Daniel T. McCoy

Mixed‐phase cloud physics and Southern Ocean cloud feedback in climate models

Increasing optical depth poleward of 45° is a robust response to warming in global climate models. Much of this cloud optical depth increase has been hypothesized to be due to transitions from ice-dominated to liquid-dominated mixed-phase cloud. In this study, the importance of liquid-ice partitioning for the optical depth feedback is quantified for 19 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 models. All models show a monotonic partitioning of ice and liquid as a function of temperature, but the temperature at which ice and liquid are equally mixed (the glaciation temperature) varies by as much as 40 K across models. Models that have a higher glaciation temperature are found to have a smaller climatological liquid water path (LWP) and condensed water path and experience a larger increase in LWP as the climate warms. The ice-liquid partitioning curve of each model may be used to calculate the response of LWP to warming. It is found that the repartitioning between ice and liquid in a warming climate contributes at least 20% to 80% of the increase in LWP as the climate warms, depending on model. Intermodel differences in the climatological partitioning between ice and liquid are estimated to contribute at least 20% to the intermodel spread in the high-latitude LWP response in the mixed-phase region poleward of 45°S. It is hypothesized that a more thorough evaluation and constraint of global climate model mixed-phase cloud parameterizations and validation of the total condensate and ice-liquid apportionment against observations will yield a substantial reduction in model uncertainty in the high-latitude cloud response to warming.

Natural aerosols explain seasonal and spatial patterns of Southern Ocean cloud albedo

Sulfate and organic mass in sea spray explain more than half of the variability in Southern Ocean cloud droplet concentration. Atmospheric aerosols, suspended solid and liquid particles, act as nucleation sites for cloud drop formation, affecting clouds and cloud properties—ultimately influencing the cloud dynamics, lifetime, water path, and areal extent that determine the reflectivity (albedo) of clouds. The concentration Nd of droplets in clouds that influences planetary albedo is sensitive to the availability of aerosol particles on which the droplets form. Natural aerosol concentrations affect not only cloud properties themselves but also modulate the sensitivity of clouds to changes in anthropogenic aerosols. It is shown that modeled natural aerosols, principally marine biogenic primary and secondary aerosol sources, explain more than half of the spatiotemporal variability in satellite-observed Nd. Enhanced Nd is spatially correlated with regions of high chlorophyll a, and the spatiotemporal variability in Nd is found to be driven primarily by high concentrations of sulfate aerosol at lower Southern Ocean latitudes (35o to 45oS) and by organic matter in sea spray aerosol at higher latitudes (45o to 55oS). Biogenic sources are estimated to increase the summertime mean reflected solar radiation in excess of 10 W m–2 over parts of the Southern Ocean, which is comparable to the annual mean increases expected from anthropogenic aerosols over heavily polluted regions of the Northern Hemisphere.

On the relationships among cloud cover, mixed-phase partitioning, and planetary albedo in GCMs

In this study, it is shown that CMIP5 global climate models (GCMs) that convert supercooled water to ice at relatively warm temperatures tend to have a greater mean-state cloud fraction and more negative cloud feedback in the middle and high latitude Southern Hemisphere. We investigate possible reasons for these relationships by analyzing the mixed-phase parameterizations in 26 GCMs. The atmospheric temperature where ice and liquid are equally prevalent (T5050) is used to characterize the mixed-phase parameterization in each GCM. Liquid clouds have a higher albedo than ice clouds, so, all else being equal, models with more supercooled liquid water would also have a higher planetary albedo. The lower cloud fraction in these models compensates the higher cloud reflectivity and results in clouds that reflect shortwave radiation (SW) in reasonable agreement with observations, but gives clouds that are too bright and too few. The temperature at which supercooled liquid can remain unfrozen is strongly anti-correlated with cloud fraction in the climate mean state across the model ensemble, but we know of no robust physical mechanism to explain this behavior, especially because this anti-correlation extends through the subtropics. A set of perturbed physics simulations with the Community Atmospheric Model Version 4 (CAM4) shows that, if its temperature-dependent phase partitioning is varied and the critical relative humidity for cloud formation in each model run is also tuned to bring reflected SW into agreement with observations, then cloud fraction increases and liquid water path (LWP) decreases with T5050, as in the CMIP5 ensemble.

Observational evidence for a negative shortwave cloud feedback in middle to high latitudes

Exploiting the observed robust relationships between temperature and optical depth in extratropical clouds, we calculate the shortwave cloud feedback from historical data, by regressing observed and modeled cloud property histograms onto local temperature in middle to high southern latitudes. In this region, all CMIP5 models and observational data sets predict a negative cloud feedback, mainly driven by optical thickening. Between 45° and 60°S, the mean observed shortwave feedback (−0.91 ± 0.82 W m−2 K−1, relative to local rather than global mean warming) is very close to the multimodel mean feedback in RCP8.5 (−0.98 W m−2 K−1), despite differences in the meridional structure. In models, historical temperature-cloud property relationships reliably predict the forced RCP8.5 response. Because simple theory predicts this optical thickening with warming, and cloud amount changes are relatively small, we conclude that the shortwave cloud feedback is very likely negative in the real world at middle to high latitudes.

