Marcos Tadeu Caputi Lélis

O Brasil e a crise financeira global: avaliando os canais de transmissão nas contas externas

In this paper we analyze some impacts of the current global financial crisis on Brazilian external accounts. Financial and trade transmission mechanisms are examined in detail in order to access new potential external vulnerabilities. We argue that external accounts performance depends on the interaction between external factors, which have been more relevant, and structural characteristics of the economy. We conclude with policy recommendations.

Desindustrialização e comércio exterior: evidências recentes para o Brasil

De-industrialization and foreign trade: recent evidences to Brazil. This paper analyses the behavior of the Brazilian manufacturing sector during the 2000s. We test the hypothesis of early de-industrialization induced by foreign trade. Our results show a mixed picture: although we showed signs of early de-industrialization induced by foreign trade, at the same time, we found evidence that Brazilian entrepreneurs have reduced manufacturing exports during internal market boom between 2004 and 2010. This fact determines the deterioration of trade balance of the manufacturing sector and justifies worries on long-term perspectives for Brazilian economy.

O Brasil no espelho da China : tendências para o período pós-crise financeira global

Este trabalho analisa como a reacao do governo chines a crise financeira global afetou a America Latina, particularmente o Brasil. A despeito das intencoes de reorientacao do seu modelo de crescimento, a resposta chinesa a crise reforcou, pelo menos a curto e medio prazos, a dependencia das exportacoes e dos investimentos. Em um quadro de lenta recuperacao das economias centrais, passa ganhar destaque o acesso a mercados mais dinâmicos, como os paises emergentes. Assim, para alem do papel de fornecedora de recursos naturais, as economias latino-americanas passam a ter uma importância renovada como destino das exportacoes de manufaturas e capitais chineses. Paises com estruturas produtivas mais maduras e diversificadas, como o Brasil, irao deparar-se com o risco de um processo de regressao em seus padroes de especializacao.

Impactos da ascensão da China sobre a economia brasileira: comércio e convergência cíclica

A ascensao chinesa a condicao de potencia economica e politica no âmbito global tem estado no centro dos debates academicos e politicos. Neste trabalho analisamos alguns impactos desse evento marcante sobre o Brasil. Mais especificamente, investigamos o comercio bilateral e os padroes de convergencia ciclica entre as duas economias, considerando uma analise mais ampla da competitividade externa da economia brasileira. As conclusoes exploram algumas implicacoes normativas dos nossos resultados.

Business cycle convergence and trade: Brazil and China in a changing world

The recent economic interaction between Latin America and Asia, particularly between Brazil and China, has attracted the attention of the academic world that seeks to understand the effects of this approach in terms of business cycle convergence, economic structure and development trajectory. This paper contributes to this debate, presenting new evidence about the type and quality of this relationship. Our results reveal that Brazil and China present different patterns of relationship between trade and productive specialization: while Brazil has an intra-industry trade pattern, China has an inter-industry trade pattern. We explore some normative implications and future research possibilities.The recent economic interaction between Latin America and Asia, particularly between Brazil and China, has attracted the attention of the academic world that seeks to understand the effects of this approach in terms of business cycle convergence, economic structure and development trajectory. This paper contributes to this debate, presenting new evidence about the type and quality of this relationship. Our results reveal that Brazil and China present different patterns of relationship between trade and productive specialization: while Brazil has an intra-industry trade pattern, China has an inter-industry trade pattern. We explore some normative implications and future research possibilities.

Os efeitos do novo regionalismo sobre o comércio

From 1990 there was a proliferation of Preferential Trade Agreements notified to the World Trade Organization and this study aims to identify whether this new regionalism led to trade creation or trade diversion to their participants, using a gravity model based on panel data over the period 1990-2009. The results suggest the existence of trade creation and export diversion due to the formation of Mercosur. With regards to NAFTA, besides being the only bloc that showed an anticipatory effect on their trade flows within the region, there are signs that the growth of trade occurred due to trade creation. Nevertheless, there are indications that the Asean and PAFTA caused trade diversion. Finally, the way that trade flows evolved within each bloc (ex ante and ex post) was quite different, not only in terms of trade volume but also on how quickly they responded to their formation, with its effects arising immediately in some cases and in others taking a few years.

BRAZIL IN FACE OF THE CHINESE RISE: THE RISKS OF REGRESSIVE SPECIALIZATION

This paper assesses how China’s rise as a global power has affected Latin America, in general, and Brazil, in particular. If the global economy will increasingly be Asian-centered and Sino-centered in the decades to come, we must ask which role will be reserved for Latin American countries. We argue that, despite the intentions of a re-orientation in its growth model, the response of the Chinese policymakers to the international financial crisis has reinforced, at least in the short and medium terms, the dependence on exports and investments. Considering the sluggish recovery in advanced economies, that strategy is likely to amplify Chinese pressures to access dynamic domestic markets in emerging countries. In this context, Latin America represents not only a source of natural resources but an increasingly important market for absorbing the Chinese manufactured products. As a consequence, countries such as Brazil, with more diversified production and international trade structures, might experience a regressive pattern of specialization, which might trigger protectionist reactions and other tensions on bilateral relations with China.

The Brazilian Credit Market During the Great Recession

Since the late 1990s, conventional wisdom has been challenged by the increasing instability of the financial markets. In this context, the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), which began in August 2007, and the “Great Recession ” (GR) that followed, led the governments of advanced and emerging countries to adopt countercyclical fiscal and monetary policies, mainly monetary policies, in an attempt to rescue financial and non-financial corporations . Brazil was not an exception. This chapter analyzes the Brazilian credit market during the GR. More specifically, we propose to test the hypothesis that State-owned Banks (SOB) are able to play a positive role in stabilizing aggregate credit, particularly during financial crises. Using two different econometric approaches, Markov-Switching Vector Autoregressive Models (MS-VAR) and Vector Error Correction (VEC) models, we will provide relevant evidence that would suggest that the credit originated in SOB shows countercyclical characteristics, while private banks behave in a typical pro-cyclical manner.

On the effectiveness of capital controls during the Great Recession: The Brazilian experience (2007–2013)

ABSTRACT In this study, we analyze the impact in Brazil of a tax on external capital flows called “Imposto Sobre Operações Finaceiras” (IOF), by following data on a monthly basis from 2007 to 2013. Our goal is to determine whether a change in tax legislation can produce significant effects on the pattern of financial inflows from abroad. Using univariate structural models, our results show that changes in the IOF produced structural breaks on foreign portfolio investments.

Determinantes macroeconômicos dos investimentos no Brasil: um estudo para o período 1996-2012

O presente trabalho discute os determinantes do investimento privado na economia brasileira no periodo 1996-2012. Mais especificamente, busca-se compreender quais variaveis macroeconomicas afetaram os gastos com bens de investimento no segmento de maquinas e equipamentos (FBME). Apos decompor as series utilizadas nos seus componentes nao observados e aplicar um modelo vetorial de correcao de erros (VEC), constatou-se que variaveis associadas aos modelos keynesianos (nivel de atividade/demanda, credito e expectativas) apresentaram melhor poder explicativo em nossa variavel de interesse. Nas consideracoes finais, nossos resultados sao contrastados com a literatura recente sobre as perspectivas de crescimento da economia brasileira.