Dao-Yi Gong

Detecting and understanding the multi-decadal variability of the East Asian Summer Monsoon: Recent progress and state of affairs

East Asia is dominated by a typical monsoon climate. The East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) exhibits considerable variability on a wide range of time scales during the 20 th century. A substantial portion is the multi-decadal variability. Over the recent decades, the EASM has been weakening from the end of the 1970s which results in a “southern China flood and northern China drought” rainfall pattern. Understanding the mechanisms responsible for the weakening tendency has been a challenge for climate research community. Examinations on the long-term change of the EASM during the 20 th century find no significant trends, indicating the pronounced weakening tendency of the EASM in recent decades is unprecedented. After documenting the prominent features of the interdecadal climate transition, a review is presented in this paper on the proposed explanations to the observed changes. The proposed factors include the Indian Ocean and far western Pacific warming, the tropical central-eastern Pacific warming, the weakening sensible heat source over the Tibetan Plateau, and the aerosol forcing, as well as internal variability. While parts of the monsoon circulation changes can be explained in terms of the proposed mechanisms, it is still beyond the scope of our current knowledge to present a complete picture. Much remains to be learned about the mechanisms that produce such multi-decadal changes in the EASM, but it seems still unclear whether human activities and global warming are playing significant roles.

Interdecadal Changes in Summertime Typhoon Tracks

Abstract The present work examines interdecadal variations of typhoon tracks in the western North Pacific (WNP) during the boreal summer (June–September) for the period 1951–2001. Typhoon tracks are expressed as percentage values of the total number of typhoon passages into a 5° × 5° latitude–longitude grid box with respect to the total number of typhoons formed in the WNP. The analysis period is divided into two interdecadal periods: ID1 (1951–79) and ID2 (1980–2001). From ID1 to ID2, typhoon passage frequency decreased significantly in the East China Sea and Philippine Sea, but increased slightly in the South China Sea. The time series of typhoon passage frequency over the East China Sea and South China Sea further reveal a regime shift in the late 1970s, while those over the Philippine Sea indicate a continuous downward trend of −9% decade−1. The interdecadal changes in typhoon tracks are associated with the westward expansion of the subtropical northwestern Pacific high (SNPH) in the late 1970s. The e...

Interannual teleconnections between the summer North Atlantic Oscillation and the East Asian summer monsoon

Here we present a study of the relationship between July-August (JA) mean climate over China, which is strongly linked to the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM), and the summer (JA) North Atlantic Oscillation (SNAO). The variations of temperature, precipitation, and cloud cover related to the SNAO were analyzed for the period 1951-2002 using gridded data sets as well as instrumental data from 160 stations in China. It was shown that the major patterns of summer climate over China are highly connected with the interannual variation of the SNAO, supporting a teleconnection between the North Atlantic region and East Asia. Based on the analyses of the daily and monthly reanalysis data sets, we propose possible mechanisms of this teleconnection. Changes in the position of the North Atlantic storm tracks and transient eddy activity associated with the positive (negative) SNAO phase contribute downstream to negative (positive) sea level pressure anomalies in northeastern East Asia. In negative SNAO years, a stationary wave pattern is excited from the southern SNAO center over northwestern Europe to northeastern East Asia. However, during positive SNAO years, a stationary wave pattern is excited extending from the SNAO center across the central Eurasian continent at around 40 degrees N and downstream to the southeast. This may explain a connection between the positive SNAO and atmospheric circulation in middle and southeastern China. (Less)

The Impact of Aerosols on the Summer Rainfall Frequency in China

Abstract The authors investigate the short-term relationship between aerosol concentrations and summer rainfall frequency in China using the daily surface observations of particulate matters with a diameter of less than 10 μm (PM10) mass concentration, rainfall, and satellite-observed cloud properties. Results in this study reveal that on the time scale of a few days aerosol concentration is positively correlated with the frequency of moderate-rainfall (10–20 mm day−1) days but is negatively correlated with the frequency of light-rainfall (<5 mm day−1) days. Satellite observations of cloud properties show that higher aerosol concentrations are positively correlated with the increase in mixed cloud amount, cloud effective radius, cloud optical depth, and cloud-top heights; this corresponds to the decrease in low-level liquid clouds and the increase in midlevel ice–mixed clouds. Based on this analysis, the authors hypothesize that the increase in aerosol concentration results in the increase in summer rainf...

Mechanism on how the spring Arctic sea ice impacts the East Asian summer monsoon

Observational analysis and purposely designed coupled atmosphere–ocean (AOGCM) and atmosphere-only (AGCM) model simulations are used together to investigate a new mechanism describing how spring Arctic sea ice impacts the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM). Consistent with previous studies, analysis of observational data from 1979 to 2009 show that spring Arctic sea ice is significantly linked to the EASM on inter-annual timescales. Results of a multivariate Empirical Orthogonal Function analysis reveal that sea surface temperature (SST) changes in the North Pacific play a mediating role for the inter-seasonal connection between spring Arctic sea ice and the EASM. Large-scale atmospheric circulation and precipitation changes are consistent with the SST changes. The mechanism found in the observational data is confirmed by the numerical experiments and can be described as follows: spring Arctic sea ice anomalies cause atmospheric circulation anomalies, which, in turn, cause SST anomalies in the North Pacific. The SST anomalies can persist into summer and then impact the summer monsoon circulation and precipitation over East Asia. The mediating role of SST changes is highlighted by the result that only the AOGCM, but not the AGCM, reproduces the observed sea ice-EASM linkage.

