Daniela Arsenovic

Contemporary problems in studying population of Vojvodina Province

This paper identifies nine contemporary problems that hamper the population research in Vojvodina Province (northern part of Republic of Serbia) at the beginning of the twenty-first century. These problems are: postponement of census to 2002, changes of the definition of permanent population, different definitions in available data of current statistics, changes of the definition of the urban settlement term, changes in the total number of settlements, decreased number of available data of current statistics, absence of the bulletin of current statistics, absence of population register and absence of regional institution for population studies. That implies that collected data in the censuses are often not comparable due to slight changes in methodology, changes in state borders.

Temperature-related Mortality in Belgrade in the Period 1888–2008

The paper uses air temperature and crude death rate data from Belgrade in the period from 1888 to 2008, in order to show expected correlation. Basic statistical analysis demonstrates statistically significant correlation values between these parameters. The starting assumption was that people in earlier times were more sensitive to extreme cold temperatures, particularly in the winter season. Statistical results confirm previous mentioned assumptionparticularly in the period before the First World War.Further analysis showed that in the last twenty years, air temperatures and death rates have opposite correlation outcomes. Statistical analysis points out that, in the last twenty years, death rates are increasing more rapidly in the summer season, due to increasing frequencies of extreme air temperature events.

Seasonality of Marriages in the Sajkaska Region (North Serbia), 1869 to 2011

This article studies monthly distribution of marriages in Sajkaska region (North Serbia) for the period 1869 to 2011. The data were derived from 64,175 marriages that are found in marriage registers. For the purpose of the analysis, the entire period is divided into seven smaller periods. The main finding of this article is that seasonality of marriage changed along with the system of production. Also, adherence of religion played an important role in the past. At the beginning of the period of our analysis, the region was inhabited by families practicing an inefficient extensive agriculture, and seasonality of marriage was highly present: in only two months (November and October), more than a half of all marriages were concluded. In the second part of the twentieth century, the share of agricultural population decreased and the seasonal pattern of marriage changed.

Heat wave risk assessment and mapping in urban areas: case study for a midsized Central European city, Novi Sad (Serbia)

Risk assessment and mapping methodologies for heat waves as frequently occurring hazards in central and southeastern Europe were applied in this study, and the impact of heat waves on the mortality of urban populations was determined as part of the assessment. The methodology for conducting the heat wave risk assessment is based on European Commission’s Guidelines for Risk Assessment and Mapping. The Novi Sad (Serbia) urban area was studied during summer 2015, which was one of the hottest summers in the last few decades. In situ air temperature measurements from urban stations and mortality of urban populations were used. Nocturnal urban heat island (UHI) intensity values between the various built-up zones and natural surrounding areas were used for the hazard level calculation. Temperature data from 9 p.m. to 5 a.m. were used because during the night, the UHI intensity reached its maximum values. The average daily number of deaths by LCZs was used to define the impact level of the vulnerability index. Calculations for both hazard levels were completed during two intensive heat waves (in July and August 2015) when it was expected that there may be a high level of risk. The results and maps show that the urban area is complex, and the heat wave risk on the population is not uniform. The most densely built-up areas (LCZs 2, 5 and 6) have very high or high risk values that are influenced by a higher rate of mortality. The obtained results and maps can be used by local authorities to prevent and mitigate climate-related hazards, for medical institutions as well as urban planners and for ancillary local, regional or national services. According to these results, the local authorities could define hot spots where they can place medical and rescue teams and install points with water supplies, etc.