David A. Clifton

Whole-genome sequencing for prediction of Mycobacterium tuberculosis drug susceptibility and resistance: a retrospective cohort study.

Summary Background Diagnosing drug-resistance remains an obstacle to the elimination of tuberculosis. Phenotypic drug-susceptibility testing is slow and expensive, and commercial genotypic assays screen only common resistance-determining mutations. We used whole-genome sequencing to characterise common and rare mutations predicting drug resistance, or consistency with susceptibility, for all first-line and second-line drugs for tuberculosis. Methods Between Sept 1, 2010, and Dec 1, 2013, we sequenced a training set of 2099 Mycobacterium tuberculosis genomes. For 23 candidate genes identified from the drug-resistance scientific literature, we algorithmically characterised genetic mutations as not conferring resistance (benign), resistance determinants, or uncharacterised. We then assessed the ability of these characterisations to predict phenotypic drug-susceptibility testing for an independent validation set of 1552 genomes. We sought mutations under similar selection pressure to those characterised as resistance determinants outside candidate genes to account for residual phenotypic resistance. Findings We characterised 120 training-set mutations as resistance determining, and 772 as benign. With these mutations, we could predict 89·2% of the validation-set phenotypes with a mean 92·3% sensitivity (95% CI 90·7–93·7) and 98·4% specificity (98·1–98·7). 10·8% of validation-set phenotypes could not be predicted because uncharacterised mutations were present. With an in-silico comparison, characterised resistance determinants had higher sensitivity than the mutations from three line-probe assays (85·1% vs 81·6%). No additional resistance determinants were identified among mutations under selection pressure in non-candidate genes. Interpretation A broad catalogue of genetic mutations enable data from whole-genome sequencing to be used clinically to predict drug resistance, drug susceptibility, or to identify drug phenotypes that cannot yet be genetically predicted. This approach could be integrated into routine diagnostic workflows, phasing out phenotypic drug-susceptibility testing while reporting drug resistance early. Funding Wellcome Trust, National Institute of Health Research, Medical Research Council, and the European Union.

Photoplethysmographic derivation of respiratory rate: a review of relevant physiology

An abnormal respiratory rate is often the earliest sign of critical illness. A reliable estimate of respiratory rate is vital in the application of remote telemonitoring systems, which may facilitate early supported discharge from hospital or prompt recognition of physiological deterioration in high-risk patient groups. Traditional approaches use analysis of respiratory sinus arrhythmia from the electrocardiogram (ECG), but this phenomenon is predominantly limited to the young and healthy. Analysis of the photoplethysmogram (PPG) waveform offers an alternative means of non-invasive respiratory rate monitoring, but further development is required to enable reliable estimates. This review conceptualizes the challenge by discussing the effect of respiration on the PPG waveform and the key physiological mechanisms that underpin the derivation of respiratory rate from the PPG.

Centile-based early warning scores derived from statistical distributions of vital signs

AIM OF STUDY To develop an early warning score (EWS) system based on the statistical properties of the vital signs in at-risk hospitalised patients. MATERIALS AND METHODS A large dataset comprising 64,622 h of vital-sign data, acquired from 863 acutely ill in-hospital patients using bedside monitors, was used to investigate the statistical properties of the four main vital signs. Normalised histograms and cumulative distribution functions were plotted for each of the four variables. A centile-based alerting system was modelled using the aggregated database. RESULTS The means and standard deviations of our populations vital signs are very similar to those published in previous studies. When compared with EWS systems based on a future outcome, the cut-off values in our system are most different for respiratory rate and systolic blood pressure. With four-hourly observations in a 12-h shift, about 1 in 8 at-risk patients would trigger our alerting system during the shift. CONCLUSIONS A centile-based EWS system will identify patients with abnormal vital signs regardless of their eventual outcome and might therefore be more likely to generate an alert when presented with patients with redeemable morbidity or avoidable mortality. We are about to start a stepped-wedge clinical trial gradually introducing an electronic version of our EWS system on the trauma wards in a teaching hospital.

