Dave Bouwer

The SOLAR2000 empirical solar irradiance model and forecast tool

Abstract SOLAR2000 is a collaborative project for accurately characterizing solar irradiance variability across the spectrum. A new image- and full-disk proxy empirical solar irradiance model, SOLAR2000, is being developed that is valid in the spectral range of 1–1,000,000 nm for historical modeling and forecasting throughout the solar system. The overarching scientific goal behind SOLAR2000 is to understand how the Sun varies spectrally and through time from X-ray through infrared wavelengths. This will contribute to answering key scientific questions and will aid national programmatic goals related to solar irradiance specification. SOLAR2000 is designed to be a fundamental energy input into planetary atmosphere models, a comparative model with numerical/first principles solar models, and a tool to model or predict the solar radiation component of the space environment. It is compliant with the developing International Standards Organization (ISO) solar irradiance standard. SOLAR2000 captures the essence of historically measured solar irradiances and this expands our knowledge about the quiet and variable Sun including its historical envelope of variability. The implementation of the SOLAR2000 is described, including the development of a new EUV proxy, E10.7, which has the same units as the commonly used F10.7. SOLAR2000 also provides an operational forecasting and global specification capability for solar irradiances and information can be accessed at the website address of http://www.spacenvironment.net.

Global real‐time dose measurements using the Automated Radiation Measurements for Aerospace Safety (ARMAS) system

The Automated Radiation Measurements for Aerospace Safety (ARMAS) program has successfully deployed a fleet of six instruments measuring the ambient radiation environment at commercial aircraft altitudes. ARMAS transmits real-time data to the ground and provides quality, tissue-relevant ambient dose equivalent rates with 5-minute latency for dose rates on 213 flights up to 17.3 km (56,700 ft.). We show five cases from different aircraft; the source particles are dominated by Galactic Cosmic Rays but include particle fluxes for minor radiation periods and geomagnetically disturbed conditions. The measurements from 2013–2016 do not cover a period of time to quantify Galactic Cosmic Rays’ (GCRs) dependence on solar cycle variation and their effect on aviation radiation. However, we report on small radiation “clouds” in specific magnetic latitude regions and note that active geomagnetic, variable space weather conditions may sufficiently modify the magnetospheric magnetic field that can enhance the radiation environment, particularly at high altitudes and mid- to high-latitudes. When there is no significant space weather, high latitude flights produce a dose rate analogous to a chest X-ray every 12.5 hours, every 25 hours for mid-latitudes, and every 100 hours for equatorial latitudes at typical commercial flight altitudes of 37,000 ft. (~11 km). The dose rate doubles every 2 km altitude increase, suggesting a radiation event management strategy for pilots or air traffic control, i.e., where event-driven radiation regions can be identified, they can be treated like volcanic ash clouds to achieve radiation safety goals with slightly lower flight altitudes or more equatorial flight paths.