Daniel I. Rees

Detracking America's schools: Equity at zero cost?

Schools across the country are ending the practice of grouping students based on ability, in part, because of research indicating that tracking hurts low-ability students without helping students of other ability levels. Using a nationally representative survey conducted by the National Center for Education Statistics, (NCES) we reexamine the impact of tracking on high school student achievement through the estimation of a standard education production function. This approach allows us to control for the possibility that track is correlated with factors such as class size and teacher education. In addition, we address the possibility that there are unobserved student or school characteristics that affect both achievement and track placement. Our results indicate that abolishing tracking in Americas schools would have a large positive impact on achievement for students currently in the lower tracks, but that this increase in achievement would come at the expense of students in upper-track classes.

Medical Marijuana Laws, Traffic Fatalities, and Alcohol Consumption

To date, 19 states have passed medical marijuana laws, yet very little is known about their effects. The current study examines the relationship between the legalization of medical marijuana and traffic fatalities, the leading cause of death among Americans ages 5–34. The first full year after coming into effect, legalization is associated with an 8–11 percent decrease in traffic fatalities. The impact of legalization on traffic fatalities involving alcohol is larger and estimated with more precision than its impact on traffic fatalities that do not involve alcohol. Legalization is also associated with sharp decreases in the price of marijuana and alcohol consumption, which suggests that marijuana and alcohol are substitutes. Because alternative mechanisms cannot be ruled out, the negative relationship between legalization and alcohol-related traffic fatalities does not necessarily imply that driving under the influence of marijuana is safer than driving under the influence of alcohol.

IQ, Academic Performance, Environment, and Earnings

This paper explores the effects of peers, friends, family, IQ, and academic performance, observed in the last year of high school, on earnings at ages 35 and 53. All significantly affect earnings at both ages. The effects of IQ are much smaller than asserted in, for example, The Bell Curve, and badly overstated in the absence of controls for family, wider context, or academic performance. Aspirations appear to be very important. Socialization and role models may be as well, but not ability spillovers. Feasible increases in academic performance and education can compensate for the effects of many cognitive and contextual deficits.

New evidence on the relationship between substance use and adolescent sexual behavior.

Policymakers and the public have a clear interest in encouraging teens to delay becoming sexually active or, if they are sexually active, to use birth control. Many researchers have argued that reducing substance use among teens will accomplish both of these goals, yet work in this area has failed to control for unobservables that are potentially correlated with substance use and sexual behavior. Using a variety of estimation techniques and data from National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health, we estimate the effects of marijuana and alcohol use on two outcomes: the probability of being sexually active, and the probability of having sex without contraception. Our results highlight the importance of controlling for unobservables and indicate that the link between substance use and sexual behavior is much weaker than previously suggested.

College Football Games and Crime

There is a great deal of anecdotal evidence that college football games can lead to aggressive and destructive behavior by fans. However, to date, no empirical study has attempted to document the magnitude of this phenomenon. We match daily data on offenses from the National Incident-Based Reporting System to 26 Division I-A college football programs to estimate the relationship between college football games and crime. Our results suggest that the host community registers sharp increases in assaults, vandalism, arrests for disorderly conduct, and arrests for alcohol-related offenses on game days. Upsets are associated with the largest increases in the number of expected offenses.

The Impact of Government Policies and Neighborhood Characteristics on Teenage Sexual Activity and Contraceptive Use

OBJECTIVES This study sought to examine the effects of government policies and neighborhood characteristics on adolescent female sexual behavior to better inform future public policy decisions. METHODS Using a bivariate probit model and National Survey of Family Growth data on women aged 15 through 19 years, we estimated the probabilities of their being sexually active and, if sexually active, of their using contraceptives. RESULTS Variables measuring the cost of obtaining an abortion are not good predictors of sexual activity or contraceptive use. However, the relationship between family planning availability and contraceptive use is statistically significant at conventional levels. CONCLUSIONS Policymakers seem to have little leverage with regard to influencing the decision to become sexually active, although increased access to family planning services may encourage responsible contraceptive behavior. Neighborhood context is an important determinant of adolescent female sexual behavior.

Labor market conditions and the high school dropout rate: Evidence from New York State

Abstract A number of cross-sectional studies have examined the impact of labor market conditions on the decision to drop out of school. However, results from these studies have been mixed. In this paper the authors use panel data estimation methods in order to avoid potential omitted variable problems. The results suggest a negative relationship between the unemployment rate and the proportion of a districts high school students who drop out in a given year. Educational inputs such as teacher experience and education do not seem to be reliable predictors of district dropout rates. The results underline the importance of controlling for unobservable district characteristics.

Grievance Procedure Strength and Teacher Quits

Freemans exit-voice model of unionism suggests that grievance procedure strength should be negatively related to the probability that an employee quits his or her job. In this study, which uses data on New York State public school teachers and districts from the mid-1970s, it is found that teachers with the two strongest types of grievance procedures in their contracts had a lower probability of quitting than those working under weaker grievance procedures. The author views this result as evidence that unionization can reduce quits through a “voice” effect.

The effect of adolescent virginity status on psychological well-being

Although previous research has found that sexually active teens are more likely to suffer from depression, it is not clear whether this association is causal or spurious in nature. This study uses data from the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health to examine whether virginity status affects self-esteem and depression. For males, fixed effects and instrumental variables (IV) estimates provide little evidence that sex is causally related to psychological well-being. In contrast, IV estimates indicate that sexually active female adolescents are at increased risk of exhibiting the symptoms of depression relative to their counterparts who are not sexually active. Comparing the psychological well-being of females who used contraception at last intercourse with that of virgins suggests that these effects may be ameliorated, but not eliminated, by contraceptive use.

Medical marijuana laws and suicides by gender and age.

OBJECTIVES We estimated the association between legalizing medical marijuana and suicides. METHODS We obtained state-level suicide data from the National Vital Statistics Systems Mortality Detail Files for 1990-2007. We used regression analysis to examine the association between medical marijuana legalization and suicides per 100 000 population. RESULTS After adjustment for economic conditions, state policies, and state-specific linear time trends, the association between legalizing medical marijuana and suicides was not statistically significant at the .05 level. However, legalization was associated with a 10.8% (95% confidence interval [CI] = -17.1%, -3.7%) and 9.4% (95% CI = -16.1%, -2.4%) reduction in the suicide rate of men aged 20 through 29 years and 30 through 39 years, respectively. Estimates for females were less precise and sensitive to model specification. CONCLUSIONS Suicides among men aged 20 through 39 years fell after medical marijuana legalization compared with those in states that did not legalize. The negative relationship between legalization and suicides among young men is consistent with the hypothesis that marijuana can be used to cope with stressful life events. However, this relationship may be explained by alcohol consumption. The mechanism through which legalizing medical marijuana reduces suicides among young men remains a topic for future study.