, height, glucose, and left atrial size were all associated with an increased risk of AF. The use of beta-blockers and high levels of alcohol use, cholesterol, and forced expiratory volume in 1 second were associated with a reduced risk of AF. CONCLUSIONS The incidence of AF in older adults may be higher than estimated by previous population studies. Left atrial size appears to be an important risk factor, and the control of blood pressure and glucose may be important in preventing the development of AF.

Clinical Correlates of White Matter Findings on Cranial Magnetic Resonance Imaging of 3301 Elderly People The Cardiovascular Health Study

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE Our aim was to identify potential risk factors for and clinical manifestations of white matter findings on cranial MRI in elderly people. METHODS Medicare eligibility lists were used to obtain a representative sample of 5888 community-dwelling people aged 65 years or older. Correlates of white matter findings were sought among 3301 participants who underwent MRI scanning and denied a history of stroke or transient ischemic attack. Participants underwent extensive standardized evaluations at baseline and on follow-up, including standard questionnaires, physical examination, multiple blood tests, electrocardiogram, pulmonary function tests, carotid sonography, and M-mode echocardiography. Neuroradiologists graded white matter findings from 0 (none) to 9 (maximal) without clinical information. RESULTS Many potential risk factors were related to the white matter grade, but in the multivariate model the factors significantly (all P < .01) and independently associated with increased grade were greater age, clinically silent stroke on MRI, higher systolic blood pressure, lower forced expiratory volume in 1 second (FEV1), and income less than

Genomewide Association Studies and Assessment of the Risk of Disease

50,000 per year. If excluded, FEV1 was replaced in the model by female sex, history of smoking, and history of physician-diagnosed hypertension at the baseline examination. Many clinical features were correlated with the white matter grade, especially those indicating impaired cognitive and lower extremity function. CONCLUSIONS White matter findings were significantly associated with age, silent stroke, hypertension, FEV1, and income. The white matter findings may not be considered benign because they are associated with impaired cognitive and lower extremity function.