James A. Edmonds

Implications of Limiting CO2 Concentrations for Land Use and Energy

The Power of Green Carbon dioxide is produced both by fossil fuel burning and by deforestation and other land-use changes. Limiting both sources of CO2 is necessary if we are to curb global warming. Wise et al. (p. 1183) use an integrated assessment model to explore the consequences of limiting atmospheric CO2 concentrations at levels between 450 and 550 parts per million through a combination of fossil-fuel emissions reductions and land-use modification. Land-use modification strategies reduce the cost of limiting atmospheric CO2 concentrations, but can make crop prices rise and transform human diets, for example, when people consume less beef and other carbon-intensive protein sources. The rate at which crop productivity is improved has a strong influence on emissions from land-use change. Thus, the technology used for growing crops is potentially as important for limiting atmospheric CO2 as are approaches like CO2 capture and storage. Technologies for growing crops are potentially as important for limiting the concentration of atmospheric CO2 as are those for capture and storage. Limiting atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations to low levels requires strategies to manage anthropogenic carbon emissions from terrestrial systems as well as fossil fuel and industrial sources. We explore the implications of fully integrating terrestrial systems and the energy system into a comprehensive mitigation regime that limits atmospheric CO2 concentrations. We find that this comprehensive approach lowers the cost of meeting environmental goals but also carries with it profound implications for agriculture: Unmanaged ecosystems and forests expand, and food crop and livestock prices rise. Finally, we find that future improvement in food crop productivity directly affects land-use change emissions, making the technology for growing crops potentially important for limiting atmospheric CO2 concentrations.

Climate Change Impacts for the Conterminous USA: An Integrated Assessment

This special issue of Climatic Change describes an effort to improve methodology for integrated assessment of impacts and consequences of climatic change. Highlights of the seven foregoing Parts (papers) that constitute this special issue are summarized here. The methodology developed involves construction of scenarios of climate change that are used to drive individual sectoral models for simulating impacts on crop production, irrigation demand, water supply and change in productivity and geography of unmanaged ecosystems. Economic impacts of the changes predicted by integrating the results of the several sectoral simulation models are calculated through an agricultural land-use model. While these analyses were conducted for the conterminous United States alone, their global implications are also considered in this summary as is the need for further improvements in integrated assessment methodology.

Hell and High Water: Practice-Relevant Adaptation Science

Adaptation requires science that analyzes decisions, identifies vulnerabilities, improves foresight, and develops options. Informing the extensive preparations needed to manage climate risks, avoid damages, and realize emerging opportunities is a grand challenge for climate change science. U.S. President Obama underscored the need for this research when he made climate preparedness a pillar of his climate policy. Adaptation improves preparedness and is one of two broad and increasingly important strategies (along with mitigation) for climate risk management. Adaptation is required in virtually all sectors of the economy and regions of the globe, for both built and natural systems (1).

Renewable Energy in the Context of Sustainable Development

See next page for additional authors Follow this and additional works at: http://ecommons.udayton.edu/phy_fac_pub Part of the Environmental Education Commons, Environmental Health and Protection Commons, Environmental Indicators and Impact Assessment Commons, Environmental Monitoring Commons, Natural Resource Economics Commons, Natural Resources and Conservation Commons, Natural Resources Management and Policy Commons, Oil, Gas, and Energy Commons, Other Environmental Sciences Commons, Sustainability Commons, and the Water Resource Management Commons

Can Paris pledges avert severe climate change

Reducing risks of severe outcomes and improving chances of limiting warming to 2°C Current international climate negotiations seek to catalyze global emissions reductions through a system of nationally determined country-level emissions reduction targets that would be regularly updated. These “Intended Nationally Determined Contributions” (INDCs) would constitute the core of mitigation commitments under any agreement struck at the upcoming Paris Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) (1). With INDCs now reported from more than 150 countries and covering around 90% of global emissions, we can begin to assess the role of this round of INDCs in facilitating or frustrating achievement of longer-term climate goals. In this context, it is important to understand what these INDCs collectively deliver in terms of two objectives. First, how much do they reduce the probability of the highest levels of global mean surface temperature change? Second, how much do they improve the odds of achieving the international goal of limiting temperature change to under 2°C relative to preindustrial levels (2)? Although much discussion has focused on the latter objective (3–5), the former is equally important when viewing climate mitigation from a risk-management perspective.

