David B. Reister

Total costs of energy services

An energy service may be defined as a measure of the service actually provided to ultimate consumers by their own use of energy, quantified, for example, by using units of work or of heat at various temperatures. In this paper, we present estimates of total costs of 15 energy services for the year 1972. These costs include the cost of producing and distributing commercial forms of energy, the cost of the equipment that utilizes this energy in providing services, and the cost of operating and maintaining the end-use equipment. The overall cost of energy service in 1972 is estimated to be nearly

Energy demand models based on the translog and CES functions

400 billion, a figure equal to magnitude to about one-third of the 1972 gross national product. Categories of energy services are identified in which major technological changes in the manner of providing the service might make the greatest difference in the overall cost of energy service.

The energy embodied in goods

The translog function is a flexible form but does not have good global properties. The CES function has good global properties but is not a flexible form. For energy demand models that should be valid in a large domain, global properties are important.

An analysis of industrial demand for natural gas

This paper describes why the use of cost estimates can be source of uncertainty in net energy analysis. This occurs when costs are expressed in prices not equal to those used for price deflators. This uncertainty is reduced by estimating average prices for selected goods and services in units of 1967 dollars per ton. When the average prices are multiplied by energy-intensity coefficients, which have units of Btu per 1967 dollar, the result is energy-intensity coefficients which have units of Btu per ton.

Use of Energy Scenarios in Addressing the CO2 Question

Several analysts have proposed the theory that there is a frustrated demand for natural gas in the United States. According to this theory, the natural gas curtailments of the 1970s have convinced industrial users that natural gas is not reliably available. The users are willing to buy fuel oil at a premium and store it to assure a reliable energy supply. If this theory is correct, as the supply of natural gas becomes more reliable, natural gas should be able to recapture the market share it lost to fuel oil.

Energy conservation—the post-embargo record

A reference scenario for CO2 emissions was developed using a model of world energy supply and demand. In the reference scenario, world GNP and world energy demand increase at average rates of 2.1 percent per year and 1.5 percent per year, respectively during the period 1975-2100. The corresponding annual CO2 emissions rise to a maximum of 16 gigatons of carbon around 2050 and then decline as a result of a transition to nonfossil fuel energy systems. A modified scenario for high CO2 emissions was obtained by assuming an abundant supply of low cost coal, thus eliminating the transition. A low case was developed in which the low cost of alternative energy (i.e., solar, nuclear) induces an earlier shift away from fossil fuels. Annual emissions of the three scenarios were used as input to a global carbon cycle model and the CO2 buildup in the atmosphere during the period 1980-2100 was determined by the model. All three scenarios showed continuous rises in atmospheric CO2 concentration. The reference scenario r...

Net energy analysis of in situ oil shale processing

The best measure of energy conservation is a change in the ratio of energy demand and GNP. In the last decade, the ratio decreased by 16%.

The use of a simple model in conjunction with a detailed carbon dioxide emissions model

Although the domestic resources of shale oil are large, there has been some question regarding the magnitude of the energy subsidy that must be committed in order to extract the contained oil. This study shows that for a 50,000 b/d, modified in-situ extraction facility in 20-gal-per-ton Green River Shale, the energy yield is about 8.6 times the energy subsidy and that about 21 percent of the in-place oil can be thus recovered. If the mined-out shale is retorted at the surface rather than being discarded, the recovery factor rises to 37 percent and the net energy ratio should rise significantly as well. It is difficult to compare these figures with those for aboveground retorts because oil burned in place for retorting never enters the energy accounts. However, the resource commitment per unit of recovered energy is more easily compared and is essentially indicated by the reciprocal of the recovery fraction.

Simple models for the consumption rate of fossil fuel

We show how a simple model can be used in conjunction with an elaborate model to develop carbon dioxide emission scenarios. For both models, the carbon supply curves are the most important determinants. For the simple model, the carbon supply curves are endogenous while they are exogenous for the elaborate model. Two carbon dioxide emission scenarios have been developed by using the simple model in conjunction with the elaborate model.

The impact of energy conservation incentives for the industrial sector

Energy consumption models are useful in the analysis of many energy and resource problems. Fossil fuel consumption models are especially useful in forecasting future atmospheric CO2 levels. Simple models are frequently used to develop scenarios. In CO2 analysis, two logistic type models have been used to construct scenarios of fossil fuel consumption. In this paper, economic theory is used to derive a new model. The previous logistic type models are shown to be special cases of the new model.