Mads Borup

The sociology of expectations in science and technology

In recent years a growing number of social science studies have pointed out the significance of expectations in science and technology innovation. This special issue of Technology Analysis and Stra...

Managing long-term environmental aspects of wind turbines: a prospective case study

This paper describes a method for mapping and mitigating the negative environmental impacts of wind turbines and provides an analysis of future removal and recycling processes of offshore wind turbines. The time horizon is up to 2050. The method is process-oriented and interactive with respect to the participation of the actors involved in this area. It recognises the dynamic, uncertain and rapidly changing character of wind energy and deals systematically with the future removal and recycling of wind turbines and future wind turbine technologies. The method combines life cycle assessment and technology foresight methods and integrates the perspectives of the present and the future.

Prospective technology studies with a life cycle perspective

This article describes how life cycle assessment and technology foresight can be brought together to establish a comprehensive and multi-dimensional framework for prospective strategic analysis within new technologies and products. In two research projects, the traditions of life cycle assessment and technology foresight have been put together to analyse how the life cycle approach can help define the content and concepts of a technological system and ensure a comprehensive study with a clear focus. One project focuses on the future development of wind turbine technology; the other addresses genetically modified crops. Both projects applied the life cycle approach as a tool for mapping and scanning of the technological domain. This was also a valuable tool for designation of experts and information sources. Technology foresight methods were used to elucidate drivers of changes, potentials, possibilities and barriers for future development.

Foresight and strategy in national research councils and research programmes

This paper addresses the issue of foresight and strategy processes of national research councils and research programmes. It is based on a study of strategy processes in national research councils and programmes and the challenges faced by their strategy activities. We analysed the strategy processes of two organisations: the Danish Technical Research Council and the Danish Energy Research Programme. We analysed the mechanisms of the strategy processes and studied the actors involved. The actors’ understanding of strategy was also included in the analysis. Based on these analyses we argue that the impact of foresight exercises can be improved if we have a better understanding of the traditions and new challenges faced by theresearch councils. We also argue that a more formal use of foresight elements might improve the legitimacy and impact of the strategic considerations of research councils and research programmes.

Smart grids and households: how are household consumers represented in experimental projects?

ABSTRACT This study contributes a comparative analysis of 11 Danish smart grid experimental projects with household involvement. The analysis describes the scripts for the future smart grid interaction investigated in the examined projects, the approaches to user representation, and the project findings concerning consumers and smart grids. Three main dimensions of the scripts are identified and discussed: economic incentives, automation, and information/visualisation. The methods employed for the development of user representations are primarily technical and techno-economic. While our analysis confirms previous findings that economic rationales and automation are central elements of smart grid scripts, the analysis also shows that there is considerable variation in the details of the scripts investigated. Our findings suggest that it may be useful for future smart grid projects to be more systematic and explicit in the analysis of household user perspectives and may consider a broader set of methods in this regard.

Future-Oriented LCA

LCA is often applied for decision-making that concerns actions reaching near or far into the future. However, traditional life cycle assessment methodology must be adjusted for the prospective and change-oriented purposes, but no standardised way of doing this has emerged yet. In this chapter some challenges are described and some learnings are derived. Many of the future-oriented LCAs published so far perform relatively short-term prediction of simple comparisons. But for more long-term time horizons foresight methods can be of help. Scenarios established by qualified experts about future technological and economic developments are indispensable in future technology assessments. The uncertainties in future-oriented LCAs are to a large extent qualitative and it is important to emphasise that LCA of future technologies will provide a set of answers and not ‘the’ answer.