Novelty Detection with Multivariate Extreme Value Statistics

Novelty detection, or one-class classification, aims to determine if data are “normal” with respect to some model of normality constructed using examples of normal system behaviour. If that model is composed of generative probability distributions, the extent of “normality” in the data space can be described using Extreme Value Theory (EVT), a branch of statistics concerned with describing the tails of distributions. This paper demonstrates that existing approaches to the use of EVT for novelty detection are appropriate only for univariate, unimodal problems. We generalise the use of EVT for novelty detection to the analysis of data with multivariate, multimodal distributions, allowing a principled approach to the analysis of high-dimensional data to be taken. Examples are provided using vital-sign data obtained from a large clinical study of patients in a high-dependency hospital ward.

Gaussian Processes for Personalized e-Health Monitoring With Wearable Sensors

Advances in wearable sensing and communications infrastructure have allowed the widespread development of prototype medical devices for patient monitoring. However, such devices have not penetrated into clinical practice, primarily due to a lack of research into “intelligent” analysis methods that are sufficiently robust to support large-scale deployment. Existing systems are typically plagued by large false-alarm rates, and an inability to cope with sensor artifact in a principled manner. This paper has two aims: 1) proposal of a novel, patient-personalized system for analysis and inference in the presence of data uncertainty, typically caused by sensor artifact and data incompleteness; 2) demonstration of the method using a large-scale clinical study in which 200 patients have been monitored using the proposed system. This latter provides much-needed evidence that personalized e-health monitoring is feasible within an actual clinical environment, at scale, and that the method is capable of improving patient outcomes via personalized healthcare.

Signal-Quality Indices for the Electrocardiogram and Photoplethysmogram: Derivation and Applications to Wireless Monitoring

The identification of invalid data in recordings obtained using wearable sensors is of particular importance since data obtained from mobile patients is, in general, noisier than data obtained from nonmobile patients. In this paper, we present a signal quality index (SQI), which is intended to assess whether reliable heart rates (HRs) can be obtained from electrocardiogram (ECG) and photoplethysmogram (PPG) signals collected using wearable sensors. The algorithms were validated on manually labeled data. Sensitivities and specificities of 94% and 97% were achieved for the ECG and 91% and 95% for the PPG. Additionally, we propose two applications of the SQI. First, we demonstrate that, by using the SQI as a trigger for a power-saving strategy, it is possible to reduce the recording time by up to 94% for the ECG and 93% for the PPG with only minimal loss of valid vital-sign data. Second, we demonstrate how an SQI can be used to reduce the error in the estimation of respiratory rate (RR) from the PPG. The performance of the two applications was assessed on data collected from a clinical study on hospital patients who were able to walk unassisted.

Predictive Monitoring of Mobile Patients by Combining Clinical Observations With Data From Wearable Sensors

The majority of patients in the hospital are ambulatory and would benefit significantly from predictive and personalized monitoring systems. Such patients are well suited to having their physiological condition monitored using low-power, minimally intrusive wearable sensors. Despite data-collection systems now being manufactured commercially, allowing physiological data to be acquired from mobile patients, little work has been undertaken on the use of the resultant data in a principled manner for robust patient care, including predictive monitoring. Most current devices generate so many false-positive alerts that devices cannot be used for routine clinical practice. This paper explores principled machine learning approaches to interpreting large quantities of continuously acquired, multivariate physiological data, using wearable patient monitors, where the goal is to provide early warning of serious physiological determination, such that a degree of predictive care may be provided. We adopt a one-class support vector machine formulation, proposing a formulation for determining the free parameters of the model using partial area under the ROC curve, a method arising from the unique requirements of performing online analysis with data from patient-worn sensors. There are few clinical evaluations of machine learning techniques in the literature, so we present results from a study at the Oxford University Hospitals NHS Trust devised to investigate the large-scale clinical use of patient-worn sensors for predictive monitoring in a ward with a high incidence of patient mortality. We show that our system can combine routine manual observations made by clinical staff with the continuous data acquired from wearable sensors. Practical considerations and recommendations based on our experiences of this clinical study are discussed, in the context of a framework for personalized monitoring.

