Daniela Fecht

Aircraft noise and cardiovascular disease near Heathrow airport in London: small area study

Objective To investigate the association of aircraft noise with risk of stroke, coronary heart disease, and cardiovascular disease in the general population. Design Small area study. Setting 12 London boroughs and nine districts west of London exposed to aircraft noise related to Heathrow airport in London. Population About 3.6 million residents living near Heathrow airport. Risks for hospital admissions were assessed in 12 110 census output areas (average population about 300 inhabitants) and risks for mortality in 2378 super output areas (about 1500 inhabitants). Main outcome measures Risk of hospital admissions for, and mortality from, stroke, coronary heart disease, and cardiovascular disease, 2001-05. Results Hospital admissions showed statistically significant linear trends (P<0.001 to P<0.05) of increasing risk with higher levels of both daytime (average A weighted equivalent noise 7 am to 11 pm, LAeq,16h) and night time (11 pm to 7 am, Lnight) aircraft noise. When areas experiencing the highest levels of daytime aircraft noise were compared with those experiencing the lowest levels (>63 dB v ≤51 dB), the relative risk of hospital admissions for stroke was 1.24 (95% confidence interval 1.08 to 1.43), for coronary heart disease was 1.21 (1.12 to 1.31), and for cardiovascular disease was 1.14 (1.08 to 1.20) adjusted for age, sex, ethnicity, deprivation, and a smoking proxy (lung cancer mortality) using a Poisson regression model including a random effect term to account for residual heterogeneity. Corresponding relative risks for mortality were of similar magnitude, although with wider confidence limits. Admissions for coronary heart disease and cardiovascular disease were particularly affected by adjustment for South Asian ethnicity, which needs to be considered in interpretation. All results were robust to adjustment for particulate matter (PM10) air pollution, and road traffic noise, possible for London boroughs (population about 2.6 million). We could not distinguish between the effects of daytime or night time noise as these measures were highly correlated. Conclusion High levels of aircraft noise were associated with increased risks of stroke, coronary heart disease, and cardiovascular disease for both hospital admissions and mortality in areas near Heathrow airport in London. As well as the possibility of causal associations, alternative explanations such as residual confounding and potential for ecological bias should be considered.

Maximising the effect of combination HIV prevention through prioritisation of the people and places in greatest need: a modelling study

BACKGROUND Epidemiological data show substantial variation in the risk of HIV infection between communities within African countries. We hypothesised that focusing appropriate interventions on geographies and key populations at high risk of HIV infection could improve the effect of investments in the HIV response. METHODS With use of Kenya as a case study, we developed a mathematical model that described the spatiotemporal evolution of the HIV epidemic and that incorporated the demographic, behavioural, and programmatic differences across subnational units. Modelled interventions (male circumcision, behaviour change communication, early antiretoviral therapy, and pre-exposure prophylaxis) could be provided to different population groups according to their risk behaviours or their location. For a given national budget, we compared the effect of a uniform intervention strategy, in which the same complement of interventions is provided across the country, with a focused strategy that tailors the set of interventions and amount of resources allocated to the local epidemiological conditions. FINDINGS A uniformly distributed combination of HIV prevention interventions could reduce the total number of new HIV infections by 40% during a 15-year period. With no additional spending, this effect could be increased by 14% during the 15 years-almost 100,000 extra infections, and result in 33% fewer new HIV infections occurring every year by the end of the period if the focused approach is used to tailor resource allocation to reflect patterns in local epidemiology. The cumulative difference in new infections during the 15-year projection period depends on total budget and costs of interventions, and could be as great as 150,000 (a cumulative difference as great as 22%) under different assumptions about the unit costs of intervention. INTERPRETATION The focused approach achieves greater effect than the uniform approach despite exactly the same investment. Through prioritisation of the people and locations at greatest risk of infection, and adaption of the interventions to reflect the local epidemiological context, the focused approach could substantially increase the efficiency and effectiveness of investments in HIV prevention. FUNDING The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and UNAIDS.

