Ignacio Hernando

Price setting in the euro area : some stylised facts from individual producer price data

This paper documents producer price setting in 6 countries of the euro area: Germany, France, Italy, Spain, Belgium and Portugal. It collects evidence from available studies on each of those countries and also provides new evidence. These studies use monthly producer price data. The following five stylised facts emerge consistently across countries. First, producer prices change infrequently: each month around 21% of prices change. Second, there is substantial cross-sector heterogeneity in the frequency of price changes: prices change very often in the energy sector, less often in food and intermediate goods and least often in non-durable non- food and durable goods. Third, countries have a similar ranking of industries in terms of frequency of price changes. Fourth, there is no evidence of downward nominal rigidity: price changes are for about 45% decreases and 55% increases. Fifth, price changes are sizeable compared to the inflation rate. The paper also examines the factors driving producer price changes. It finds that costs structure, competition, seasonality, inflation and attractive pricing all play a role in driving producer price changes. In addition producer prices tend to be more flexible than consumer prices.

The Pricing Behaviour of Firms in the Euro Area: New Survey Evidence

This study investigates the pricing behaviour of firms in the euro area on the basis of surveys conducted by nine Eurosystem national central banks. Overall, more than 11,000 firms participated in the survey. The results are very robust across countries. Firms operate in monopolistically competitive markets, where prices are mostly set following mark-up rules and where price discrimination is a common practice. Our evidence suggests that both time- and state-dependent pricing strategies are applied by firms in the euro area: around one-third of the companies follow mainly time-dependent pricing rules while two-thirds use pricing rules with some element of statedependence. Although the majority of firms take into account a wide range of information, including past and expected economic developments, about one-third adopts a purely backward-looking behaviour. The pattern of results lends support to the recent wave of estimations of hybrid versions of the New Keynesian Phillips Curve. Price stickiness arises both at the stage when firms review their prices and again when they actually change prices. The most relevant factors underlying price rigidity are customer relationships – as expressed in the theories about explicit and implicit contracts – and thus, are mainly found at the price changing (second) stage of the price adjustment process. Finally, we provide evidence that firms adjust prices asymmetrically in response to shocks, depending on the direction of the adjustment and the source of the shock: while cost shocks have a greater impact when prices have to be raised than when they have to be reduced, reductions in demand are more likely to induce a price change than increases in demand.

Determinants of domestic and cross-border bank acquisitions in the European Union.

This paper analyzes the determinants of bank acquisitions both within and across countries in the EU-25 over the period 1997-2004. The findings of this paper are broadly in line with those of the academic literature on the subject, which are mainly based on the US experience. Our results suggest poorly managed EU-25 banks (high cost to income) are more likely to be acquired by other EU-25 banks, in the same country. Nevertheless, this underperformance of target banks does hold for cross border bank acquisitions only if compared to the median of the market. Larger banks are more likely to be acquired by other banks in the same country. The probability of being acquired by another bank in the same market is larger for banks that are quoted in the stock market, which is consistent with the disciplinary character of listing in the stock markets. Finally, banks operating in more concentrated markets are less likely to be acquired by other banks operating within the same country but are more likely to be acquired by banks in other EU-25 countries.

Do European Primarily Internet Banks Show Scale and Experience Efficiencies

Empirical evidence shows that Internet banks worldwide have underperformed newly chartered traditional banks mainly because of their higher overhead costs. European banks have not been an exception in this regard. This paper analyses, for the first time in Europe, whether this is a temporary phenomenon and whether Internet banks may generate scale economies in excess of those available to traditional banks. Also do they (and their customers) accumulate experience with this new business model, allowing them to perform as well or even better than their peers, the traditional banks? To this end, we have generally followed the same analytical framework and methodology used by DeYoung (2001, 2002, 2005) for Internet banks in the USA although the limitations in the availability of data, as well as the existence of different regulatory frameworks and market conditions, particularly in the retail segment, in the 15 European Union countries have required some modifications to the methodology. The empirical analysis confirms that, as is the case for US banks, European Internet banks show technologically based scale economies, while no conclusive evidence exists of technology based learning economies. As Internet banks get larger, the profitability gap with traditional banks shrinks. To the extent that Internet banks are profitable, European authorities may encourage a larger number of consumers to use this delivery channel, by tackling consumers security concerns. This would allow Internet banks to capture more of the potential scale efficiencies implied in our estimations.