Identifying lineage effects when controlling for population structure improves power in bacterial association studies.

Bacteria pose unique challenges for genome-wide association studies because of strong structuring into distinct strains and substantial linkage disequilibrium across the genome1,2. Although methods developed for human studies can correct for strain structure3,4, this risks considerable loss-of-power because genetic differences between strains often contribute substantial phenotypic variability5. Here, we propose a new method that captures lineage-level associations even when locus-specific associations cannot be fine-mapped. We demonstrate its ability to detect genes and genetic variants underlying resistance to 17 antimicrobials in 3,144 isolates from four taxonomically diverse clonal and recombining bacteria: Mycobacterium tuberculosis, Staphylococcus aureus, Escherichia coli and Klebsiella pneumoniae. Strong selection, recombination and penetrance confer high power to recover known antimicrobial resistance mechanisms and reveal a candidate association between the outer membrane porin nmpC and cefazolin resistance in E. coli. Hence, our method pinpoints locus-specific effects where possible and boosts power by detecting lineage-level differences when fine-mapping is intractable.

Multitask Gaussian Processes for Multivariate Physiological Time-Series Analysis

Gaussian process (GP) models are a flexible means of performing nonparametric Bayesian regression. However, GP models in healthcare are often only used to model a single univariate output time series, denoted as single-task GPs (STGP). Due to an increasing prevalence of sensors in healthcare settings, there is an urgent need for robust multivariate time-series tools. Here, we propose a method using multitask GPs (MTGPs) which can model multiple correlated multivariate physiological time series simultaneously. The flexible MTGP framework can learn the correlation between multiple signals even though they might be sampled at different frequencies and have training sets available for different intervals. Furthermore, prior knowledge of any relationship between the time series such as delays and temporal behavior can be easily integrated. A novel normalization is proposed to allow interpretation of the various hyperparameters used in the MTGP. We investigate MTGPs for physiological monitoring with synthetic data sets and two real-world problems from the field of patient monitoring and radiotherapy. The results are compared with standard Gaussian processes and other existing methods in the respective biomedical application areas. In both cases, we show that our framework learned the correlation between physiological time series efficiently, outperforming the existing state of the art.

An assessment of algorithms to estimate respiratory rate from the electrocardiogram and photoplethysmogram.

Abstract Over 100 algorithms have been proposed to estimate respiratory rate (RR) from the electrocardiogram (ECG) and photoplethysmogram (PPG). As they have never been compared systematically it is unclear which algorithm performs the best. Our primary aim was to determine how closely algorithms agreed with a gold standard RR measure when operating under ideal conditions. Secondary aims were: (i) to compare algorithm performance with IP, the clinical standard for continuous respiratory rate measurement in spontaneously breathing patients; (ii) to compare algorithm performance when using ECG and PPG; and (iii) to provide a toolbox of algorithms and data to allow future researchers to conduct reproducible comparisons of algorithms. Algorithms were divided into three stages: extraction of respiratory signals, estimation of RR, and fusion of estimates. Several interchangeable techniques were implemented for each stage. Algorithms were assembled using all possible combinations of techniques, many of which were novel. After verification on simulated data, algorithms were tested on data from healthy participants. RRs derived from ECG, PPG and IP were compared to reference RRs obtained using a nasal-oral pressure sensor using the limits of agreement (LOA) technique. 314 algorithms were assessed. Of these, 270 could operate on either ECG or PPG, and 44 on only ECG. The best algorithm had 95% LOAs of  −4.7 to 4.7 bpm and a bias of 0.0 bpm when using the ECG, and  −5.1 to 7.2 bpm and 1.0 bpm when using PPG. IP had 95% LOAs of  −5.6 to 5.2 bpm and a bias of  −0.2 bpm. Four algorithms operating on ECG performed better than IP. All high-performing algorithms consisted of novel combinations of time domain RR estimation and modulation fusion techniques. Algorithms performed better when using ECG than PPG. The toolbox of algorithms and data used in this study are publicly available.