Road traffic noise is associated with increased cardiovascular morbidity and mortality and all-cause mortality in London.

Aims Road traffic noise has been associated with hypertension but evidence for the long-term effects on hospital admissions and mortality is limited. We examined the effects of long-term exposure to road traffic noise on hospital admissions and mortality in the general population. Methods and results The study population consisted of 8.6 million inhabitants of London, one of Europes largest cities. We assessed small-area-level associations of day- (7:00–22:59) and nighttime (23:00–06:59) road traffic noise with cardiovascular hospital admissions and all-cause and cardiovascular mortality in all adults (≥25 years) and elderly (≥75 years) through Poisson regression models. We adjusted models for age, sex, area-level socioeconomic deprivation, ethnicity, smoking, air pollution, and neighbourhood spatial structure. Median daytime exposure to road traffic noise was 55.6 dB. Daytime road traffic noise increased the risk of hospital admission for stroke with relative risk (RR) 1.05 [95% confidence interval (CI): 1.02–1.09] in adults, and 1.09 (95% CI: 1.04–1.14) in the elderly in areas >60 vs. <55 dB. Nighttime noise was associated with stroke admissions only among the elderly. Daytime noise was significantly associated with all-cause mortality in adults [RR 1.04 (95% CI: 1.00–1.07) in areas >60 vs. <55 dB]. Positive but non-significant associations were seen with mortality for cardiovascular and ischaemic heart disease, and stroke. Results were similar for the elderly. Conclusions Long-term exposure to road traffic noise was associated with small increased risks of all-cause mortality and cardiovascular mortality and morbidity in the general population, particularly for stroke in the elderly.

Environmental inequity in England: Small area associations between socio-economic status and environmental pollution

Recent studies have suggested that more deprived people tend to live in areas characterised by higher levels of environmental pollution. If generally true, these environmental inequities may combine to cause adverse effects on health and also exacerbate problems of confounding in epidemiological studies. Previous studies of environmental inequity have nevertheless indicated considerable complexity in the associations involved, which merit further investigation using more detailed data and more advanced analytical methods. This study investigates the ways in which environmental inequity in England varies in relation to: (a) different environmental pollutants (measured in different ways); (b) different aspects of socio-economic status; and (c) different geographical scales and contexts (urban vs. rural). Associations were analysed between the Index of Multiple Deprivation (IMD2004) and its domains and five sets of environmental pollutants (relating to road traffic, industry, electro-magnetic frequency radiation, disinfection by-products in drinking water and radon), measured in terms of proximity, emission intensity and environmental concentration. Associations were assessed using bivariate and multivariate correlation, and by comparing the highest and lowest quintiles of deprivation using Students t-test and Hotellings T2. Associations are generally weak (R(2) < 0.10), and vary depending on the specific measures used. Strongest associations occur with what can be regarded as contingent components of deprivation (e.g. crime, living environment, health) rather than causative factors such as income, employment or education. Associations also become stronger with increasing level of spatial aggregation. Overall, the results suggest that any triple jeopardy for health, and problems of confounding, associated with environmental inequities are likely to be limited.