Stabilizing CO 2 concentrations with incomplete international cooperation

Many stabilization scenarios have examined the implications of stabilization on the assumption that all regions and all sectors of all of the worlds economies undertake emissions mitigations wherever and whenever it is cheapest to do so. This idealized assumption is just one of many ways in which emissions mitigation actions could play out globally, but not necessarily the most likely. This paper explores the implications of generic policy regimes that lead to stabilization of CO2 concentrations under conditions in which non-Annex I regions delay emissions reductions and in which carbon prices vary across participating regions. The resulting stabilization scenarios are contrasted with the idealized results. Delays in the date by which non-Annex I regions begin to reduce emissions raise the price of carbon in Annex I regions relative to the price of carbon in Annex I in an idealized regime for any given CO2 concentration limit. This effect increases the longer the delay in non-Annex I accession, the lower the non-Annex I carbon prices relative to the Annex I prices, and the more stringent the stabilization level. The effect of delay is very pronounced when CO2 concentrations are stabilized at 450 ppmv, however the effect is much less pronounced at 550 ppmv and above. For long delays in non-Annex I accession, 450 ppmv stabilization levels become infeasible.

Modelling energy technologies in a competitive market

Abstract Energy / economic models must predict the mix of energy technologies in competitive energy markets. We examine a market composed of several competing technologies with geographically heterogeneous cost distributions. An approach for determining both the market share and average market cost of energy produced by these technologies is derived. The formalism developed, which is based on a conditional least cost distribution function, can be used to correct the convertional logit treatment of these quantities in several existing models and to better interpret empirical data in order to determine more realistic cost distribution functions for energy technologies.

Climate mitigation and the future of tropical landscapes

Land-use change to meet 21st-century demands for food, fuel, and fiber will depend on many interactive factors, including global policies limiting anthropogenic climate change and realized improvements in agricultural productivity. Climate-change mitigation policies will alter the decision-making environment for land management, and changes in agricultural productivity will influence cultivated land expansion. We explore to what extent future increases in agricultural productivity might offset conversion of tropical forest lands to crop lands under a climate mitigation policy and a contrasting no-policy scenario in a global integrated assessment model. The Global Change Assessment Model is applied here to simulate a mitigation policy that stabilizes radiative forcing at 4.5 W m−2 (approximately 526 ppm CO2) in the year 2100 by introducing a price for all greenhouse gas emissions, including those from land use. These scenarios are simulated with several cases of future agricultural productivity growth rates and the results downscaled to produce gridded maps of potential land-use change. We find that tropical forests are preserved near their present-day extent, and bioenergy crops emerge as an effective mitigation option, only in cases in which a climate mitigation policy that includes an economic price for land-use emissions is in place, and in which agricultural productivity growth continues throughout the century. We find that idealized land-use emissions price assumptions are most effective at limiting deforestation, even when cropland area must increase to meet future food demand. These findings emphasize the importance of accounting for feedbacks from land-use change emissions in global climate change mitigation strategies.

Carbon taxes and India

Using the Indian module of the Second Generation Model (SGM), we explore a reference case and three scenarios in which greenhouse gas emissions were controlled. Two alternative policy instruments (carbon taxes and tradable permits) were analyzed to determine comparative costs of stabilizing emissions at (1) 1990 levels (the 1X case), (2) two times the 1990 levels (the 2X case), and (3) three times the 1990 levels (the 3X case). The analysis takes into account Indias rapidly growing population and the abundance of coal and biomass relative to other fuels. We also explore the impacts of a global tradable permits market to stabilize global carbon emissions on the Indian economy under the following two emissions allowance allocation methods. 1. 1. Grandfathered emissions: emissions allowances are allocated based on 1990 emissions. 2. 2. Equal per capita emissions: emissions allowances are allocated based on share of global population. Tradable permits represent a lower-cost method to stabilize Indian emissions than carbon taxes, i.e. global action would benefit India more than independent actions.

Greenhouse Gas Policy Influences Climate via Direct Effects of Land-Use Change

AbstractProposed climate mitigation measures do not account for direct biophysical climate impacts of land-use change (LUC), nor do the stabilization targets modeled for phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) representative concentration pathways (RCPs). To examine the significance of such effects on global and regional patterns of climate change, a baseline and an alternative scenario of future anthropogenic activity are simulated within the Integrated Earth System Model, which couples the Global Change Assessment Model, Global Land-Use Model, and Community Earth System Model. The alternative scenario has high biofuel utilization and approximately 50% less global forest cover than the baseline, standard RCP4.5 scenario. Both scenarios stabilize radiative forcing from atmospheric constituents at 4.5 W m−2 by 2100. Thus, differences between their climate predictions quantify the biophysical effects of LUC. Offline radiative transfer and land model simulations are also utilized to iden...