Yongqi Gao

Evaluation of ocean carbon cycle models with data-based metrics

New radiocarbon and chlorofluorocarbon-11 data from the World Ocean Circulation Experiment are used to assess a suite of 19 ocean carbon cycle models. We use the distributions and inventories of these tracers as quantitative metrics of model skill and find that only about a quarter of the suite is consistent with the new data-based metrics. This should serve as a warning bell to the larger community that not all is well with current generation of ocean carbon cycle models. At the same time, this highlights the danger in simply using the available models to represent the state-of-the-art modeling without considering the credibility of each model.

Evaluation of ocean model ventilation with CFC-11: comparison of 13 global ocean models

We compared the 13 models participating in the Ocean Carbon Model Intercomparison Project (OCMIP) with regards to their skill in matching observed distributions of CFC-11. This analysis characterizes the abilities of these models to ventilate the ocean on timescales relevant for anthropogenic CO2 uptake. We found a large range in the modeled global inventory (±30%), mainly due to differences in ventilation from the high latitudes. In the Southern Ocean, models differ particularly in the longitudinal distribution of the CFC uptake in the intermediate water, whereas the latitudinal distribution is mainly controlled by the subgrid-scale parameterization. Models with isopycnal diffusion and eddy-induced velocity parameterization produce more realistic intermediate water ventilation. Deep and bottom water ventilation also varies substantially between the models. Models coupled to a sea-ice model systematically provide more realistic AABW formation source region; however these same models also largely overestimate AABW ventilation if no specific parameterization of brine rejection during sea-ice formation is included. In the North Pacific Ocean, all models exhibit a systematic large underestimation of the CFC uptake in the thermocline of the subtropical gyre, while no systematic difference toward the observations is found in the subpolar gyre. In the North Atlantic Ocean, the CFC uptake is globally underestimated in subsurface. In the deep ocean, all but the adjoint model, failed to produce the two recently ventilated branches observed in the North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW). Furthermore, simulated transport in the Deep Western Boundary Current (DWBC) is too sluggish in all but the isopycnal model, where it is too rapid.

Evaluating global ocean carbon models: The importance of realistic physics

A suite of standard ocean hydrographic and circulation metrics are applied to the equilibrium physical solutions from 13 global carbon models participating in phase 2 of the Ocean Carbon-cycle Model Intercomparison Project (OCMIP-2). Model-data comparisons are presented for sea surface temperature and salinity, seasonal mixed layer depth, meridional heat and freshwater transport, 3-D hydrographic fields, and meridional overturning. Considerable variation exists among the OCMIP-2 simulations, with some of the solutions falling noticeably outside available observational constraints. For some cases, model-model and model-data differences can be related to variations in surface forcing, subgrid-scale parameterizations, and model architecture. These errors in the physical metrics point to significant problems in the underlying model representations of ocean transport and dynamics, problems that directly affect the OCMIP predicted ocean tracer and carbon cycle variables (e.g., air-sea CO2 flux, chlorofluorocarbon and anthropogenic CO2 uptake, and export production). A substantial fraction of the large model-model ranges in OCMIP-2 biogeochemical fields (±25–40%) represents the propagation of known errors in model physics. Therefore the model-model spread likely overstates the uncertainty in our current understanding of the ocean carbon system, particularly for transport-dominated fields such as the historical uptake of anthropogenic CO2. A full error assessment, however, would need to account for additional sources of uncertainty such as more complex biological-chemical-physical interactions, biases arising from poorly resolved or neglected physical processes, and climate change.

Simulated North Atlantic-Nordic Seas water mass exchanges in an isopycnic coordinate OGCM

