Daniel Santabárbara

What Explains the Low Profitability of Chinese Banks

This paper analyzes empirically what explains the low profitability of Chinese banks for the period 1997-2004. We find that better capitalized banks tend to be more profitable. The same is true for banks with a relatively larger share of deposits and for more X-efficient banks. In addition, a less concentrated banking system increases bank profitability, which basically reflects that the four state-owned commercial banks -China’s largest banks- have been the main drag for system’s profitability. We find the same negative influence for China’s development banks (so called Policy Banks), which are fully state-owned. Instead, more market oriented banks, such as joint-stock commercial banks, tend to be more profitable, which again points to the influence of government intervention in explaining bank performance in China. These findings should not come as a surprise for a banking system which has long been functioning as a mechanism for transferring huge savings to meet public policy goals.

China's Banking Reform: An Assessment of its Evolution and Possible Impact

The Chinese banking system, characterized by massive government intervention, poor asset quality and low capitalization, has started a reform process based on three main pillars: (i) bank restructuring, through the cleaning-up of non-performing loans and public capital injections, particularly in the four largest state-owned banks; (ii) financial liberalization, with the gradual flexibilization of quantity and price controls, the opening-up to foreign competition and cautious steps toward capital account liberalization; and (iii) strengthened financial regulation and supervision, coupled with efforts to improve corporate governance and transparency. Although the reform is still ongoing, our preliminary assessment indicates that changes are needed for the reform to be fully successful. Asset quality has improved, particularly in the recapitalized banks, but there is a high risk of a new build-up of non performing loans. Capitalization has increased in the largest banks, as a consequence of the government capital injections, but it generally remains low and profitability has fallen even further. China’s huge financing needs, to maintain high economic growth, and its commitment to fully open up its banking system to foreign competition urgently require a more comprehensive and time-bound strategy, with a long-term vision of the desired structure of the Chinese banking system. Bank recapitalization should be completed immediately, not only to ensure bank soundness, but also to increase profitability, which could be affected negatively as competition increases with full financial liberalization. Bank recapitalization, however, needs to be accompanied by a radical improvement in corporate governance, which would clearly be facilitated by a change in the property structure.

Does China Have an Impact on Foreign Direct Investment to Latin America

We analyze empirically whether the emergence of China as a large recipient of FDI has affected the amount of FDI received by Latin American countries. For the longest time span possible given data availability (from 1984 to 2001), we do not find a substitution from Latin American inward FDI to China, when other relevant factors are taken into account. However, concentrating on the last few years (from 1995 to 2001), when FDI boomed worldwide and negotiations for China?s WTO membership accelerated, the ?Chinese? effect becomes highly significant. Assessing the impact country by country, China?s inward FDI appears to have hampered that of Mexico and Colombia.

Growth Beyond Imbalances. Sustainable Growth Rates and Output Gap Reassessment

‘The Great Recession’ was preceded by a prolonged period of high growth accompanied by low and stable inflation, the so called ‘Great Moderation’. During that period, potential growth estimates were trending upwards and output gaps remained small. However, other imbalances were progressively accumulating, eventually bringing about the worst crisis in decades. Standard potential growth estimates, which consider inflation as the only indicator of macroeconomic imbalances, along with the stability of inflation in that period, therefore provided misleading signals to policymakers. This paper introduces a methodology to obtain sustainable growth rates, as an alternative measure to potential growth. Sustainable growth is defined as the output growth that does not generate or widen macroeconomic imbalances, identified through a wide set of domestic and external indicators. This allow us to reassess the behavior of output gaps in the US, the UK, Spain, Germany and China both in ‘the Great Moderation’ period and during ‘the Great Recession’. In countries with large imbalances, sustainable growth rates are more stable than potential growth resulting in output gaps that were substantially larger in the period prior to the crisis.

Does the Chinese banking system benefit from foreign investors

We find empirical evidence that the Chinese banking system has benefited from the entry of foreign investors through higher profitability and increased efficiency of the banking system. Foreign participation, which consists of a minority stake in a Chinese bank (in contrast to the typical pattern in emerging countries), appears to be most effective when the foreign bank acts as a strategic investor. Purely financial investors contribute little, if anything, to bank performance.

