Daniel S. Hain

Mapping the (R-)Evolution of Technological Fields -- A Semantic Network Approach

The aim of this paper is to provide a framework and novel methodology geared towards mapping technological change in complex interdependent systems by using large amounts of unstructured data from various recent on- and offline sources. Combining techniques from the fields of natural language processing and network analysis, we are able to identify technological fields as overlapping communities of knowledge fragments. Over time persistence of these fragments allows to observe how these fields evolve into trajectories, which may change, split, merge and finally disappear. As empirical example we use the broad area of Technological Singularity, an umbrella term for different technologies ranging from neuroscience to machine learning and bioengineering, which are seen as main contributors to the development of artificial intelligence and human enhancement technologies. Using a socially enhanced search routine, we extract 1,398 documents for the years 2011-2013. Our analysis highlights the importance of generic interface that ease the recombination of technology to increase the pace of technological progress. While we can identify consistent technology fields in static document collections, more advanced ontology reconciliation is needed to be able to track a larger number of communities over time.

Knowing Where to Go: The Knowledge Foundation for Investments in Energy Innovation

Energy policies around the world are increasingly focussed on promoting the transition towards a more sustainable energy system. Evidence-based decision-making regarding such policies need a solid knowledge foundation. We take stock of our existing knowledge in terms of the statistics and data that forms the basis for research, policy and business decision making regarding investments in the energy sector. The available measurement techniques and data on energy production and investments inform such debates, yet we call for improvements. A number of challenges relate to a true identification of the sector, the measurement of technological change and industry dynamics, and a comprehensive overview of the investments and investors in this sector. We argue that especially activities and barriers regarding investments and investors should be thought into the knowledge foundation we need for wise decision-making. This information is important not only in a research and policy context, but also for practical reasons. Potentially, the quality and amount of statistics may create virtuous or viscous cycles of investment behaviour because investment areas only covered by weak statistical evidence may receive limited attention from investors, which may in turn render fewer incentives for producing better statistics.

Mapping the (R-)Evolution of Technological Fields

In this paper, we propose the Topical Communities and Personal Interest (TCPI) model for simultaneously modeling topics, topical communities, and users’ topical interests in microblogging data. TCPI considers different topical communities while differentiating users’ personal topical interests from those of topical communities, and learning the dependence of each user on the affiliated communities to generate content. This makes TCPI different from existing models that either do not consider the existence of multiple topical communities, or do not differentiate between personal and community’s topical interests. Our experiments on two Twitter datasets show that TCPI can effectively mine the representative topics for each topical community. We also demonstrate that TCPI significantly outperforms other state-of-the-art topic models in the modeling tweet generation task.

Local competence building and international venture capital in low-income countries: Exploring foreign high-tech investments in Kenya’s Silicon Savanna

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to shed light on the changing pattern and characteristics of international financial flows in the emerging entrepreneurial ecosystems of Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), provide a novel taxonomy to classify and analyze them, and discuss how such investments contribute to competence building and sustainable development. Design/methodology/approach In an exploratory study, the authors analyze the characteristics of international venture capital investors and the start-ups receiving funding in Kenya and map their interaction. The authors proceed by developing a novel taxonomy, classifying investors according to their main rationales (for-profit-for-impact), and start-ups according to the locus of needs and markets addressed by the start-up (local-global) and the locus of the start-ups capacity and knowledge (local-global). Findings The authors observe a new type of mainly western investors who support innovative ideas in SSA by identifying and investing in domestically developed technical innovations with the potential to address global market needs. The authors find such innovations to be mainly developed at the intersect of global and local knowledge. Originality/value The authors shed light on the – up to now – under-researched emerging phenomenon of international high-tech investments in SSA, and develop a novel taxonomy of technology investments in low-income countries, guiding further research on the conditions, impact, practical, and policy implications of this new form of finance flows.

Incremental by Design? On the Role of Incumbents in Technology Niches

In this paper, we study the evolution of governance structures in technological niches. At the case of public funded research projects and the resulting cooperation networks related to smart grid and systems in Denmark, we raise the questions which actors over time inherit a central position—associated with high influence on the development of research trajectories—in the network. We are particularly interested in what role incumbent actors, connected to the old regime of fossil based energy production, play in shaping future technological trajectories. The protected space theoretically created by such public research funding offers firms an environment to experiment in joint learning activities on emerging technologies, shielded from the selection pressure on open markets, thereby facilitating socio-technological transitions. Generally, the engagement of large incumbent actors in the development of emerging technologies, particularly in joint research projects with entrepreneurial ventures, is positively perceived, as their resource endowment enables them to stem large projects and bring them all the way to the market.

The Small, the Young and the Innovative. A Panel Data Analysis of Constraints on External Innovation Financing

This article investigates how access to external financing for innovation activities is affected by firm-specific structural, behavioral and outcome characteristics. External financing represents a critical factor in determining industrial evolution and technical change as well as firms ability to survive, grow, and engage in innovative activities. Some characteristics of firms particularly associated with innovative and entrepreneurial ventures driving technological change are said to cause information asymmetries between financiers and finance seekers, making them less likely raise necessary external capital to fund innovation projects. Yet, there is little known about how different combinations of these characteristics affects their access to external financing and how contextual factors matter. Deploying a two-stage Heckman probit model on a panel data set spanning the period 2000-2013 and covering 1,169 Danish firms, we test hypotheses derived from the literature regarding the impacts of firms structural, behavioral and outcome characteristics on the firms likelihood to get constrained in their access to external innovation finance. In line with earlier research we find that indeed the type of innovation matters for the access to external finance, but in a more nuanced way than generally portrayed. While incremental innovation activities have little negative effect on the access to external finance, radical innovation activities tend to be penalized by capital markets.The access to external finance often represents a critical factor determining a firm?s ability to survive, grow and engage in innovative activities. This study attempts to enrich existing research by investigating the effects of the recent financial crisis as well as the demand side on the access to external finance. Whereas most previous literature has used ad-hoc, cross-sectional survey data or rough innovation indicators like R&D-expenditures, we use a longitudinal data set that spans 13 years covering 1397 unique firms and has consistent questioning and methodology. We test hypotheses derived from the literature that point to characteristics of firms such as their age, size, innovativeness may impact both their demand and their likelihood of being financially constrained. Overall we do confirm that such characteristics matter to demand and constraints, however, there are also indications in the results that modify and reject such a priori assumptions. Specifically, we find evidence that the effect of innovation per se on capital demand and supply is not uniform in, but rather interdependent with other firm characteristics. We furthermore find the type of innovation to matter. While incremental innovation is usually rewarded by financers, the results for more radical or technology based innovations are more ambiguous. We attribute these findings to the fact that financiers apparently are able to cope with asymmetries of information and other reasons for credit rationing in a small, dense region where innovation activities are primarily incremental and non-science based.