Development of an open-source road traffic noise model for exposure assessment

This paper describes the development of a model for assessing TRAffic Noise EXposure (TRANEX) in an open-source geographic information system. Instead of using proprietary software we developed our own model for two main reasons: 1) so that the treatment of source geometry, traffic information (flows/speeds/spatially varying diurnal traffic profiles) and receptors matched as closely as possible to that of the air pollution modelling being undertaken in the TRAFFIC project, and 2) to optimize model performance for practical reasons of needing to implement a noise model with detailed source geometry, over a large geographical area, to produce noise estimates at up to several million address locations, with limited computing resources. To evaluate TRANEX, noise estimates were compared with noise measurements made in the British cities of Leicester and Norwich. High correlation was seen between modelled and measured LAeq,1hr (Norwich: r?=?0.85, p?=?.000; Leicester: r?=?0.95, p?=?.000) with average model errors of 3.1?dB. TRANEX was used to estimate noise exposures (LAeq,1hr, LAeq,16hr, Lnight) for the resident population of London (2003-2010). Results suggest that 1.03 million (12%) people are exposed to daytime road traffic noise levels???65?dB(A) and 1.63 million (19%) people are exposed to night-time road traffic noise levels???55?dB(A). Differences in noise levels between 2010 and 2003 were on average relatively small: 0.25?dB (standard deviation: 0.89) and 0.26?dB (standard deviation: 0.87) for LAeq,16hr and Lnight. Display Omitted Adaptation of the Calculation of Road Traffic Noise method for exposure assessment.Freely available open-source software (R with PostgreSQL and GRASS GIS).Model estimates compared well to noise measurements (r: ~0.85-0.95).Noise level exposures modelled for 8.61 million London residents (2003-2010).Over 1 million residents exposed to high daytime and night-time noise levels.

Spatial and temporal associations of road traffic noise and air pollution in London: Implications for epidemiological studies

Road traffic gives rise to noise and air pollution exposures, both of which are associated with adverse health effects especially for cardiovascular disease, but mechanisms may differ. Understanding the variability in correlations between these pollutants is essential to understand better their separate and joint effects on human health. We explored associations between modelled noise and air pollutants using different spatial units and area characteristics in London in 2003-2010. We modelled annual average exposures to road traffic noise (LAeq,24h, Lden, LAeq,16h, Lnight) for ~190,000 postcode centroids in London using the UK Calculation of Road Traffic Noise (CRTN) method. We used a dispersion model (KCLurban) to model nitrogen dioxide, nitrogen oxide, ozone, total and the traffic-only component of particulate matter ≤2.5μm and ≤10μm. We analysed noise and air pollution correlations at the postcode level (~50 people), postcodes stratified by London Boroughs (~240,000 people), neighbourhoods (Lower layer Super Output Areas) (~1600 people), 1km grid squares, air pollution tertiles, 50m, 100m and 200m in distance from major roads and by deprivation tertiles. Across all London postcodes, we observed overall moderate correlations between modelled noise and air pollution that were stable over time (Spearmans rho range: |0.34-0.55|). Correlations, however, varied considerably depending on the spatial unit: largest ranges were seen in neighbourhoods and 1km grid squares (both Spearmans rho range: |0.01-0.87|) and was less for Boroughs (Spearmans rho range: |0.21-0.78|). There was little difference in correlations between exposure tertiles, distance from road or deprivation tertiles. Associations between noise and air pollution at the relevant geographical unit of analysis need to be carefully considered in any epidemiological analysis, in particular in complex urban areas. Low correlations near roads, however, suggest that independent effects of road noise and traffic-related air pollution can be reliably determined within London.

Associations between air pollution and socioeconomic characteristics, ethnicity and age profile of neighbourhoods in England and the Netherlands

Air pollution levels are generally believed to be higher in deprived areas but associations are complex especially between sensitive population subgroups. We explore air pollution inequalities at national, regional and city level in England and the Netherlands comparing particulate matter (PM10) and nitrogen dioxide (NO2) concentrations and publicly available population characteristics (deprivation, ethnicity, proportion of children and elderly). We saw higher concentrations in the most deprived 20% of neighbourhoods in England (1.5 μg/m(3) higher PM10 and 4.4 μg/m(3) NO2). Concentrations in both countries were higher in neighbourhoods with >20% non-White (England: 3.0 μg/m(3) higher PM10 and 10.1 μg/m(3) NO2; the Netherlands: 1.1 μg/m(3) higher PM10 and 4.5 μg/m(3) NO2) after adjustment for urbanisation and other variables. Associations for some areas differed from the national results. Air pollution inequalities were mainly an urban problem suggesting measures to reduce environmental air pollution inequality should include a focus on city transport.

