Daniel Hosken

Patterns of Retail Price Variation

We examine retail price variation across a range of goods and regions of the United States. We find that the typical grocery product has a regular price and stays at that price at least 50% of the time, and that most deviations from that regular price are downward. Temporary discounts or sales, while infrequent, account for 20% to 50% of the annual variation in retail prices for most product categories. Although existing models of retail sales yield predictions consistent with some aspects of the retail pricing distributions, all of these models fail to explain other important aspects of retail pricing identified here.

Retail Gasoline Pricing: What Do We Know?

We use a data set consisting of a three year panel of prices from a sample of gasoline stations located in suburban Washington DC and a corresponding census of the regions stations to develop three new empirical findings about retail gasoline pricing. First, while average retail margins vary substantially over time (by more than 50% over the three years we analyze), the shape of the margin distribution remains relatively constant. Second, there is substantial heterogeneity in pricing behavior: stations charging very low or very high prices are more likely to maintain their pricing position than stations charging prices near the mean. Third, retail gasoline pricing is dynamic. Despite the heterogeneity in station pricing behavior, stations frequently change their relative pricing position in this distribution, sometimes dramatically. We then relate these three findings to relevant theories of retail pricing. While many models of retail pricing are consistent with some of our findings, we find that all have serious shortcomings.

The Economic Effects of the Marathon - Ashland Joint Venture: The Importance of Industry Supply Shocks and Vertical Market Structure

This study measures the effects of the Marathon/Ashland Petroleum (MAP) joint venture on rack and retail reformulated (RFG) gasoline prices in the four cities where both firms sold RFG before the joint venture. MAP was an early transaction in the recent era of petroleum mergers and resulted in large regional increases in concentration. While wholesale (rack) prices increased in the two cities experiencing the largest change in market structure in the year following the transaction, retail prices did not increase. Our results also highlight the importance of identifying the marginal source of supply in correctly identifying merger effects.

The Effect of Mergers on Consumer Prices: Evidence from Five Mergers on the Enforcement Margin

In this paper we propose a method to evaluate the effectiveness of U.S. horizontal merger policy and apply it to the study of five recently consummated consumer products mergers. We select the mergers from those that, from the public record, seem most likely to be problematic. Thus, we estimate an upper bound on the likely price effect of completed mergers. Our study employs retail scanner data and uses familiar panel data program evaluation procedures to measure price changes. Our results indicate that four of the five mergers resulted in some increases in consumer prices, while the fifth merger had little effect.

Evidence on the Accuracy of Merger Simulations

This paper evaluates the efficacy of a structural model of oligopoly used for merger review. Using premerger data, we estimate several demand systems and use a static Bertrand model to simulate the price effects of two mergers. Using pre- and postmerger data, we directly estimate the price effects. The direct estimates imply that one merger resulted in moderate price increases, while the second left prices essentially unchanged. While some simulations are similar to the directly estimated price effects, overall simulations overstate the price effects in one case and understate them in the other. Explanations for the discrepancies are explored.

Empirical Methods in Merger Analysis: Econometric Analysis of Pricing in FTC v. Staples

Abstract In 1997, the US Federal Trade Commission challenged the proposed merger of two office supply superstores, Staples and Office Depot in US District Court. Both the government and merging parties presented econometric studies examining the mergers likely impact on consumer pricing, predicting a price increase of 8.6% and 0.9% respectively. This article uses the extensive public record to provide a detailed discussion of the econometric models used in the case and to show how differences between the models led to the discrepancy between these estimates.

Did Robert Bork Understate the Competitive Impact of Mergers? Evidence from Consummated Mergers

In The Antitrust Paradox, Robert Bork viewed most mergers as either competitively neutral or efficiency enhancing. In his view, only mergers creating a dominant firm or monopoly were likely to harm consumers. Bork was especially skeptical of oligopoly concerns resulting from mergers. In this paper, we provide a critique of Bork’s views on merger policy from The Antitrust Paradox. Many of Bork’s recommendations have been implemented over time and have improved merger analysis. Bork’s proposed horizontal merger policy, however, was too permissive. In particular, the empirical record shows that mergers in oligopolistic markets can raise consumer prices.

The Price Effects of a Large Merger of Manufacturers: A Case Study of Maytag-Whirlpool

Many experts speculate that U.S. antitrust policy towards horizontal mergers has been too lenient. We estimate the price effects of Whirlpools acquisition of Maytag to provide new evidence on this debate. We compare price changes in appliance markets most affected by the merger to markets where concentration changed much less or not at all. We estimate price increases for dishwashers and relatively large price increases for clothes dryers, but no price effects for refrigerators or clothes washers. The combined firms market share fell across all four affected categories and the number of distinct appliance products fell.

Have Supermarket Mergers Raised Prices? An Event Study Analysis

Antitrust enforcement of supermarket merger activity during the late 1980s and early 1990s was less stringent than it had been before or has been since. For six announcements of supermarket acquisitions during this period, this study examines the abnormal stock returns of rival firms to determine if investors believed these acquisitions would lead to higher retail prices.These abnormal returns imply that investors expected that the average retail price change associated with these types of acquisitions ranges from a 0.12% decrease to a 0.05% increase. Thus, our results suggest that investors generally did not view these acquisitions as anticompetitive.

Do Retail Mergers Affect Competition? Evidence from Grocery Retailing

This study estimates the price effects of horizontal mergers in the U.S. grocery retailing industry. We examine fourteen regions affected by mergers including both highly concentrated and relatively unconcentrated markets. We identify price effects by comparing markets affected by mergers to unaffected markets using both difference-in-difference estimation and the synthetic control method. Our results are robust to the choice of control group and estimation technique. We find that mergers in highly concentrated markets are most frequently associated with price increases, while mergers in less concentrated markets are most often associated with price decreases.