[1] The variability in the volume exchanges between the North Atlantic and the Nordic Seas during the last 50 years is investigated using a synoptic forced, global version of the Miami Isopycnic Coordinate Ocean Model (MICOM). The simulated volume fluxes agree with the existing observations. The net volume flux across the FaroeShetland Channel (FSC) is positively correlated with the net flux through the Denmark Strait (DS; R = 0.74 for 3 years low pass filtering), but negatively correlated with the net flux across the Iceland-Faroe Ridge (IFR; R = 0.80). For the Atlantic inflow across the FSC and IFR, the correlation is R = 0.59. For the transports through the FSC and DS, the simulation suggests that an atmospheric pattern resembling the North Atlantic Oscillation is the main driving force for the variations, involving Ekman fluxes and barotropic adjustment. The model also shows a 0.7 Sv reduction of the Atlantic inflow to the Nordic Seas since the late 50’s. INDEX TERMS: 4215 Oceanography: General: Climate and interannual variability (3309); 4255 Oceanography: General: Numerical modeling; 9315 Information Related to Geographic Region: Arctic region; 1635 Global Change: Oceans

Arctic sea ice and Eurasian climate: A review

The Arctic plays a fundamental role in the climate system and has shown significant climate change in recent decades, including the Arctic warming and decline of Arctic sea-ice extent and thickness. In contrast to the Arctic warming and reduction of Arctic sea ice, Europe, East Asia and North America have experienced anomalously cold conditions, with record snowfall during recent years. In this paper, we review current understanding of the sea-ice impacts on the Eurasian climate. Paleo, observational and modelling studies are covered to summarize several major themes, including: the variability of Arctic sea ice and its controls; the likely causes and apparent impacts of the Arctic sea-ice decline during the satellite era, as well as past and projected future impacts and trends; the links and feedback mechanisms between the Arctic sea ice and the Arctic Oscillation/North Atlantic Oscillation, the recent Eurasian cooling, winter atmospheric circulation, summer precipitation in East Asia, spring snowfall over Eurasia, East Asian winter monsoon, and midlatitude extreme weather; and the remote climate response (e.g., atmospheric circulation, air temperature) to changes in Arctic sea ice. We conclude with a brief summary and suggestions for future research.

Modulation of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation on the summer precipitation over East China: a comparison of observations to 600-years control run of Bergen Climate Model

Abstract Observations show that the summer precipitation over East China often goes through decadal variations of opposite sign over North China and the Yangtze River valley (YRV), such as the “southern flood and northern drought” pattern that occurred during the late 1970s–1990s. In this study it is shown that a modulation of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) on the summer precipitation pattern over East China during the last century is partly responsible for this characteristic precipitation pattern. During positive PDO phases, the warm winter sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the eastern subtropical Pacific along the western coast of North American propagate to the tropics in the following summer due to weakened oceanic meridional circulation and the existence of a coupled wind–evaporation–SST feedback mechanism, resulting in a warming in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean (5°N–20°N, 160°W–120°W) in summer. This in turn causes a zonal anomalous circulation over the subtropical–tropical Pacific Ocean that induces a strengthened western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) and thus more moisture over the YRV region. The end result of these events is that the summer precipitation is increased over the YRV region while it is decreased over North China. The suggested mechanism is found both in the observations and in a 600-years fully coupled pre-industrial multi-century control simulations with Bergen Climate Model. The intensification of the WPSH due to the warming in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean was also examined in idealized SSTA-forced AGCM experiments.

Ocean General Circulation Modelling of the Nordic Seas

The complexity of the state-of-the-art Ocean General Circulation Models (OGCMs) has increased and the quality of the model systems has improved considerably over the last decades. The improvement is caused by a variety of factors ranging from improved representation of key physical and dynamical processes, parallel development of at least three classes of OGCM systems, accurate and cost-effective numerical schemes, an unprecedented increase in computational resources, and the availability of synoptic, multidecadal atmospheric forcing fields. The implications of these improvements are that the present generation of OGCMs can, for the first time, complement available ocean observations and be used to guide forthcoming ocean observation strategies. OGCMs are also extensively used as laboratories for assessing cause-relationships for observed changes in the marine climate system, and to assess how the ocean system may change in response to, for instance, anomalous air-sea fluxes of heat, freshwater, and momentum. The Nordic Seas are a particularly challenging region for OGCMs because of characteristic length scales of only a few to about 10 km, a variety of complex and interrelated ocean processes, and extreme air-sea fluxes. This paper gives an overview of the status of the prognostic modelling of the Nordic Seas marine climate system. To exemplify the status, we present output from two widely different state-of-the-art OGCM systems. We also address processes that are still inadequately described in the current generation of OGCMs, thus providing guidelines for the future development of model systems particularly tailored for the Nordic Seas region.