Competition and Price Adjustment in the Euro Area

This paper explores the role of a number of factors in explaining the heterogeneity in the degree of price stickiness across industries, on the basis of the information provided by surveys on pricing behavior conducted in nine euro area countries. The main focus is placed on the influence of competition on the degree of price flexibility. Our results suggest that the price setting strategies of the most competitive firms give them a greater capacity to react to shocks and make, in practice, for greater flexibility in their prices. The direct influence of market competition on price flexibility is corroborated by a cross-country cross-industry econometric analysis based on the information provided by surveys. This analysis also shows that the cost structure and demand conditions help to explain the degree of price flexibility. Finally, it suggests that countries in which product market regulation is more relevant are characterized by less price flexibility.

The role of the financial system in the growth–inflation link: the OECD experience

The main contribution of this paper is to jointly estimate the effects of financial development and inflation on growth. We aim to exploit both the cross-section and the time-series dimension of the data on inflation, growth and some banking and stock market indicators over the period 1961-1993 for a sample of OECD countries. Overall, the results indicate, first, that the long-run costs of inflation are not explained by policies of financial repression, and second, that if inflation affects growth through its interaction with financial market conditions, this is not the only (nor the most important) channel.

Is the Internet Delivery Channel Changing Banks' Performance? The Case of Spanish Banks

In spite of the conspicuous use of the Internet as a delivery channel, there is a relative dearth of empirical studies that provide a quantitative analysis of the impact of the Internet on banks´ financial performance. This paper attempts to fill this gap by identifying and estimating the impact of the adoption of a transactional web site on financial performance using a sample of 72 commercial banks operating in Spain over the period 1994-2002. The impact on banks´ performance of transactional web adoption takes time to appear. The adoption of the Internet as a delivery channel involves a gradual reduction in overhead expenses (particularly, staff, marketing and IT). This effect is statistically significant after one and a half years after adoption. The cost reduction translates into an improvement in banks´ profitability, which becomes significant after one and a half years in terms of ROA and after three years in terms of ROE. The paper also concludes that the Internet is being used as a complement to, rather than a substitute for, physical branches.

Firm Behaviour and Financial Pressure: Evidence from Spanish Panel Data

This paper examines responses by firms in Spain to the experience of financial pressure. Using panel data methods applied to a large company panel, a number of aspects of corporate behaviour and the response of each to financial pressure are examined. We consider fixed investment, inventories, employment - distinguishing both permanent and temporary contract employees - and dividend policies. Our results include finding significant effects of financial pressure from borrowing costs on each outcome, particularly investment and employment. The effects on temporary employment are also found to be larger and work through more quickly than on permanent employment.

Labour Demand, Flexible Contracts and Financial Factors: Firm-Level Evidence from Spain

We estimate models of labour demand for a panel of 3,400 Spanish manufacturing firms over the period 1985-2001. We examine the roles of fixed-term contracts, financial factors and a policy reform in 1997 affecting permanent contracts by lowering payroll taxes and dismissal costs. Compared with permanent employment, the demand for flexible labour displays: (i) greater sensitivity to financial factors; (ii) greater cyclical sensitivity; (iii) a larger average wage elasticity; and (iv) less inertia. Our analysis of the 1997 policy reform suggests that a 5 percentage point reduction in the payroll tax is associated with an 8% increase in permanent labour demand. Copyright (c) Bank of England, 2007.

Growth, inflation and the exchange rate regime

Abstract According to the Balassa-Samuelson effect, growth and inflation are positively correlated in economies with pegged currencies. This paper shows that the costs of inflation on long-term growth are underestimated in samples that include countries and periods with fixed exchange rate regimes.