Daniela Magalhães Prates

The new IMF approach to capital account management and its blind spots: lessons from Brazil and South Korea

As emerging economies experience a boom in capital inflows, governments are increasingly concerned about their downsides. Even the IMF (International Monetary Fund), long a stalwart proponent of financial liberalization, has engaged in a new debate on capital flow management. Drawing lessons from empirical case studies on Brazil and South Korea, this paper finds that the new IMF framework remains insufficient in two main aspects. First, by defining ‘capital flow management measures’ (CFMs) as a temporary instrument embedded in an overall strategy of financial opening, the organization insists on the general advantages of financial liberalization, which poses serious limits to emerging economies’ policy space. Second, the Fund keeps on stressing a separation of prudential financial regulation, which should be permanent, and temporary CFMs. Yet, the case studies presented here show that, especially for emerging markets with rather open and sophisticated domestic financial markets, both types of measures are interdependent and overlapping. Additionally, we demonstrate the relevance of a third type of regulation, lying on foreign exchange (FX) derivatives instruments, which may also be required to effectively manage foreign investors’ portfolio reallocations and their impact.

A alta recente dos preços das commodities

The recent rise of commodities prices. This article suggests some explanations for the steady rise of the commodities prices since 2002. Firstly, it analyses the long and medium term trends of these prices. Secondly, it explores the determinants of the recent rise, which are the macroeconomic conditions of the international economic, the high growth rate of China, and supply shocks that affect the production of some agriculture commodities.

As assimetrias do sistema monetário e financeiro internacional

Este artigo pretende avancar na compreensao das causas da maior vulne-rabilidade dos paises “emergentes” as crises financeiras nos anos 90 a partir de umaabordagem heterodoxa. Argumenta-se que as assimetrias do sistema monetario efinanceiro internacional contemporâneo contribuem para explicar essa maior vul-nerabilidade, bem como a tendencia ao endividamento em moeda estrangeira e adolarizacao, fatores subjacentes a recorrencia de crises gemeas — cambiais e banca-rias — nesses paises.

O Brasil e a crise financeira global: avaliando os canais de transmissão nas contas externas

In this paper we analyze some impacts of the current global financial crisis on Brazilian external accounts. Financial and trade transmission mechanisms are examined in detail in order to access new potential external vulnerabilities. We argue that external accounts performance depends on the interaction between external factors, which have been more relevant, and structural characteristics of the economy. We conclude with policy recommendations.

Keynes at the periphery: Currency hierarchy and challenges for economic policy in emerging economies

ABSTRACT While the post Keynesian literature offers a rather clear concept for growth-oriented policies, it is necessary to adapt them for peripheral emerging economies. We base our analysis of an appropriate Keynesian policy mix for these countries on the concept of currency hierarchy, where the currencies of peripheral emerging economies have a lower liquidity premium than the currencies of advanced economies. The international asymmetry related to the currency hierarchy, amplified by financial globalization, imposes major constraints to the adoption of Keynesian policies for these economies. Under these conditions, we argue that domestic economic policy coordination should lay a major focus on a low policy rate and, especially, a competitive exchange rate for obtaining, at least, a balanced current account, in order to prevent capital flows boom-bust-cycles with subsequent financial crises. We conclude that it is a rather ambitious and long-term goal to climb up the currency hierarchy, especially under the current condition of financial globalization.

A gestão macroeconômica do governo Dilma (2011 e 2012)

The article identifies and analyzes the performance of three phases of the management of macroeconomic policy during the first two years of Dilma Rousseffs administration (2011 and 2012). The first, comprising the first semester of 2011, is characterized by a restrictive monetary and fiscal policy, in the intent of producing economic downturn and controlling a inflation. The second period was largely conditioned by the eurozone crisis. The third, comprising the second semester of 2012, was characterized by the deepening of the economic downturn.

Investimentos estrangeiros nos sistemas financeiros latino-americanos: os casos da Argentina, do Brasil e do México

Desde o retorno dos fluxos de capitais voluntarios para a America Latina nos anos 1990 ocorreu a intensificacao dos investimentos estrangeiros nos mercados financeiros locais, os quais assumiram, notadamente, as formas de fluxos de portfolio e de investimento direto mediante a aquisicao de participacao acionaria nas instituicoes financeiras domesticas. Argentina, Brasil e Mexico foram os tres paises que mais absorveram esses fluxos destinados a regiao. O objetivo deste artigo e analisar os efeitos desses investimentos sobre os sistemas financeiros domesticos desses tres paises latino-americanos, que, longe de serem homogeneos, se diferenciaram em funcao do grau de abertura financeira e da gestao macroeconomica.

A diplomacia do Yuan Fraco

O presente trabalho analisa as conexoes entre a estrategia chinesa de desenvolvimento de longo prazo e as politicas de gestao da taxa de câmbio e dos fluxos de capitais. Argumenta-se que as segundas estao subordinadas as primeiras. Mais do que isso, o novo regime cambial implementado em 2005 e um bom exemplo de como as autoridades chinesas administram tensoes contraditorias entre as pressoes politicas e economicas internas e externas.

Crédito bancário corporativo no Brasil: evolução recente e perspectivas

This article aims to analyse the evolution of the corporate banking credit market in Brazil during the recent cycle (january 2003 to june 2009) from a Keynesian theoretical reference point. The article focuses on the dynamics of the six major segments of this market (industry, commerce, services, infrastructure, real estate and rural sector), highlighting their main similarities and differences concerning the cyclical dynamics, the participation in the total corporate banking credit, the origin of resources, the composition of capital ownership and the performance of public and private banks.

The shadow banking system and the new phase of the money manager capitalism

Abstract: The conventional definition of the shadow banking system (SBS) put forward by economists of the Federal Reserve and endorsed by the Financial Stability Board and the International Monetary Fund is based on the mainstream view of banks as mere financial intermediaries. On the contrary, this article proposes a post Keynesian approach of the SBS that focuses on the banks’ key role of creating money ex nihilo, highlighted by Schumpeter, Keynes, and their followers, such as Minsky. The hypothesis argued here is that on the threshold of the twenty-first century a new phase of money manager capitalism emerged, in which many money managers along with other nonbanking financial institutions became members of the SBS as they took part in credit risk withdrawals from banks’ balance sheets. This was done through financial innovations (securitization and credit derivatives) that allowed banks to remove these risks from their balance sheets and, in turn, to grant increasing amounts of credit. Yet, by globally multiplying and redistributing the risks present in the system to a variety of financial institutions, they were responsible for the transformation of a classic credit crunch (wherein the sum of potential losses corresponding to loans with low collateral is known), into a systemic financial crisis in the international arena.