David A. Sheen

Unsupervised classification of petroleum Certified Reference Materials and other fuels by chemometric analysis of gas chromatography-mass spectrometry data

As feedstocks transition from conventional oil to unconventional petroleum sources and biomass, it will be necessary to determine whether a particular fuel or fuel blend is suitable for use in engines. Certifying a fuel as safe for use is time-consuming and expensive and must be performed for each new fuel. In principle, suitability of a fuel should be completely determined by its chemical composition. This composition can be probed through use of detailed analytical techniques such as gas chromatography-mass spectroscopy (GC-MS). In traditional analysis, chromatograms would be used to determine the details of the composition. In the approach taken in this paper, the chromatogram is assumed to be entirely representative of the composition of a fuel, and is used directly as the input to an algorithm in order to develop a model that is predictive of a fuels suitability. When a new fuel is proposed for service, its suitability for any application could then be ascertained by using this model to compare its chromatogram with those of the fuels already known to be suitable for that application. In this paper, we lay the mathematical and informatics groundwork for a predictive model of hydrocarbon properties. The objective of this work was to develop a reliable model for unsupervised classification of the hydrocarbons as a prelude to developing a predictive model of their engine-relevant physical and chemical properties. A set of hydrocarbons including biodiesel fuels, gasoline, highway and marine diesel fuels, and crude oils was collected and GC-MS profiles obtained. These profiles were then analyzed using multi-way principal components analysis (MPCA), principal factors analysis (PARAFAC), and a self-organizing map (SOM), which is a kind of artificial neural network. It was found that, while MPCA and PARAFAC were able to recover descriptive models of the fuels, their linear nature obscured some of the finer physical details due to the widely varying composition of the fuels. The SOM was able to find a descriptive classification model which has the potential for practical recognition and perhaps prediction of fuel properties.

Classification of biodegradable materials using QSAR modelling with uncertainty estimation

Abstract The ability to determine the biodegradability of chemicals without resorting to expensive tests is ecologically and economically desirable. Models based on quantitative structure–activity relations (QSAR) provide some promise in this direction. However, QSAR models in the literature rarely provide uncertainty estimates in more detail than aggregated statistics such as the sensitivity and specificity of the model’s predictions. Almost never is there a means of assessing the uncertainty in an individual prediction. Without an uncertainty estimate, it is impossible to assess the trustworthiness of any particular prediction, which leaves the model with a low utility for regulatory purposes. In the present work, a QSAR model with uncertainty estimates is used to predict biodegradability for a set of substances from a publicly available data set. Separation was performed using a partial least squares discriminant analysis model, and the uncertainty was estimated using bootstrapping. The uncertainty prediction allows for confidence intervals to be assigned to any of the model’s predictions, allowing for a more complete assessment of the model than would be possible through a traditional statistical analysis. The results presented here are broadly applicable to other areas of modelling as well, because the calculation of the uncertainty will clearly demonstrate where additional tests are needed.

A scoring metric for multivariate data for reproducibility analysis using chemometric methods

Process quality control and reproducibility in emerging measurement fields such as metabolomics is normally assured by interlaboratory comparison testing. As a part of this testing process, spectral features from a spectroscopic method such as nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) spectroscopy are attributed to particular analytes within a mixture, and it is the metabolite concentrations that are returned for comparison between laboratories. However, data quality may also be assessed directly by using binned spectral data before the time-consuming identification and quantification. Use of the binned spectra has some advantages, including preserving information about trace constituents and enabling identification of process difficulties. In this paper, we demonstrate the use of binned NMR spectra to conduct a detailed interlaboratory comparison and composition analysis. Spectra of synthetic and biologically-obtained metabolite mixtures, taken from a previous interlaboratory study, are compared with cluster analysis using a variety of distance and entropy metrics. The individual measurements are then evaluated based on where they fall within their clusters, and a laboratory-level scoring metric is developed, which provides an assessment of each laboratorys individual performance.

Classification of samples from NMR-based metabolomics using principal components analysis and partial least squares with uncertainty estimation

AbstractRecent progress in metabolomics has been aided by the development of analysis techniques such as gas and liquid chromatography coupled with mass spectrometry (GC-MS and LC-MS) and nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) spectroscopy. The vast quantities of data produced by these techniques has resulted in an increase in the use of machine algorithms that can aid in the interpretation of this data, such as principal components analysis (PCA) and partial least squares (PLS). Techniques such as these can be applied to biomarker discovery, interlaboratory comparison, and clinical diagnoses. However, there is a lingering question whether the results of these studies can be applied to broader sets of clinical data, usually taken from different data sources. In this work, we address this question by creating a metabolomics workflow that combines a previously published consensus analysis procedure (https://doi.org/10.1016/j.chemolab.2016.12.010) with PCA and PLS models using uncertainty analysis based on bootstrapping. This workflow is applied to NMR data that come from an interlaboratory comparison study using synthetic and biologically obtained metabolite mixtures. The consensus analysis identifies trusted laboratories, whose data are used to create classification models that are more reliable than without. With uncertainty analysis, the reliability of the classification can be rigorously quantified, both for data from the original set and from new data that the model is analyzing. Graphical abstractᅟ