On the Strengthened Relationship between the East Asian Winter Monsoon and Arctic Oscillation: A Comparison of 1950–70 and 1983–2012

AbstractIn this paper, the authors use NCEP reanalysis and 40-yr ECMWF Re-Analysis (ERA-40) data to document the strengthened relationship between the East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) and winter Arctic Oscillation (AO) on the interannual time scale with a comparison of 1950–70 and 1983–2012. Their connection was statistically insignificant during 1950–70, whereas it was statistically significant during 1983–2012. The latter significant connection might be attributed to the East Asian jet stream (EAJS) upstream extension: the EAJS signal is relatively confined to the western North Pacific before the 1970s, whereas it extends westward toward East Asia after the 1980s. This upstream extension leads to the rearrangement of eastward-propagating Rossby waves with a much wider horizontal structure, thereby bonding the EAWM and the AO.Furthermore, the authors present observational evidence and model simulations demonstrating that the reduction of autumn Arctic sea ice cover (ASIC) is responsible for the strengthe...

Mechanism on how the spring Arctic sea ice impacts the East Asian summer monsoon

Observational analysis and purposely designed coupled atmosphere–ocean (AOGCM) and atmosphere-only (AGCM) model simulations are used together to investigate a new mechanism describing how spring Arctic sea ice impacts the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM). Consistent with previous studies, analysis of observational data from 1979 to 2009 show that spring Arctic sea ice is significantly linked to the EASM on inter-annual timescales. Results of a multivariate Empirical Orthogonal Function analysis reveal that sea surface temperature (SST) changes in the North Pacific play a mediating role for the inter-seasonal connection between spring Arctic sea ice and the EASM. Large-scale atmospheric circulation and precipitation changes are consistent with the SST changes. The mechanism found in the observational data is confirmed by the numerical experiments and can be described as follows: spring Arctic sea ice anomalies cause atmospheric circulation anomalies, which, in turn, cause SST anomalies in the North Pacific. The SST anomalies can persist into summer and then impact the summer monsoon circulation and precipitation over East Asia. The mediating role of SST changes is highlighted by the result that only the AOGCM, but not the AGCM, reproduces the observed sea ice-EASM linkage.

Effects of diapycnal and isopycnal mixing on the ventilation of CFCs in the North Atlantic in an isopycnic coordinate OGCM

Simulated distributions of the chlorofluorocarbons CFC-11 and CFC-12 are used to examine the ventilation of the North Atlantic Ocean in a global version of the Miami Isopycnic Coordinate Ocean Model (MICOM). Three simulations are performed: one with a diapycnal diffusivity Kd = 3 × 10−7/N m2 s−1 and an isopycnal diffusive velocity (i.e., diffusivity divided by the size of the grid cell) vtrac = 0.01 m s−1 (Exp. 1); Exp. 2 is as Exp. 1 but with Kd = 5 × 10−8/N m2 s−1 plus increased bottom mixing; and Exp. 3 is as Exp. 2 but with vtrac = 0.0025 m s−1. The main features of the simulated ventilation are strong uptake of the CFCs in the Labrador, Irminger and Nordic Seas, and a topographically aligned geostrophically controlled southward transport of CFC-enriched water in the Atlantic. It is found that the Overflow Waters (OW) from the Nordic Seas, the penetration of the western boundary currents, the ventilation of the subtropical surface waters, the vertical density stratification and the meridional overturning are all critically dependent on the applied isopycnal and diapycnal diffusivities, with Exp. 3 (Exp. 1) yielding the most (least) realistic results. Furthermore, it is the combined rather than the isolated effect of the isopycnal and diapycnal diffusivities that matter. For instance, the strength of the simulated Meridional Overturning Circulation (MOC) is similar in Exps. 1 and 3, but the simulated CFC-distributions are far too diffusive in Exp. 1 and fairly realistic in Exp. 3. It is demonstrated that the simulated distributions of transient tracers like the CFCs can be used to set the strength of the applied isopycnal mixing parameterization, a task that is difficult to conduct based on the simulated hydrography alone.