David A. Sampson

Direct and indirect estimates of Leaf Area Index (LAI) for lodgepole and loblolly pine stands

We compared direct and indirect estimates of leaf area index (LAI) for lodgepole and loblolly pine stands. Indirect estimates of LAI using radiative methods of the LI-COR LAI-2000 Plant Canopy Analyzer (PCA) did not correlate with allometric estimates for lodgepole pine, and correlated only weakly with litter-trap estimates for loblolly pine. The PCA consistently under-estimated LAI in lodgepole pine stands with high LAI, and over-estimated LAI in the loblolly pine stands with low LAI. We developed a physical model to test the hypothesis that the PCA may under-estimate LAI in high leaf area stands because of increased foliage overlap and, therefore, increased selfshading. Radiative estimates of LAI using the PCA for the physical model were consistenly lower than allometric measures. Results from the physical model suggested that increased foliage overlap decreased the ability of the PCA to accurately estimate LAI. The relationship between allometric and radiative measures suggested an upper asymptote in LAI estimated using the PCA. The PCA may not accurately estimate LAI in stands of low or high leaf area index, and the bias or error associated with these estimates probably depends on species and canopy structure. A species specific correction factor will not necessarily correct bias in LAI estimates using the PCA.

Light attenuation in a 14-year-old loblolly pine stand as influenced by fertilization and irrigation

Abstract We examined empirical and simulated estimates of canopy light attenuation at SETRES (Southeast Tree Research and Education Site), a 2×2 factorial study of water and nutrients. Fertilized plots had significantly lower under-canopy PAR transmittance (TC) when compared to non-fertilized plots. Light interception efficiency, as measured by the canopy cosine-corrected light extinction coefficient, G, was significantly lower in irrigated plots for all dates examined. Estimates of G ranged from a low of 0.36 in irrigated plots in September to a high of 0.64 in March for control plots. Study-wide analyses indicate that a G of 0.50 and a k (uncorrected light extinction coefficient) of 0.69 may be reasonable parameter estimates of canopy light extinction in intermediate-aged loblolly pine plantations across a range of stand conditions and seasons when site-specific data are unavailable. Simulated TC from our version of the BIOMASS model corresponded well to the empirical estimates. Varying the vertical distribution of foliage in simulations (from 10:60:30 to 40:40:10% in the upper, middle, and lower canopy positions, respectively) resulted in only a ±7% change in total PAR intercepted, whereas varying G from 0.3 to 0.7 resulted in a 67% and 31% increase in light intercepted for control and fertilized plots, respectively. Decreased G resulted in an increased proportion of beam radiation intercepted – 63–67% of total PAR intercepted – by the middle canopy where 55–60% of the foliage was found. We hypothesize that proportionally increased productivity observed in irrigated treatments may be attributed to increased beam radiation intercepted deeper into the canopy by a greater foliage area.

Leaf Area Index (LAI) of Loblolly Pine and Emergent Vegetation Following a Harvest

Forests provide goods and services to society and, often, refugia for plants and animals; forest managers utilize silviculture to provide ecosystem services and to create habitat. On the Coastal Plain of North Carolina, forest management objectives typically include wood fiber production but may also include the maintenance of environmental quality and, sometimes, species diversity. Silvicultural prescriptions alter stand structure and development trajectories by influencing the competitive interactions among plant species for site resources. Early site intervention may include nutrient additions and/or vegetation control; in coastal loblolly pine (Pinus taeda L.) stands, herbaceous and arborescent species can dominate the site leaf area index (LAI) for many years after a harvest (followed by planting). LAI is an important structural and functional component of a forest stand. Many eco‐hydrologic and water quality models do not accurately account for LAI as the process driver to evapotranspiration (ET), and thus they ignore the ecophysiological effects of LAI on site water balance and nutrient loading. We measured LAI of emergent vegetation following a harvest, mechanical site preparation, and then pine planting for a drained loblolly pine plantation in coastal North Carolina. For six years monthly, growing season estimates of LAI were obtained using a LI‐COR LAI 2000 Plant Canopy Analyzer (PCA) for control (D1), thinned (D3), and harvested (D2) watersheds. In this article, we present results from the D2 treatment. In D2, we “harvested” all emergent vegetation in 18 randomly placed 1 m2 clip plots for three growing seasons where we estimated LAI using species‐pooled estimates of specific leaf area and total leaf dry mass (i.e., LAICLIP); PCA measurements were recorded prior to clipping (LAIPCA). We also simulated loblolly pine seedling growth and development using the biogeochemical process model SECRETS‐3PG to examine site differentiation in LAI. Four years post‐harvest maximum LAICLIP exceeded 8 m2 m‐2 (projected area basis). LAIPCA underestimated LAICLIP; LAICLIP = 1.436 × LAIPCA (r2 = 0.53; p < 0.0001; n = 195). Corrected LAIPCA estimates exceeded simulated pine LAI (LAISIM) for ~4.5 years post‐planting. Emergent vegetation dominated the site for nearly five years and likely exerted a strong influence over site water balance and nutrient use during early stand development.

