Dave Murray-Rust

From actors to agents in socio-ecological systems models

The ecosystem service concept has emphasized the role of people within socio-ecological systems (SESs). In this paper, we review and discuss alternative ways of representing people, their behaviour and decision-making processes in SES models using an agent-based modelling (ABM) approach. We also explore how ABM can be empirically grounded using information from social survey. The capacity for ABM to be generalized beyond case studies represents a crucial next step in modelling SESs, although this comes with considerable intellectual challenges. We propose the notion of human functional types, as an analogy of plant functional types, to support the expansion (scaling) of ABM to larger areas. The expansion of scope also implies the need to represent institutional agents in SES models in order to account for alternative governance structures and policy feedbacks. Further development in the coupling of human-environment systems would contribute considerably to better application and use of the ecosystem service concept.

Conceptualising the analysis of socio-ecological systems through ecosystem services and agent-based modeling

In this article we present a conceptual model for analysing socio-economic systems using agent-based modelling, with ecosystem services as the focus of analysis. This is designed to allow the development of integrated models of human land managers, the landscapes which they manage and certain species of interest which live in these landscapes. We argue that in order to understand the effect of humans on the landscape and ES provision, we must take into account the preferences and priorities which they have; it is necessary to firmly embed their models into a rich socio-ecological model context, while taking into account the idiosyncrasies of human decision making. This requires a rich representation of plant and animal responses to human actions, in order to provide dynamic feedback on the results of courses of action and move beyond the static indicator frameworks commonly used. After exploring possible implementations of parts of the conceptual model, we conclude that it will provide a useful tool for analysing the effects of human behaviour on ecosystem services.

Analysing uncertainties in climate change impact assessment across sectors and scenarios

Many models have been developed to explore the likely consequences of climate change. These models tend to focus on single physical or socio-economic sectors and their processes, and neglect the many feedbacks that occur between the different components of the real world. To overcome this problem, models are increasingly being combined in integrated assessment platforms (IAPs), of which the CLIMSAVE IAP is an example, modelling cross-sectoral impacts, adaptation and vulnerability to climate change in Europe by combining 10 different meta-models that focus on specific sectors. Where models are combined in this way, however, attention must be given to the potential errors and uncertainties that integration might introduce. We present a quantitative uncertainty analysis of selected outputs of the CLIMSAVE IAP based on creating and sampling from probability density functions (PDFs) of each of the IAP’s input variables to take account of model and scenario uncertainty. We find limited uncertainties in aggregate outputs of the IAP, which allow specific impacts to be predicted with definable levels of confidence. However, we also find substantial overlap between different socio-economic scenarios at the European scale, suggesting that changes to socio-economic conditions cannot reliably overcome climate-related uncertainty. Nevertheless, there is evidence that particular adaptation actions may significantly alter the impacts of climate change, especially at local or national scales.

Experiments in globalisation, food security and land use decision making.

The globalisation of trade affects land use, food production and environments around the world. In principle, globalisation can maximise productivity and efficiency if competition prompts specialisation on the basis of productive capacity. In reality, however, such specialisation is often constrained by practical or political barriers, including those intended to ensure national or regional food security. These are likely to produce globally sub-optimal distributions of land uses. Both outcomes are subject to the responses of individual land managers to economic and environmental stimuli, and these responses are known to be variable and often (economically) irrational. We investigate the consequences of stylised food security policies and globalisation of agricultural markets on land use patterns under a variety of modelled forms of land manager behaviour, including variation in production levels, tenacity, land use intensity and multi-functionality. We find that a system entirely dedicated to regional food security is inferior to an entirely globalised system in terms of overall production levels, but that several forms of behaviour limit the difference between the two, and that variations in land use intensity and functionality can substantially increase the provision of food and other ecosystem services in both cases. We also find emergent behaviour that results in the abandonment of productive land, the slowing of rates of land use change and the fragmentation or, conversely, concentration of land uses following changes in demand levels.

Self Curation, Social Partitioning, Escaping from Prejudice and Harassment: The Many Dimensions of Lying Online

Portraying matters as other than they truly are is an important part of everyday human communication. In this paper, we use a survey to examine ways in which people fabricate, omit or alter the truth online. Many reasons are found, including creative expression, hiding sensitive information, role-playing, and avoiding harassment or discrimination. The results suggest lying is often used for benign purposes, and we conclude that its use may be essential to maintaining a humane online society.

How do Europeans want to live in 2040? Citizen visions and their consequences for European land use

The aspirations, motivations and choices of individual European citizens are a major driver of the future of global, European and local land use. However, until now no land use study has explicitly attempted to find out how the general public wants to live in the future. This paper forms a first attempt to survey European citizens to understand their desired future lives in relation to consequences for European land use. We used a crowdsourcing experiment to elicit visions from young Europeans about their lives in 2040. Participants completed a graphic novel around carefully selected questions, allowing them to create a story of their imagined future lives in pictures. The methodology worked well, and the sample seemed reasonably representative albeit skewed towards an educated population. In total, 1131 responses from 29 countries were received. Results show a strong desire for change, and for more sustainable lifestyles. There is desire for local and ecologically friendly food production, to eat less meat, to have access to green infrastructure and the ability to cycle to work. However, international travel remains popular, and the desire for extensive food production and owning detached houses with gardens will likely result in complex land use trade-offs. Future work could focus more specifically on quantifying these trade-offs and inform respondents about the consequences of their lifestyle choices. This was a first attempt to use crowdsourcing to understand citizen visions for their lives in the future, and our lessons learned will help future studies improve representativeness and increase responses.

