Daniela Federici

On exports and economic growth: the case of Italy

The export-led growth hypothesis for the Italian economy (1960-98) is tested through a VAR model with four macroeconomic variables: an index of the GDP of the rest of the world; the Italian real exchange rate; Italian real exports; and the Italian real GDP. Our results provide clear empirical support for the hypothesis. They also suggest that the Kaldorian approach is very useful in analysing short-run as well as long-run growth and fluctuations of an open economy such as Italy.

Migrant Remittances and Inequality in Central-Eastern Europe

The impact of remittance flows on growth and income distribution has attracted a great deal of attention, but the theoretical and empirical literature on the relationship between remittances and economic development is far from clear. Although there is wide consensus that foreign remittances can help the receiving households to increase income, consumption and capabilities to cope with socioeconomic shocks, there has been little quantitative research on impacts of remittances on household welfare and poverty. Our paper seeks to fill some of these gaps proposing an empirical analysis of the role of remittances as a tool for reducing inequality and covering households against poverty and social exclusion risks. The empirical analysis focuses on four Eastern European Countries: Slovenia, Poland, the Czech Republic and Hungary, and is based on the EU‐SILC (European Union Statistics on Income and Living Conditions) 2005 data‐set providing for each household information as to the received inter‐household cash transfers and among which regular cash support from households in other countries (i.e. remittances) are included. The results show that remittances are statistically significant in terms of poverty reduction even if their effects are generally smaller than those of welfare transfers. Furthermore, the impact of remittances and welfare transfers differ across the countries considered.

Technological Adoption with Imperfect Markets in the Italian Economy

The last twenty years have seen a marked slowdown of the Italian productivity growth rate. The literature has underlined the role of international factors, such as globalization and adoption of the euro. In this paper we emphasize the role and dynamics of capital accumulation investigating the impact of the introduction of information technology on capital and production in the Italian economy and the extent to which that is being affected by skills in the labour force.The model is specified and estimated as continuous-time general disequilibrium framework. It presents original features: it analyzes the effects of the introduction of the ICT technology on the Italian economy not in a partial equilibrium context of a single market but from a macro point of view where input markets interact; it does not assume that these markets instantaneously clear but rather that there are imperfections and frictions; it does not impose the condition that the economy necessarily converges to a steady state. The model behaves quite well in replicating the dynamics of the Italian economy. It also shows however that there remains some structural inefficiency that worsened in recent years. In fact, our main finding shows that there exists a permanent gap between “optimal” and actual output which increased in the latter part of the sample period. While a fraction of this gap can be attributed to unavoidable (market and non market) adjustment costs some is associated to efficiency losses.

A two-country NATREX model for the euro/dollar

This paper develops a NATREX (NATural Real EXchange rate) model for two large economies, the Eurozone and the United States, which are fully specified and allowed to interact. The theoretical framework, grounded on dynamic disequilibrium modelling approach in continuous time, provides the basis for empirical estimation. The model is estimated in its structural form as a simultaneous nonlinear differential equations system for the 1975-2003 period. The estimated parameters are then used to derive the simulated Euro/USD NATREX series in- and out-of-sample that offers the benchmark against which the misalignements of the actual real exchange rate are measured.

Chaos and the Exchange Rate

Chaotic exchange rate models are structural models built in discrete time (difference equations), and show that with orthodox assumptions (PPP, interest parity, etc) and introducing plausible nonlinearities in the dynamic equations, it is possible to obtain a model capable of giving rise to chaotic motion. However, none of these models is estimated, and the conclusions are based on simulations: the empirical validity of these models is not tested. In this paper, a continuous time (the exchange rate is obviously a continuous variable) exchange rate model is built as a non-linear set of three differential equations and its theoretical properties (steady state, stability, etc,) analysed. The model is then econometrically estimated in continuous time with Italian data and examined for the possible presence of chaotic motion. This paper also shows that the continuous time estimation of economic models built as systems of nonlinear differential equations is a very powerful tool in the hands of the profession.