Trends and inequalities in cardiovascular disease mortality across 7932 English electoral wards, 1982–2006: Bayesian spatial analysis

Background Cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality has more than halved in England since the 1980s, but there are few data on small-area trends. We estimated CVD mortality by ward in 5-year intervals between 1982 and 2006, and examined trends in relation to starting mortality, region and community deprivation. Methods We analysed CVD death rates using a Bayesian spatial technique for all 7932 English electoral wards in consecutive 5-year intervals between 1982 and 2006, separately for men and women aged 30–64 years and ≥65 years. Results Age-standardized CVD mortality declined in the majority of wards, but increased in 186 wards for women aged ≥65 years. The decline was larger where starting mortality had been higher. When grouped by deprivation quintile, absolute inequality between most- and least-deprived wards narrowed over time in those aged 30–64 years, but increased in older adults; relative inequalities worsened in all four age–sex groups. Wards with high CVD mortality in 2002–06 fell into two groups: those in and around large metropolitan cities in northern England that started with high mortality in 1982–86 and could not ‘catch up’, despite impressive declines, and those that started with average or low mortality in the 1980s but ‘fell behind’ because of small mortality reductions. Conclusions Improving population health and reducing health inequalities should be treated as related policy and measurement goals. Ongoing analysis of mortality by small area is essential to monitor local effects on health and health inequalities of the public health and healthcare systems.

Associations between Green Space and Health in English Cities: An Ecological, Cross- Sectional Study

Green space has been identified as a modifiable feature of the urban environment and associations with physiological and psychological health have been reported at the local level. This study aims to assess whether these associations between health and green space are transferable to a larger scale, with English cities as the unit of analysis. We used an ecological, cross-sectional study design. We classified satellite-based land cover data to quantify green space coverage for the 50 largest cities in England. We assessed associations between city green space coverage with risk of death from all causes, cardiovascular disease, lung cancer and suicide between 2002 and 2009 using Poisson regression with random effect. After adjustment for age, income deprivation and air pollution, we found that at the city level the risk of death from all causes and a priori selected causes, for men and women, did not significantly differ between the greenest and least green cities. These findings suggest that the local health effects of urban green space observed at the neighbourhood level in some studies do not transfer to the city level. Further work is needed to establish how urban residents interact with local green space, in order to ascertain the most relevant measures of green space.

Air pollution and cardiovascular mortality with over 25years follow-up: A combined analysis of two British cohorts.

Background Adverse effects of air pollution on cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality are well established. There are comparatively fewer studies in Europe, and in the UK particularly, than in North America. We examined associations in two British cohorts with > 25 years of follow-up. Methods Annual average NO2, SO2 and black smoke (BS) air pollution exposure estimates for 1991 were obtained from land use regression models using contemporaneous monitoring data. From the European Study of Cohorts and Air Pollution (ESCAPE), air pollution estimates in 2010–11 were obtained for NO2, NOx, PM10, PMcoarse and PM2.5. The exposure estimates were assigned to place of residence 1989 for participants in a national birth cohort born in 1946, the MRC National Study of Health and Development (NSHD), and an adult multi-ethnic London cohort, Southall and Brent Revisited (SABRE) recruited 1988–91. The combined median follow-up was 26 years. Single-pollutant competing risk models were employed, adjusting for individual risk factors. Results Elevated non-significant hazard ratios for CVD mortality were seen with 1991 BS and SO2 and with ESCAPE PM10 and PM2.5 in fully adjusted linear models. Per 10 μg/m3 increase HRs were 1.11 [95% CI: 0.76–1.61] for BS, 1.05 [95% CI: 0.91–1.22] for SO2, 1.16 [95% CI: 0.70–1.92] for PM10 and 1.30 [95% CI: 0.39–4.34] for PM2.5, with largest effects seen in the fourth quartile of BS and PM2.5 compared to the first with HR 1.24 [95% CI: 0.91–1.61] and 1.21 [95% CI: 0.88–1.66] respectively. There were no consistent associations with other ESCAPE pollutants, or with 1991 NO2. Modelling using Cox regression led to similar results. Conclusion Our results support a detrimental long-term effect for air pollutants on cardiovascular mortality.