Computationally Mediated Pro-Social Deception

Deception is typically regarded as a morally impoverished choice. However, in the context of increasingly intimate, connected and ramified systems of online interaction, manipulating information in ways that could be considered deceptive is often necessary, useful, and even morally justifiable. In this study, we apply a speculative design approach to explore the idea of tools that assist in pro-social forms of online deception, such as those that conceal, distort, falsify and omit information in ways that promote sociality. In one-on-one semi-structured interviews, we asked 15 participants to respond to a selection of speculations, consisting of imagined tools that reify particular approaches to deception. Participants reflected upon potential practical, ethical, and social implications of the use of such tools, revealing a variety of ways such tools might one day encourage polite behaviour, support individual autonomy, provide a defence against privacy intrusions, navigate social status asymmetries, and even promote more open, honest behaviour.

Design Patterns for Data Comics

Data comics for data-driven storytelling are inspired by the visual language of comics and aim to communicate insights in data through visualizations. While comics are widely known, few examples of data comics exist and there has not been any structured analysis nor guidance for their creation. We introduce data-comic design-patterns, each describing a set of panels with a specific narrative purpose, that allow for rapid storyboarding of data comics while showcasing their expressive potential. Our patterns are derived from i) analyzing common patterns in infographics, datavideos, and existing data comics, ii) our experiences creating data comics for different scenarios. Our patterns demonstrate how data comics allow an author to combine the best of both worlds: spatial layout and overview from infographics as well as linearity and narration from videos and presentations.

Sketching sustainable land use in Europe by 2040: a multi-stakeholder participatory approach to elicit cross-sectoral visions

The continuously growing global demands on a finite land resource will require better strategic policies and management of trade-offs to avoid conflicts between different land-use sectors. Visions of the future can support strategic planning by stimulating dialogue, building a consensus on shared priorities and providing long-term targets. We present a novel approach to elicit stakeholder visions of future desired land use, which was applied with a broad range of experts to develop cross-sectoral visions in Europe. The approach is based on (i) combination of software tools and facilitation techniques to stimulate engagement and creativity; (ii) methodical selection of stakeholders; (iii) use of land attributes to deconstruct the multifaceted sectoral visions into land-use changes that can be clustered into few cross-sectoral visions, and (iv) a rigorous iterative process. Three cross-sectoral visions of sustainable land use in Europe in 2040 emerged from applying the approach in participatory workshops involving experts in nature conservation, recreation, agriculture, forestry, settlements, energy, and water. The three visions—Best Land in Europe, Regional Connected and Local Multifunctional—shared a wish to achieve a land use that is sustainable through multifunctionality, resource use efficiency, controlled urban growth, rural renewal and widespread nature. However, they differ on the scale at which land services are provided—EU-wide, regional or local—reflecting the land-sparing versus land-sharing debate. We discuss the usefulness of the approach, as well as the challenges posed and solutions offered by the visions to support strategic land-use planning.

Bootstrapping the Next Generation of Social Machines

The term “social machines” denotes a class of systems where humans and machines interact so that computational infrastructure supports human creativity. Flagship examples such as Wikipedia and Ushahidi demonstrate how computational coordination can enhance information sharing and aggregation, while the Zooniverse family of projects show how social machines can produce scientific knowledge. These socio-technical systems cannot easily be analysed in purely computational or purely sociological terms, and they cannot be reduced to Turing machines. Social machines are used in the creation of software, from software crowdsourcing projects such as TopCoder and oDesk, to distributed development platforms such at GitHub and Bitbucket . Hence, social machines are increasingly used to create the software infrastructure for new social machine. However, social machine development is a more complex process than software development, as the community must be “programmed” as well as the machines. This leads to development in the context evolving and unknown requirements, and having to deal with more sociological concepts than formal systems designers usually work with. We hence model the process using two coupled social machines: the target social machine , with whatever purposes the creators envisions, and the development social machine which is used to create it. As an example, oDesk can form part of a development social machine which might be used to create a target social machine, e.g. “the next Facebook”. In this chapter, we describe a formalism for social machines, consisting of i) a community of humans and their “social software” interacting with ii) a collection of computational resources and their associated state, protocols and ability to analyse data and make inferences. We draw on the ideas of ‘desire lines’ and ‘play-in’ to argue that top down design of social machines is impossible, that we hence need to leverage computational support in creating complex systems in an iterative, dynamic and emergent manner, and that our formalism provides a possible blueprint for how to do this.