Daniel Plugge

Reduced emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD): a climate change mitigation strategy on a critical track

BackgroundFollowing recent discussions, there is hope that a mechanism for reduction of emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD) will be agreed by the Parties of the UNFCCC at their 15th meeting in Copenhagen in 2009 as an eligible action to prevent climate changes and global warming in post-2012 commitment periods. Countries introducing a REDD-regime in order to generate benefits need to implement sound monitoring and reporting systems and specify the associated uncertainties. The principle of conservativeness addresses the problem of estimation errors and requests the reporting of reliable minimum estimates (RME). Here the potential to generate benefits from applying a REDD-regime is proposed with reference to sampling and non-sampling errors that influence the reliability of estimated activity data and emission factors.ResultsA framework for calculating carbon benefits by including assessment errors is developed. Theoretical, sample based considerations as well as a simulation study for five selected countries with low to high deforestation and degradation rates show that even small assessment errors (5% and less) may outweigh successful efforts to reduce deforestation and degradation.ConclusionThe generation of benefits from REDD is possible only in situations where assessment errors are carefully controlled.

Implications of sampling design and sample size for national carbon accounting systems

BackgroundCountries willing to adopt a REDD regime need to establish a national Measurement, Reporting and Verification (MRV) system that provides information on forest carbon stocks and carbon stock changes. Due to the extensive areas covered by forests the information is generally obtained by sample based surveys. Most operational sampling approaches utilize a combination of earth-observation data and in-situ field assessments as data sources.ResultsWe compared the cost-efficiency of four different sampling design alternatives (simple random sampling, regression estimators, stratified sampling, 2-phase sampling with regression estimators) that have been proposed in the scope of REDD. Three of the design alternatives provide for a combination of in-situ and earth-observation data. Under different settings of remote sensing coverage, cost per field plot, cost of remote sensing imagery, correlation between attributes quantified in remote sensing and field data, as well as population variability and the percent standard error over total survey cost was calculated. The cost-efficiency of forest carbon stock assessments is driven by the sampling design chosen. Our results indicate that the cost of remote sensing imagery is decisive for the cost-efficiency of a sampling design. The variability of the sample population impairs cost-efficiency, but does not reverse the pattern of cost-efficiency of the individual design alternatives.Conclusions, brief summary and potential implicationsOur results clearly indicate that it is important to consider cost-efficiency in the development of forest carbon stock assessments and the selection of remote sensing techniques. The development of MRV-systems for REDD need to be based on a sound optimization process that compares different data sources and sampling designs with respect to their cost-efficiency. This helps to reduce the uncertainties related with the quantification of carbon stocks and to increase the financial benefits from adopting a REDD regime.

Estimating carbon emissions from forest degradation: implications of uncertainties and area sizes for a REDD+ MRV system

Under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), the mechanism Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation (REDD) has become an important option to create ...

Reduced Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation (REDD): Why a Robust and Transparent Monitoring, Reporting and Verification (MRV) System is Mandatory

The reduction of emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD) was approved at the 16th session of the Conference of the Parties of the UNFCCC in Cancun in 2010 as an eligible action to prevent climate change and global warming in post-2012 commitment periods. REDD assigns a financial value to the carbon stored in forests. In order to generate benefits from REDD countries need to implement sound systems for monitoring, reporting and verification (MRV) of carbon stocks. The mere reporting of point estimates such as carbon stocks or carbon stock changes is not sufficient, unless the associated uncertainties are specified. Sampling and non-sampling errors influence the reliability of estimated activity data and emission factors, and thus affect the potential to generate benefits from implementing a REDD-regime. Uncertainties are addressed by the principle of conservativeness that requests the reporting of the reliable minimum estimate (RME). The RME constructs a reliability interval around a carbon stock estimate and utilizes the lower bound for reporting and the calculation of benefits. In this chapter, a framework for calculating accountable emission reductions including assessment errors is developed. Theoretical considerations as well as a simulation study for four selected countries with low to high deforestation and forest degradation rates show that even small assessment errors (5% and less) may offset successful efforts in the reduction of emissions from deforestation and forest degradation. The generation of benefits from REDD renders possible only in situations where a robust and transparent MRV-system is applied that provides a sound approach for the calculation of RMEs.

Avoiding treatment bias of REDD+ monitoring by sampling with partial replacement

BackgroundImplementing REDD+ renders the development of a measurement, reporting and verification (MRV) system necessary to monitor carbon stock changes. MRV systems generally apply a combination of remote sensing techniques and in-situ field assessments. In-situ assessments can be based on 1) permanent plots, which are assessed on all successive occasions, 2) temporary plots, which are assessed only once, and 3) a combination of both. The current study focuses on in-situ assessments and addresses the effect of treatment bias, which is introduced by managing permanent sampling plots differently than the surrounding forests. Temporary plots are not subject to treatment bias, but are associated with large sampling errors and low cost-efficiency. Sampling with partial replacement (SPR) utilizes both permanent and temporary plots.ResultsWe apply a scenario analysis with different intensities of deforestation and forest degradation to show that SPR combines cost-efficiency with the handling of treatment bias. Without treatment bias permanent plots generally provide lower sampling errors for change estimates than SPR and temporary plots, but do not provide reliable estimates, if treatment bias occurs, SPR allows for change estimates that are comparable to those provided by permanent plots, offers the flexibility to adjust sample sizes in the course of time, and allows to compare data on permanent versus temporary plots for detecting treatment bias. Equivalence of biomass or carbon stock estimates between permanent and temporary plots serves as an indication for the absence of treatment bias while differences suggest that there is evidence for treatment bias.ConclusionsSPR is a flexible tool for estimating emission factors from successive measurements. It does not entirely depend on sample plots that are installed at the first occasion but allows for the adjustment of sample sizes and placement of new plots at any occasion. This ensures that in-situ samples provide representative estimates over time. SPR offers the possibility to increase sampling intensity in areas with high degradation intensities or to establish new plots in areas where permanent plots are lost due to deforestation. SPR is also an ideal approach to mitigate concerns about treatment bias.

Wald und Forstwirtschaft

In der Vergangenheit haben sich Walder an die geringen Veranderungen des am Wuchsort herrschenden Klimas angepasst. Die gegenwartige Geschwindigkeit des Klimawandels in Verbindung mit der aktuellen Verteilung der Baumarten uberfordert jedoch die naturliche Anpassung. Vegetationszonen, Verbreitungsgebiete der Baumarten und Artzusammensetzung der Walder verschieben sich. Das Kapitel charakterisiert die Folgen, die der Klimawandel fur die Walder mit sich bringt, stellt Schadfaktoren im Einzelnen vor und schildert die Auswirkungen auf die Produktivitat. Daruber hinaus wird detailliert auf die Rolle des Waldes als Kohlenstoffspeicher eingegangen, denn Walder produzieren nicht nur den nachwachsenden Rohstoff Holz, sondern sie leisten auch viel fur die Umwelt und wirken ausgleichend auf das Klima. Auch mogliche Anpassungsoptionen werden dargestellt.