Endogenous Growth in an Open Economy and the Real Exchange Rate

This paper is a step in the direction of a larger research project aimed at determining the long run equilibrium value of the euro/dollar real exchange rate. Given this value, one could then give a precise meaning to the notion of undervaluation or overvaluation of the euro, and calculate its misalignment. The problem however arises of how to assess the reliability of such misalignment calculations. In our opinion, we must have a benchmark (namely a period in which we exactly know from outside sources the misalignment itself), against which we can test the validity of the model underlying our calculations. This of course is not (yet) possible for the euro, so that all the calculations of the misalignment of the euro that have been made can only be compared with one another, without knowing which is the good one. Hence, before building a model to be applied to the euro/dollar, we tested our ideas incorporating them in a basic model to be applied to the lira/dollar in a period in which we do know the actual misalignment of the lira from outside sources.

The euro/dollar equilibrium real exchange rate: A continuous time approach

This paper analyses and compares different empirical approaches to the euro/dollar real equilibrium exchange rate. We first survey the alternative approaches present in the literature. Then we focus on the NATural Real EXchange rate and discuss the distinction between reduced form equations and structural estimation methods. Finally, we introduce the continuous time approach and illustrate a two-country model which is specified and estimated in continuous time. The simulated euro/dollar real equilibrium level provides a yardstick against which the misalignment of the actual real exchange rate is evaluated.

Elasticity of substitution and the stagnation of Italian productivity

ABSTACT The aim of this paper is to investigate the roots of the stagnation in the Italian total factor productivity (TFP). The analysis focuses on the specific pattern of technical progress in determining the dynamics of the TFP. This analysis cannot be done with Cobb-Douglas technology, but requires the employment of a constant elasticity of substitution (CES) production function that allows distinguishing between the direction and the bias of technical progress. We employ a CES specification embodying both labor- and capital-augmenting technical change, with a σ less than 1. We obtain three main results. (1) There seems to have been a structural break around the mid-1990s in the direction and bias of technological change; (2) The first half of the sample features a labor-augmenting technical change and a capital bias; and (3) In the second part of the sample, both these characteristics seem to disappear, and the evolution of factor endowments assumes a key role. This fact may be seen as one of the potential causes of the stagnation in Italian productivity.

The entrepreneurial engagement of Italian university students: some insights from a population-based survey

ABSTRACT Start-ups founded by university students and graduates play a substantial role in bringing new knowledge to the market and in employment creation, a role that appears to be even more important than that played by the typical technology transfer activities carried out by universities. We use a population-based approach to explore entrepreneurship among 61,115 graduate alumni of 64 Italian universities. In order to assess the potential supply of highly educated entrepreneurs, we develop a novel empirical approach to analyse engagement in entrepreneurship, based on the idea that entrepreneurship is a process that begins with intention and ends in action. We find that the share of intentional entrepreneurs, among recent cohorts of graduates in Italy, is large in comparison to the small share of actual entrepreneurs detected five years after graduation. We discuss which barriers may deter intentional entrepreneurs from being engaged in entrepreneurship and how universities can trigger the entrepreneurial process and close the gap between entrepreneurial intentions and action.

ELASTICITY OF SUBSTITUTION AND TECHNICAL PROGRESS: IS THERE A MISSPECIFICATION PROBLEM?

In Saltari et al. (2012, 2013) we estimated a dynamic model of the Italian economy. The main result of those papers is that the weakness of the Italian economy in the last two decades is due to the total factor productivity slowdown. In those models the information and communication technology (ICT) capital stock plays a key role in boosting the efficiency of the traditional capital, and hence of the whole economy. The other key parameter to explain the Italian productivity decline is the elasticity of substitution. Recent literature provides estimates of the elasticity of substitution well below 1 -- thus rejecting the traditional Cobb-Douglas production function -- though there is no particular value on which consensus converges. In our opinion, however, these estimates are affected by a theoretical specification problem. More generally, the technological parameters are long run in nature but the estimates are based on short-run data. Our aim is to look more deeply into the estimation procedure of the technological parameters. The standard estimation results present a common feature, a combination of a high R-squared and serially correlated residuals, pointing towards a spurious regression bias. In our opinion this bias is generated by a misspecification issue: the standard estimation approach is static in nature since do not incorporate frictions and rigidities. Our modelling strategy takes into account, though implicitly, adjustment costs without leaving out the optimization hypothesis. Although we cannot in general say that this framework gets rid of the serial correlation problem, the statistics for our model do show that residuals are not serially correlated.