Observed Southern Ocean Cloud Properties and Shortwave Reflection. Part I: Calculation of SW Flux from Observed Cloud Properties*

AbstractThe sensitivity of the reflection of shortwave radiation over the Southern Ocean to the cloud properties there is estimated using observations from a suite of passive and active satellite instruments in combination with radiative transfer modeling. A composite cloud property observational data description is constructed that consistently incorporates mean cloud liquid water content, ice water content, liquid and ice particle radius information, vertical structure, vertical overlap, and spatial aggregation of cloud water as measured by optical depth versus cloud-top pressure histograms. The observational datasets used are Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) effective radius filtered to mitigate solar zenith angle bias, the Multiangle Imaging Spectroradiometer (MISR) cloud-top height–optical depth (CTH–OD) histogram, the liquid water path from the University of Wisconsin dataset, and ice cloud properties from CloudSat. This cloud database is used to compute reflected shortwave radi...

The global aerosol-cloud first indirect effect estimated using MODIS, MERRA, and AeroCom

Aerosol-cloud interactions (ACI) represent a significant source of forcing uncertainty in global climate models (GCMs). Estimates of radiative forcing due to ACI in Fifth Assessment Report range fr ...

Observations of a substantial cloud aerosol indirect effect during the 2014–2015 Bárðarbunga‐Veiðivötn fissure eruption in Iceland

The Barðarbunga-Veiðivotn fissure eruption lasted from 31 August 2014 to 28 February 2015, during which its sulfur emissions dwarfed anthropogenic emissions from Europe. This natural experiment offers an excellent opportunity to investigate the aerosol indirect effect and the effect of effusive volcanic eruptions on climate. During the eruption cloud droplet effective radius (re) over the region surrounding Iceland was at the lowest value in the 14 year Moderate Imaging Spectroradiometer data record during September and October 2014. The change in reflected solar radiation due to increased cloud reflectivity during September and October is estimated to exceed 2 W m−2 over the region surrounding Iceland, with increases of 1 W m−2 extending as far south as the Acores. The strength of the aerosol indirect effect diagnosed here reaffirms the ability of volcanic aerosols to affect cloud properties and ultimately the planetary albedo.

The Change in Low Cloud Cover in a Warmed Climate Inferred from AIRS, MODIS, and ERA-Interim

AbstractDecreases in subtropical low cloud cover (LCC) occur in climate model simulations of global warming. In this study 8-day-averaged observations from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) spanning 2002–14 are combined with European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) interim reanalysis to compute the dependence of the observed variability of LCC on various predictor variables. Large-scale thermodynamic and dynamic predictors of LCC are selected based on insight from large-eddy simulations (LESs) and observational analysis. It is found that increased estimated inversion strength (EIS) is associated with increased LCC. Drying of the free troposphere is associated with decreased LCC. Decreased LCC accompanies subsidence in regions of relatively low EIS; the opposite is found in regions of high EIS. Finally, it is found that increasing sea surface temperature (SST) leads to a decrease in LCC. These results are in keeping with ...

Rheological complexity in simple chain models.

Dynamical properties of short freely jointed and freely rotating chains are studied using molecular dynamics simulations. These results are combined with those of previous studies, and the degree of rheological complexity of the two models is assessed. New results are based on an improved analysis procedure of the rotational relaxation of the second Legendre polynomials of the end-to-end vector in terms of the Kohlrausch-Williams-Watts (KWW) function. Increased accuracy permits the variation of the KWW stretching exponent beta to be tracked over a wide range of state points. The smoothness of beta as a function of packing fraction eta is a testimony both to the accuracy of the analytical methods and the appropriateness of (eta(0)-eta) as a measure of the distance to the ideal glass transition at eta(0). Relatively direct comparison is made with experiment by viewing beta as a function of the KWW relaxation time tau(KWW). The simulation results are found to be typical of small molecular glass formers. Several manifestations of rheological complexity are considered. First, the proportionality of alpha-relaxation times is explored by the comparison of translational to rotational motion (i.e., the Debye-Stokes-Einstein relation), of motion on different length scales (i.e., the Stokes-Einstein relation), and of rotational motion at intermediate times to that at long time. Second, the range of time-temperature superposition master curve behavior is assessed. Third, the variation of beta across state points is tracked. Although no particulate model of a liquid is rigorously rheologically simple, we find freely jointed chains closely approximated this idealization, while freely rotating chains display distinctly complex dynamical features.

Remote Sensing of Droplet Number Concentration in Warm Clouds: A Review of the Current State of Knowledge and Perspectives

Abstract The cloud droplet number concentration (N d) is of central interest to improve the understanding of cloud physics and for quantifying the effective radiative forcing by aerosol‐cloud interactions. Current standard satellite retrievals do not operationally provide N d, but it can be inferred from retrievals of cloud optical depth (τ c) cloud droplet effective radius (r e) and cloud top temperature. This review summarizes issues with this approach and quantifies uncertainties. A total relative uncertainty of 78% is inferred for pixel‐level retrievals for relatively homogeneous, optically thick and unobscured stratiform clouds with favorable viewing geometry. The uncertainty is even greater if these conditions are not met. For averages over 1° ×1° regions the uncertainty is reduced to 54% assuming random errors for instrument uncertainties. In contrast, the few evaluation studies against reference in situ observations suggest much better accuracy with little variability in the bias. More such studies are required for a better error characterization. N d uncertainty is dominated by errors in r e, and therefore, improvements in r e retrievals would greatly improve the quality of the N d retrievals. Recommendations are made for how this might be achieved. Some existing N d data sets are compared and discussed, and best practices for the use of N d data from current passive instruments (e.g., filtering criteria) are recommended. Emerging alternative N d estimates are also considered. First, new ideas to use additional information from existing and upcoming spaceborne instruments are discussed, and second, approaches using high‐quality ground‐based observations are examined.