Socio-hydrology modelling for an uncertain future, with examples from the USA and Canada

Abstract Socio-hydrology brings an interest in human values, markets, social organizations and public policy to the traditional emphasis of water science on climate, hydrology, toxicology and ecology. It also conveys a decision focus in the form of decision support tools, stakeholder engagement and new knowledge about the science–policy interface. This paper demonstrates how policy decisions and human behaviour can be better integrated into climate and hydrological models to improve their usefulness for decision support. Examples from SW USA and western Canada highlight uncertainties, vulnerabilities and critical tradeoffs facing water decision makers in the face of rapidly changing environmental and societal conditions. Irreducible uncertainties in downscaled climate and hydrological models limit the usefulness of climate-driven, predict-and-plan methods of water resource planning and management. Thus, it is argued that such methods should be replaced by approaches that use exploratory modelling, scenario planning and risk assessment in which the emphasis is on managing uncertainty rather than on reducing it. Model fusion supports all of these processes in integrating human and biophysical aspects of water systems, allowing policy impacts to be quantified and clarified, and fostering public engagement with water resource modelling.

Spatial Optimization Models for Water Supply Allocation

Climate change is likely to result in increased aridity, lower runoff, and declining water supplies for the cities of the Southwestern United States, including Phoenix. The situation in Phoenix is particularly complicated by the large number of water providers, each with its own supply portfolio, demand conditions, and conservation strategies. This paper details spatial optimization models to support water supply allocation between service provider districts, where some districts experience deficits and others experience surpluses in certain years. The approach seeks to reconcile and integrate projections derived from a complex simulation model taking into account current and future climate conditions. The formulated and applied models are designed to help better understand the expected increasingly complex interactions of providers under conditions of climate change. Preliminary results show cooperative agreements would reduce spot shortages that would occur even without climate change. In addition, they would substantially reduce deficits if climate change were to moderately reduce river flows in Phoenix’s major source regions, but have little effect under the most pessimistic scenarios because there are few surpluses available for re-allocation.

A Climate Change Database for Biological Assessments in the Southeastern United States: Development and Case Study

A regional database containing historical time series and climate change scenarios for the Southeastern United States was developed for the U.S.D.A. Forest Service Southern Global Change Program (SGCP). Daily historical values of maximum temperature, minimum temperature and precipitation and empirically derived estimates of vapor pressure deficit and solar radiation across a uniform 1° latitude × 1° longitude grid were obtained. Climate change scenarios of temperature, precipitation, vapor pressure deficit and solar radiation were generated using semi-empirical techniques which combined historical time series and simulation field summaries from GISS, GFDL, OSU and UKMO General Circulation Model (GCM) experiments. An internally consistent 1° latitude × 1° longitude climate change scenario database was produced in which vapor pressure deficit and solar radiation conditions were driven by the GCM temperature projections, but were not constrained to agree with GCM calculated radiation and humidity fields. Some of the unique characteristics of the database were illustrated through a case study featuring growing season and annual potential evapotranspiration (ETp) estimates. Overall, the unconstrained scenarios produced smaller median ETp changes from historical baseline conditions, with a smaller range of outcomes than those driven by GCM-directed scenarios. Collectively, the range of annual and growing season ET changes from baseline estimates in response to the unconstrained climate scenarios was +10% to +40%. No outlier responses were identified. ETp changes driven by GCM-directed (constrained) UKMO radiation and humidity scenarios were on the order of +100%, resulting in the identification of some ETp responses as statistical outliers. These response differences were attributed to differences between the constrained and unconstrained humidity scenarios.

AN INDEX FOR ASSESSING CLIMATE CHANGE AND ELEVATED CARBON DIOXIDE EFFECTS ON LOBLOLLY PINE PRODUCTIVITY

Loblolly pine (Pinus taeda L.) forests represent the major forest type in the southern United States. The loblolly pine region extends from Delaware and centraI Maryland south to central Florida and west to eastern Oklahoma and Texas (Fowells, 1965). The wide range of loblolly pine largely results from its rapid growth and its successful adaptation to many varieties of soil types and environmental conditions. These and other factors have made loblolly pine an important commercial species in the region. However, although loblolly pine occurs on a many types of sites, its commercial value, as measured by net primary productivity (NPP), varies tremendously and is strongly determined by variability in the local climate and stand and site conditions (McNulty et al., 1997). Uncertainty regarding potential changes in climate as a result of increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration has caused concern for the future commercial viability of loblolly pine forests.