Hani Mansour

The Effects of Labor Supply Shocks on Labor Market Outcomes: Evidence from the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict

Since September 2000, as a result of mobility restrictions, the supply of Palestinian workers competing for local jobs in the West Bank has increased by about fifty percent. This paper takes advantage of this unique natural experiment to study the effects of labor supply shocks on labor market outcomes. Using quarterly information on wages and employment in each city in the West Bank, the paper analyzes the short-run adjustment of labor markets to a large inflow of workers separately from the effects of political instability. The results suggest that low-skilled wages are adversely affected by an increase in the supply of low- and high-skilled workers, while high-skilled wages are only weakly negatively related to an increase in their own supply. This is consistent with a scenario in which high-skilled workers compete for low-skilled jobs, pushing the low-skilled into unemployment. This latter hypothesis is confirmed by analyzing the effects of changes in labor supply on unemployment.

The Effects of Intrauterine Malnutrition on Birth and Fertility Outcomes: Evidence From the 1974 Bangladesh Famine

This article uses the Bangladesh famine of 1974 as a natural experiment to estimate the impact of intrauterine malnutrition on sex of the child and infant mortality. In addition, we estimate the impact of malnutrition on post-famine pregnancy outcomes. Using the 1996 Matlab Health and Socioeconomic Survey (MHSS), we find that women who were pregnant during the famine were less likely to have male children. Moreover, children who were in utero during the most severe period of the Bangladesh famine were 32 % more likely to die within one month of birth compared with their siblings who were not in utero during the famine. Finally, we estimate the impacts of the famine on subsequent pregnancy outcomes. Controlling for pre-famine fertility, we find that women who were pregnant during the famine experienced a higher number of stillbirths in the post-famine years. This increase appears to be driven by an excess number of male stillbirths.

The Effect of Prenatal Stress on Birth Weight: Evidence from the al-Aqsa Intifada

No previous study has attempted to estimate the effect of intrauterine exposure to armed conflict, a potential source of stress, on pregnancy outcomes. Drawing on data from the 2004 Palestinian Demographic and Health Survey, we examine the relationship between fatalities caused by Israeli security forces (a measure of conflict intensity) and birth weight. Our estimates suggest that first-trimester fatalities are positively related to the probability that a child weighed less than 2,500 grams at birth. This result is consistent with medical studies showing a strong negative correlation between self-reported stress during the first trimester of pregnancy and birth weight.

Who Marries Differently Aged Spouses? Ability, Education, Occupation, Earnings, and Appearance

In direct contrast to conventional wisdom and most economic models of marital age gaps, we present robust evidence that men and women who are married to differently aged spouses are negatively selected. Empirical results show lower cognitive ability, lower educational attainment, lower occupational wages, lower earnings, and less attractive appearance among those married to a differently aged spouse. These results, obtained using samples of first marriages and controlling for age of marriage, are consistent with a model in which individuals with more schooling and more upwardly mobile occupations interact more heavily with similarly aged peers and are ultimately more likely to marry similarly aged spouses.

It's Just a Game: The Super Bowl and Low Birth Weight

Previous studies have explored the effect of earthquakes and terrorist attacks on birth outcomes. These events are unexpected and obvious sources of distress, but could affect fetal health through multiple channels. Using data from the National Vital Statistics System for the period 1969–2004, we estimate the relationship between prenatal exposure to the Super Bowl and low birth weight. Although sporting events can elicit intense emotions, they do not pollute the environment or threaten viewers with direct physical harm. We find that Super Bowl exposure is associated with a small, but precisely estimated, increase in the probability of low birth weight.

The Effect of Business Cycles on Educational Attainment

This paper studies the impact of fluctuations in unemployment rates before high school graduation, at age 17, on educational attainment. We hypothesize that schooling decisions are counter-cyclical, but that the impact of higher unemployment rates varies over the ability distribution, as measured by the Armed Forces Qualifying Test (AFQT). Using data from the 1979 National Longitudinal Study of Youth (NLSY79), combined with information on national unemployment rates, we find support for this hypothesis. Specifically, we find that higher unemployment rates at age 17 increase completed years of education and the probability of college graduation for individuals in the 60th-80th quintile of the AFQT distribution. We find no evidence that higher unemployment rates are related to the probability of high school graduation.

WEIGHING THE MILITARY OPTION: THE EFFECTS OF WARTIME CONDITIONS ON INVESTMENTS IN HUMAN CAPITAL: MILITARY SERVICE AND HUMAN CAPITAL

Military service is an important vehicle through which young Americans invest in their human capital. Using internal military data, we show that county-level exposure to U.S. combat casualties during the Iraq and Afghanistan wars decreased the supply of new soldiers in that county, and changed the observable characteristics of soldiers who enlisted in that county. Using data from the American Community Survey, we find that exposure to casualties at a young age (17-18) increases the probability of dropping out from high school, and decreases the probability of attaining a college degree. The results suggest that increasing access to higher education and skill training positively impacts the human capital investments of marginal students.