Decadal changes in tropical cyclone activity over the western North Pacific in the late 1990s

Abstract A pronounced decadal change in tropical cyclone (TC) activity over the western North Pacific (WNP) in the late 1990s was identified. Based on a comparison of the two epochs that occurred before and after the late 1990s, the TC genesis number exhibited an evident decrease over the southern WNP (S-WNP: 5°–20°N, 105°–170°E) and an increase over the northern WNP (N-WNP: 20°–25°N, 115°–155°E), which partly corresponded to a significant northward migration in the seasonal mean latitudinal location of TC genesis, i.e., from 17.2°N to 18.7°N. After the late 1990s, the northwestward-moving track became the most dominant track mode, accompanied by the weakening of both the westward-moving track and the northeastward-recurving track. Meanwhile, the TC occurrence frequency (TCF) experienced evident increases over southeastern China and the Okinawa islands, while prominent decreases occurred over the South China Sea, the Philippine Sea, Japan and east of Japan. Changes in the TCF were determined by TC genesis changes, TC track shifts and variations in regional TC durations, which were all ascribed to the decadal change in tropical Indo-Pacific sea surface temperature. The full picture on the decadal changes in the WNP TC activity revealed in this study may provide useful guidance for regional TC seasonal forecasts and future projections.

Modeled responses of summer climate to realistic land use/cover changes from the 1980s to the 2000s over eastern China

Eastern China has experienced substantial agricultural expansion and deforestation in recent decades. We modeled the influence of land use/cover changes (LUCCs) over eastern China on the regional climate using the Weather Research and Forecasting model with the Noah-multiparameterization land surface scheme. Two 21 year (1980-2000) experiments were performed using the same settings, except for the land use/cover data for the 1980s and the 2000s. The results showed that in northern China, decreases in the surface air temperature of approximately 0.3-0.5 degrees C and decreases (increases) in rainfall over the lower reaches of the Yangtze River valley (southern China, northeastern China, and the Korean Peninsula) of approximately 3% (6-7%) in the summer were associated with LUCCs in eastern China from the 1980s to the 2000s. The cooling effect in northern China, which was primarily attributable to an increase in the surface latent heat flux of approximately 7.3-9.6Wm(-2), weakened the land-ocean thermal contrast, suggesting the presence of a weaker summer monsoon over eastern China. As a result, rainfall over the lower reaches of the Yangtze River valley (southern China) tended to decrease (increase). In addition, the cooling effect may have produced an anomalous cyclonic circulation from the surface to the midtroposphere over northeastern China and the Korean Peninsula, resulting in increased rainfall over this area. Key Points

Observed Holiday Aerosol Reduction and Temperature Cooling over East Asia

The air pollution in Chinese Spring Festival (CSF) period over eastern China was investigated using the long-term observations from 2001 to 2012 over 323 stations. The dominant feature of the pollutants around the CSF holidays is the significant reduction of concentration. During the 10day period around the CSF (but excluding the Lunar New Years Day, LNYD), PM10 experiences a reduction of −9.24%. In association with the aerosol reduction, temperature significantly drops over eastern China. From the third day before the LNYD to the second day after, the daily mean temperature anomaly is −0.81°C, and for no-rain days the anomaly is −0.85°C. The simultaneous anomalies of the daily maximum and minimum temperatures are −0.79°C and −0.82°C, respectively. From the third day to seventh day after the LNYD, the significant negative temperature anomalies move out of China, extending to a broad area from the South China Sea to the western North Pacific. Between the 8th and the 12th days, the significant temperature anomalies can still be found over 140°E–160°E and 15°N–25°N. The reduced downward longwave flux might play an important role in holiday cooling. The possible atmospheric feedback is discernable. The thermal and circulation configuration accompanying the cooling favors baroclinic interaction between upper and lower troposphere for the midlatitude cyclone. The anomalous cyclone becomes mature during the third to the seventh day after the LNYD and disappears 12 days later. The anomalous northern winds in association with the cyclone decrease the temperature and also help disperse the holiday aerosols over eastern China.

WITHDRAWN: Cause and predictability for the severe haze pollutions in downtown Beijing during November–December 2015

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The Influence of Vegetation Variation on Northeast Asian Dust Activity

In this study, we investigate the influence of vegetation variations on dust activity (dust load, dust transport in the troposphere, and dust weather frequency) over Northeast Asia during springtime. By using the Integrated Wind Erosion Modeling System, two model experiments are run over four-month periods, from February 1 to May 31, for each year from 1982 to 2006; one experiment uses the observed atmospheric conditions and vegetation (OBS), and the other uses the specified atmospheric conditions in 2006 and the observed vegetation (CTRL). Comparison of the two model experiments reveals that there are sensitive regions in southeastern Mongolia and central northern China, in which vegetation has a large potential to influence dust activity due to both the high dust emission rate and large variations in vegetation coverage. Over these sensitive regions, vegetation effectively lessens dust loads on interannual and interdecadal timescales; dust load is decreased by 2864 μg m−2 for an increment of 0.1 in the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI). Vegetation increase in the sensitive areas also reduces two major branches of dust transports in the low troposphere; one stretches from eastern Mongolia to regions northeastward, and the other flows across the south of northeastern China to Korea. In addition to dust loads and transports, vegetation increase in the sensitive areas evidently decreases dust storm frequency and blowing dust frequency, but it exerts a weak influence on the floating dust frequency. In the sensitive regions, as NDVI increases by 0.1, dust storms, blowing dust, and floating dust decrease by 4.0 days/spring, 1.5 days/spring, and 0.2 days/spring, respectively. In summary, vegetation variations in southeastern Mongolia and central northern China have considerable impact on northeast Asian dust during springtime.