China's Economic Growth and Rebalancing

In this paper we provide an overview of the growth model in China and its prospects, taking a medium-run to long-run perspective. Our main conclusions are as follows. First, the still prevailing producer-biased model of managed capitalism in China tends to engender, as an inherent byproduct, serious imbalances which cannot be unwound without a fundamental overhaul of the model itself. Second, given the lack of a critical mass of economic reforms thus far, imbalances may (re-)escalate once global and domestic economic conditions normalise. Third, the fundamental factors underpinning growth in China are likely to remain supportive, at least over the medium run. Although this could help mitigate the economic costs of imbalances for some time to come, it could also reduce the incentives for policymakers to enact much needed reforms. Fourth, delayed policy action and the persistence of the model of growth cum imbalances would increase the risk of China getting caught in the middle-income trap in the long run. Greater political will to redirect China’s growth model towards a more sustainable path is therefore needed.

Is China Climbing Up the Quality Ladder

There is an ongoing debate in the literature about the quality content of Chinese exports and to what extent China poses a threat to the market positions of advanced economies. While China’s export structure is very similar to that of the advanced world, its export unit values are well below the level of developed economies. Building on the assumption that unit values reflect quality, the prevailing view of the literature is that China exports low quality varieties of the same products as its advanced competitors. This paper challenges this view by relaxing the assumption that unit values reflect quality. We derive the quality of Chinese exports to the European Union by estimating disaggregated demand functions from a discrete choice model. The paper has three major findings. First, China’s share of the European Union market is larger than would be justified only by its low average prices, implying that the quality of Chinese exports is high compared to many competitors. Second, China has gained quality relative to other competitors since 1995, indicating that China is climbing up the quality ladder. Finally, our analysis of the supply side determinants reveals that the relatively high quality of Chinese exports is related to processing trade and the increasing role of global production networks in China.

Do the Rich (Really) Consume Higher-Quality Goods? Evidence from International Trade Data

Using average import prices (unit values) as proxies for quality, a large body of the international trade literature finds both theoretical and empirical support for the positive relationship between importer income and quality of imports. Several authors, however, argue that the empirical evidence of the link between income and product quality might be spurious, since import prices could be affected by other factors than product quality. This paper takes into account this issue with a new theoretical and empirical approach. Building on Khandelwal’s (2010) discrete choice model approach, where quality is inferred by quantitative market shares as well as unit values, we develop a model that allows for willingness to pay for quality to vary with income. We empirically validate the theoretical relationship between importer income and product quality by using the Eurostat’s COMEXT database, which collects customs data reported by EU countries at 8-digit disaggregation. Our estimations support the positive link between consumer income and product quality, which is also robust across sectors.

Modelling Interest Payments for Macroeconomic Assessment

In this paper we present a methodology designed to estimate the future path of the interest payments of central government. The basic idea is to represent in a compact way the joint dynamics of debt liabilities and interest payments as a function of four elements: the initial outstanding amounts of debt, the expected primary funding needs, the expected yield curves and the expected issuance strategy to be followed by the government. The procedure is amenable to scenario-based simulation and produces a detailed representation of the debt term structure. We provide results for the period 2015-2025.

Understanding the Weakness in Global Trade - What is the New Normal?

Global trade has been exceptionally weak over the past four years. While global trade grew at approximately twice the rate of GDP prior to the Great Recession, the ratio of global trade to GDP growth has declined to about unity since 2012. This paper assesses to what extent the change in the relationship between global trade and global economic activity is a temporary phenomenon or constitutes a lasting change. It finds that global trade growth has been primarily dampened by two factors. First, compositional factors, including geographical shifts in economic activity and changes in the composition of aggregate demand, have weighed on the sensitivity of trade to economic activity. Second, structural developments, such as waning growth in global value chains, a rise in non-tariff protectionist measures and a declining marginal impact of financial deepening, are dampening the support from factors that boosted global trade in the past. Notwithstanding the particularly pronounced weakness in 2015 that is assessed to be mostly a temporary phenomenon owing to a number of country-specific adverse shocks, the upside potential for trade over the medium term appears to be limited. The JEL Classification: F10, F13, F14, F15